Masters Tournament

The Masters

It was another disappointing week for us in Texas as we failed to bag any returns.

After one of our main fancies Daniel Berger withdrew before the off we were left with a team of four heading in to the week.

Across the week at differing stages they all produced some decent stuff however unfortunately none could string four rounds together [or in Karl Vilips’ case two] and it was left to Si Woo Kim to make a Sunday charge for us before ultimately falling a couple of shots shy of the places.

The event was won by JJ Spaun who defied his really poor 2026 to date to show us that a return to the scene of a previous victory can often reinvigorate a player. With Spaun bagging his first win since last years US Open triumph after Brian harman did similar last year following his Open win perhaps the way forward here is to back a Major Champion who is looking to follow up that win!

Talking of Majors… we move on and what a week it promises to be as we head in to one of the most eagerly anticipated weeks of the year in the golfing calendar, Masters week.

As always the course will be looking resplendent with the Azaleas in full spring bloom and the greens perfectly manicured.

Regular PGA Tour golf watchers will also be able to relax and enjoy the golf knowing that no ‘patron’ will dare shout “Mashed Potato” or “Bababooey” as Bryson launches one off the 13^th tee [as if they do they will be very quickly evicted from the premises and never allowed to return].

In addition seasoned golf watchers can enjoy our annual game of ‘golf commentator cliché bingo’. Yes you know the ones, “No winner of the Par 3 competition has ever gone on to win the Masters”, “It’s like putting down a marble staircase” and of course the classic “The Masters doesn’t start till the back nine on Sunday”, [which needless to say is complete and utter nonsense!]

The spectacle and history we will be presented with this week are of course matched by the cast and storylines we have coming in.

Will Scottie Scheffler rediscover his air of invincibility bag his third Green Jacket in five years? With the pressure now off can Rory McIlroy defend? Will Bryson Dechambeau finally master Augusta or can Jon Rahm bag a second Green Jacket

The betting market as one would expect is still dominated by Scheffler while McIlroy, Rahm and Dechambeau battle it out for second favourite spot. This four are then followed by Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele and the in form Matt Fitzpatrick.

COURSE

Augusta National is a Par 72 which last year after some tinkering will officially played to 7510with 30yds or so added.

Three years ago changes were made to the 11^th and 15^th. Eleven had 15 yards added and some trees removed on the right hand side of the fairway. The aim was to stop players simply bailing out right off the tee while still having a decent look at their second shot in as errant tee shots became faced with additional faster running landing areas, with players blocked out for their second shot behind the trees further down the right hand side.

Meanwhile the par five 15^th hole had 20yds added meaning players have to put a bit more thought in to their second shots with regards to carrying the water.

2023 then saw some further changes made with the lengthening of the par five 13^th hole the change, which has garnered the most publicity. The tweak here has saw a new tee box installed adding a potential 35yds in length. The result being a bit like the change to the 15^th last year that the ‘risk v the reward’ of going for it in two will become greater.

Last year saw some further tweaks with the second hole having a new tee box added, which will add a further 10yds to the hole if used.

Finally this year we are likely to see some further changes, mostly more aesthetically due to some trees coming down in the hurricane last November, that said the official yardage heading in to this week is still noted as 7555yds.

The course was designed by Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones and was opened for play in 1933 before undergoing a redesign in 2008.

The greens are Bentgrass and tend to run at 13+ on the stimpmeter.

The key to success at Augusta is twofold. Firstly, you have to take advantage of the four Par 5’s, particularly, even with their greater length, the 13th and 15^th and secondly you have to minimise your mistakes on the par 4’s. Strong iron play is imperative to find the right spots on the greens.

Find yourself on the wrong level on green and it can be almost impossible to get down in two and make par.

HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the winners going back to 2013.

2025 Rory McIlroy

2024 Scottie Scheffler.

2023 Jon Rahm

2022 Scottie Scheffler

2021 Hideki Matsuyama

2020 Dustin Johnson [played in November conditions].

2019 Tiger Woods

2018 Patrick Reed

2017 Sergio Garcia

2016 Danny Willett

2015 Jordan Spieth

2014 Bubba Watson

2013 Adam Scott

So what does this tell us? Well interestingly and perhaps unexpectedly players right at the top of the market certainly haven’t had it all their own way over recent years with regards to winning with the champion often coming from that ‘just below the leading pack’ section. For example 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama was a 45/1 chance while the 2018 winner Patrick Reed was a 50/1 shot, Sergio was a 40/1+ shot whilst the previous year Danny Willett was a 66-1 shot.

