The Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational

It was another week of knocking on the door for us Pebble Beach as our 50/1 pick Sepp Straka finished in second place while Shane Lowry finished in a logjam tie for eighth to bag us a further small return.

Straka had entered Sunday two shots off the 54 hole leader Akshay Bhatia, playing in the final group, however he unfortunately struggled for most of the day. With the place money looking gone though the Austrian finished like a train and a closing eagle could have actually seen him in a play off had eventual winner Colling Morikawa not got up and down for birdie from the side of the green on the final hole.

It was a long overdue return to the winners enclosure for Morikawa and he deserves a lot of credit to how he closed things out on the final hole after he was left waiting for 20 mins in the fairway to play his second shot as Jacob Bridgeman was facing all kinds of issues literally on the beach. It will be interesting to see if this win now heralds the return of the Morikawa that bagged two Majors or if it is a false dawn.

So, we move on and after four weeks on the West Coast the tour moves to Pacific Palisades,  to the iconic Riviera Country Club for the final leg of the West Coast Swing.

The Genesis Open was first held in 1926.

Its previous names have included the Los Angeles Open, The Nissan Open and The Northern Trust Open before Genesis Motors took over as the title sponsor in 2017.

The tournament has been held at the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades on a pretty much continuous basis since 1973.

Last year though of course due to the tragic wild fires in the Los Angeles area the event relocated to Torrey Pines. This year though I am delighted to say we return to the iconic LA layout.

2020 saw a change as with effect from then the tournament was given Invitational status. As a result of this the field size was slightly reduced to 120 compared to other PGA Tour events. In addition the winner here will receive a three year tour exemption compared to the usual two.

This year the event is the second of this season’s ‘Signature Events’ and like last week at Pebble Beach there is a limited field in attendance.  Unlike last week though this week will see a 36 hole cut with the top 50 and ties plus those within ten shots of the lead through 36 holes playing the weekend.

The final field will be made up of last seasons top 50, ‘the next ten, the ‘swing five’ and sponsors invitations.

The field needless to say is a stellar one with Scottie Scheffler naturally heading the market from Rory McIlroy. This pair are then followed by Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffele.

COURSE

Riviera Country Club is seen as a classical test and features tight, tree lined fairways. Accuracy of the tee has historically been seen as key here although over recent years it has become more of a bombers paradise, particularly when the course has been wet.

Riviera is a par 71 playing to just over 7300 yards.

The greens are Poa Annua.

One of the key features of the course is the Kikuyugrass rough which is very rare for a US course. It is however found on South African and Australian courses and therefore both South African and Australian players do have a good record here.

For those looking to trade in running the par 5 1^st hole is basically the easiest hole on the course and is a ‘must birdie’ hole. If you make Par you are certainly dropping a shot to the field.

The driveable par 4 10^th to me is one of the best holes played on tour all year. At 315yds an eagle 2 is in theory achievable but if you fail to hit the right spot off the tee a bogey 5 quickly comes in to play.

HISTORY

So, ignoring last years edition held at Torrey Pines and won by Ludvig Aberg, let’s take a look at the winners going back to 2014 to try and find some clues…

2024 H Matsuyama

2023 J Rahm

2022 J Niemann

2021 M Homa

2020 A Scott

2019 JB Holmes

2018 B Watson

2017 D Johnson

2016 B Watson

2015 J Hahn

2014 B Watson

Prior to Matsuyama, Rahm, Niemann, Homa and Scott’s victories the event had seen a victory for JB Holmes in 2019, three wins for Bubba in the previous five years and a win for Dustin Johnson in 2017. DJ was also 4^th here in 2016 and 2^nd here in both 2015 and 2014.

Add in the fact that Luke List, Cam Young, Dechambeau, Finau, Cantlay, Pieters, Kokrak , Zalatoris & Burns have all placed here over the past seven visits and it becomes clear that Riviera has turned in to something of a ‘bombers paradise’ over recent times. In fact until Homa bucked the trend in 2021 with a ranking of 58^th the lowest any of the previous five winners have ranked in driving distance on tour at the end of the season they won the event is Adam Scott in 2020 who ranked 19^th. 2022 winner Niemann though was also one of the longer hitters on the PGA Tour prior to his defection to LIV with a ranking of 38^th in DD that season while Rahm ranked 11^th in DD on tour in 2023. .