The 2019, 2020 and 2022 winners did somewhat buck this trend though as in 2019 Tiger Woods arrived here as a 16-1 shot while Dustin Johnson went off as a 9/1 November 2020 with Bryson Dechambeau marginally pipping him to favouritism. 2022 Champion Scheffler was of course a well fancied 16/1 shot, while Rahm went off very well fancied at 9/1 in 2023 but none were favourites. Scheffler did buck this trend in 2024 as he started the week a very warm favourite at 4/1, while McIlroy was second favourite heading in to last year.

Eight of the last 11 winners had already won an event that calendar year with Matsuyama, Woods and Reed the most recent not to have done so.

As we know some experience of the course here is vital with no rookie having won here for many, many years with Fuzzy Zoeller way back in 1979 the most recent to manage that achievement.

There is precedent of winning here after just one start though with Willett, Spieth and Schwartzel all doing it over recent years.

It is important to note though that all of these three had finished inside the top 40 on their Masters debut the previous year, with Spieth finishing 2^nd the year before. In fact all of the last ten winners here had posted a previous top forty finish in the event.

As for recent form coming in to the event this historically can also be seen as quite key with nine of the last 11 winners of April Masters having posted a top fifteen finish on Tour in March or April, while Dustin Johnson tee’d it up in November on the back of a run of 2 1 2 1 6 2! Surprisingly an exception to this was Jon Rahm in 2023 who in his three starts in March had posted nothing better than 31^st. Of course though before cooling of in March the Spaniard had three wins and had not been outside of the top eight in his first seven starts of the year.

2022 and 2024 winner Scheffler gave us another obvious April example of how ‘hot form’ is key as he triumphed here in 2022 on the back of three wins and a seventh in his previous five starts, while in 2024 he had two wins, a second, a third and a lowly tenth in his previous five starts! Finally McIlroy rubber stamped this again last year having triumphed at Sawgrass in his penultimate start before winning here before warming up with a fifth place in Texas.

Equally though it is not, if history is anything to go by, essential the winner arrives here in peak form and the 2021 champion Matsuyama who is the other odd one out alongside Rahm in this category with regards to a top 15 finish, had posted finishes of 30 42 MC 18 in his March and April tour starts. He did though finish 15^th at the WGC Concession in his previous start, which finished on the 28^th Feb!

Dustin Johnson also broke the hoodoo in 2020, which had seen none of the previous ten editions won by the player who had started the week as the number one ranked golfer in the world, a feat which Scheffler obviously matched last year.

From a statistical point of view there is no doubt that distance off the tee has become more important over recent years with no recognised short hitter having triumphed here since Zach Johnson memorably laid up on all the par fives. Alongside this no doubt the key to unlocking Augusta is strong approach play to find the right level on the greens. Equally while there is always a lot of focus in the media on the winner needing a great putting touch to handle the notoriously quick greens players known as poorer putters actually have a strong record here with Matsuyama, Garcia and indeed Scheffler to an extent examples of recent winners who struggle in this department.

Looking at the winning score over the past ten years and if we put to one side Johnson’s 20- under total in softer November conditions, a week, which also saw Cameron Smith become the first player in Masters History to shoot all four rounds in the 60s, the lowest winning total since 2010 was posted by Jordan Spieth in 2015 on 18- under, while the highest was from Danny Willett on 5- under in 2016.

As you can see this spans quite a range with somewhere around 9- under to 14- under tending to be the mark with McIlroy and Scheffler both posting 11- under over the past two years, Rahm posting 12- under in 2023 the previous two champions Matsuyama and Scheffler on his first win having both triumphed on a 10- under total.

WEATHER FORECAST

Fingers crossed we look set for a warm, dry, mostly sunny week and therefore the potential for a firm, fast Augusta.

Temperatures look set to sit around the high 70s/low 80s all week.

Wind does look to be too much of an issue as a whole however at the time of writing Thursday does show the potential for gusts of 20mph plus in the forecast.

As I always so though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

JON RAHM – 11/1 – 4pts Win. - FINISHED 38th

I will start off this week with Jon Rahm.

In all honesty with question marks over both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy it is hard to ignore the credentials of Bryson Dechambeau and Rahm. Despite Dechambeau’s significant improvement at Augusta over the past couple of years I still have my doubts about his iron play and short game around here under pressure and with a dry, firm, fast Augusta in the forecast it is Rahm who gets the nod.

After undoubtedly struggling in 2024 to adjust to life on the LIV Tour while keeping competitively sharp for the Majors, Rahm looked in 2025 to have found a much better balance on this front.

Rahm started his 2025 Major campaign slowly with a poor 75 on day one at Augusta before working his way through the field to finish 14^th.

He then followed this with a top ten at the PGA where he made a great final day charge to put pressure on Scottie Scheffler and another top ten at the US Open, before a disappointing Open Championship, still a much better Major campaign than the previous year.

On to this year then and with the move on LIV to 72 holes no doubt favouring him the Spaniard has finished no worse than fifth in the five LIV events he has played with a win and three runner up finishes in the other four starts. Clearly then he arrives here in really strong form, which is more often than not the case for a Masters Champion.

Moving on to his history at Augusta and If you put to one side his 45^th place in 2024, when he had the double distraction of being the defending champion and all the noise around his recent move to LIV, his record at the Masters is superb with five top tens in his previous six visits including the win. Basically his game is tailor made for the challenge.

There is certainly a precedent for players who have landed their maiden Green Jacket to then regain it in not long after with Scheffler and Bubba Watson both bagging their second Green Jacket two years after their first and I can see Rahm adding a second to his collection this week.

LUDVIG ABERG –  14/1 – 3pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 21st

Next up while I understand many will baulk at his odds I just can’t get away from Ludvig Aberg.

Heralded as a generational talent when he first burst on to the scene in 2023 many would have expected Ludvig to have a much better win return than two PGA titles and one DP World Tour by now.

The elephant in the room then is the reason Aberg has not double this total or more is that he has shown major frailties on Sundays when the heat is on.

The most recent of these meltdowns came of course at Sawgrass when after holding a three shot lead heading in to Sunday he limped to a closing 76 after he dropped three shots over the 11^th and 12^th holes finding the water twice.

Question marks no doubt then, however we only need look at the man who did land the trophy at Sawgrass that Sunday, Cameron Young, to see that squandering opportunities to win is invariably a learning curve that most marquee names go through before it all clicks.

So what of Aberg’s chances this week? Well firstly of course despite the disappointment of The Players he arrives here in great form with three straight top five finishes. The latest of these came in Texas at the weekend where he had a solid warm up to finish fifth.

Then we only need look at his record at Augusta where he has finished second and seventh in his two starts to date to know that he is ideally suited to the track.

A look at the Swede’s stats for 2026 to date shows that every part of his game is in solid working order. At the very least then, and with the form he arrives in, it is hard to see him being out of the frame come Sunday and I am happy to chance that this is the week it all clicks for him.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA – 33/1 – 2 pts e/w - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 12th

Next up in I am going to take a chance on Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama’s finest hour of course came when winning here in 2021.

Traditionally the Masters winner has shown red hot form in the year prior to that win, more often than not having posted a victory along the way, however Hideki bucked that trend the year of his victory having not posted a top ten all year and nothing better than 30^th in his previous three starts.

This year the Japanese star once more comes in under the radar however unlike in 2021 his form in 2026 to date has been really solid making every single cut with a best of second in Phoenix where he let a great winning chance slip away.

Since that disappointment in the Desert it is fair to say Hideki has been solid but unspectacular however his long game remains in strong shape. This can be seen from his numbers in Texas last week where he ranked third off the tee and ninth in approach play.

The possessor of a superb touch around the greens as we know the crux for Matsuyama is whether the flat stick cooperates.

On his day Hideki is as good as any out there, something we saw when he closed out with a 62 to take the title at Riviera a couple of years ago and with that layout correlating excellently here it is another reminder that a second Green Jacket is well within his compass.

I’ll take Hideki then to make a big run to bagging his second Major this week.

NICOLAI HOJGAARD –  66/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

With question marks about the ‘big two’ and with several big names arriving here having not played for a few weeks it is just possible we see a rare ‘shock’ Augusta winner this year and if that is to be the case the man to deliver could just be Nicolai Hojgaard.

Perhaps spurred on by the disappointment of missing out on the 2025 Ryder Cup Nicolai has started 2026 in a really strong vein of form posting three top tens and making all of his cuts. The most recent of these top tens came a couple of weeks ago in Houston where the Dane bagged second place behind runaway winner Gary Woodland and in doing so secured his spot in this weeks field.

Looking at Nicolai’s stats for this year and it is not surprising his results have been so solid as he has been really strong in all departments, he ranks 15^th from tee to green, 12^th in approach play and 22^nd in putting. Basically everything is working really well.

A three time winner on the DP World Tour Nicolai is yet to win stateside however his win in the DP World Tour Championship at a venue that links well here, shows us he is more than capable of winning in big company.

This week will represent Nicolai’s third start at Augusta. Last year saw him miss the cut, a performance which came in the midst of a really poor run of form, the previous year though he showed good promise to finish 16^th on debut.

Those with long memories will remember Thomas Bjorn coming close to bagging Denmark’s first Major at Sandwich many years ago and it could just be that Nicolai can finally manage the feat this week.

 KURT KITAYAMA – 150/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 51st

Next up for me is Kurt Kitayama.

A winner at Bay Hill in 2023 Kitayama bounced back to form in 2025 landing his second PGA Tour title at the 3M Open when we were on board. Since then he has continued to play solidly posting three further top 20s to wrap up 2025 and missing only on cut so far this year at Sawgrass.

Kurt’s highlight so far this year was a second place at Riviera and if you add that to his win at Bay Hill we have two great pieces of form at correlating courses, while it is clear that he has the skill set to produce on tough, demanding layouts.

With regards to his form here and in Majors Kitayama has a top five to his name in the PGA while after missing the cut on his debut at Augusta he finished 35^th on his most recent visit in 2024 when he closed out with a 68.

Longer than average off the tee and 11^th on tour in approach play Kurt has the required attributes to play well here and as a player who on his day is not afraid to compete in big company he could just surprise a few this week.

DAVIS RILEY – 200/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 12 - FINISHED MC

Finally I will wrap things up by taking a chance on an old friend of this column Davis Riley.

I rolled the dice on Riley at huge odds each way on his Augusta debut last year as I had a feeling that he would take to the venue and while he didn’t bring us a return he certainly gave enough pointers posting two rounds of 69 on his way to 21^st that my view wasn’t wrong.

As we all know Riley is very much a mercurial player who at his best can mix it with the best, while at his worst can go on long runs of poor form looking all at sea.

After starting 2026 with a sixth place at the Sony it must be said it has been very much the latter rather than the former from Riley however last time out he showed some signs of life notching a round of 65 in Houston.

Davis earned his place here this week as a result of a second place finish in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last year, a result which showed us again that when his game is ‘on’ he is capable of competing on the biggest of stages, while it also showed us again that his game stands up well on a tough Major set up. Riley also delivered that performance on the back of a missed cut the week before in the opposite field event at Myrtle Beach so clearly he is a player who can find his form out of nowhere when the mood takes him.

I’ll take my chance then that Riley can show his pedigree again this week and threaten the frame at huge odds.

UPDATED 8th APRIL

FIRST ROUND LEADER - SUNGJAE IM  55/1 - 1pt E/W & JAKE KNAPP 55/1 1pt E/W - Both 1/5 1st 6. - NO RETURN

With potential for the wind to increase as the day progresses I will take Jake Knapp who tees off at 9.19am local time & Sungjae Im who tees off at 11.03am in the first round leader market..

Im returned to action recently following a wrist injury and was right in the hunt at the Valspar on Sunday having opened the week with a 64.

The Korean has become something of an Augusta specialist notching fout top 16 finishes here including three top tens. He lead the field on day one in 2022 while also making the day one frame in 2020 albeit in November conditions. I'll take him to start quickly again this week.

Knapp meanwhile has been on fire this year with six top 11 finishes in seven starts. He also sits 13th in day one scoring on tour this year with three 66s and a 67 to his name.

Long off the tee and with a great touch on the greens he could have a great week and I can see him getting out of the blocks quickly.