That said the most recent winner here Matsuyama ranked 107^th in distance that year and we shouldn’t ignore the fact that Adam Hadwin, tom Hoge, Matt Fitzpatrick, Kevin Na [twice] Scott Brown [twice], Wes Bryan & KJ Choi have all finished in the top 5 over the years, so there is still opportunity for everyone, particularly in a dryer year.

Looking at this list of winners it would appear that Riviera Country Club is a venue where the winners pretty much all have the classic combination we are looking for every week…course form meets current form.

To explain more lets firstly look at the form of each of these winners coming in to the event.

Nine of these past 11 winners noted above had made the cut in their previous start with the two exceptions being JB Holmes and Bubba in 2016 who had both missed the 54 hole cut at Pebble, whilst eighth of them had posted a top 14 finish in at least one of their two previous starts. This trend was rubber stamped again by Rahm in 2023 who was on a ‘heater’ when he arrived here of two wins, a third and a seventh in his four starts on the calendar year to date. Niemann meanwhile in 2022 and Homa the year before had finished sixth at Torrey Pines and seventh at Pebble Beach respectively in their previous starts.

It should be noted though while the 2020 winner Adam Scott held up these statistics he somewhat bucked the trend in that he was making his first start on the PGA Tour of the year in the week that he won. He had however won the Australian PGA in his previous start just before Christmas so he clearly arrived in a confident mood.

To bring us up to date Matsuyama it must be said had been less prolific to start 2024 with a best of 13^th at the Farmers. He had played nicely though the week before in Phoenix to finish 22^nd.

As we can see then solid form coming in is important.

With regards to previous course form again we can see looking over the past 11 winners that this has given us a big clue.

Rahm had two top ten’s with a best of fifth here in his four previous visits while Homa had finished fifth here the year before winning, Scott had finished in the top 11 here in four of his previous five visits, while 2019 Champion JB Holmes had made his previous five cuts here including finish fifth in 2016.

Then we have Bubba who was naturally a previous winner when he lifted the trophy on the last two occasions. In addition to this he had posted a 13^th place finish here in 2012, 2yrs prior to his first win.

DJ meanwhile prior to winning in 2017 had posted three top 5 finishes in the three previous years.

Haas had finished 12^th here the year before winning and Baddeley also had a 13^th place finish here to his name 4yrs prior to his victory and had also made the cut in the subsequent three years.

Finally the most recent winner here Matsuyama had a previous best of fifth here in 2020.

In fact only two winners out of the past 11 did not have a previous top 13 finish in the event with one of these being a player with local California connections, James Hahn.

The second player who did not have a previous big finish here was Niemann, however the Chilean had marked our card the year before with regards to his suitability to the track by sitting in a share of second through 36 holes.

With regards to Hahn and this brings us to a theme of Californian winners as let’s not also forget that 2021 Champion Homa is a local boy through and through with this event basically his ‘home town fifth Major’ while go back a bit further and another Cali guy John Merrick had his big career highlight here.

 So there we have it then, it appears this is not an event for debutants and is certainly one where course and current form coming in is key.

The winning score here has varied considerably over recent years with differing softer/firmer conditions impacting this.

Homa posted -12 on his way to victory while Scott won with an 11- under total and JB won with a total of -14 the previous year. Bubba triumphed with a -12 total in 2018 while In 2017 DJ won with a score of -17, however in 2015 James Hahn won with a score of -6. Last year Rahm triumphed with 17- under, while Niemann who lead the field a merry dance over the four days going wire to wire in 2022, posted a winning total of 19- under. Finally in the most recent edition here Matsuyama’s memorable Sunday 62 saw him post a winning total of 17- under.

WEATHER FORECAST

The early part of the week looks set to be very unsettled with plenty of rain so soft conditions look set to greet the field on Thursday.

Fingers crossed though while there are more showers in the forecast across the four tournament days there is nothing which should halt play.

Temperatures look set to be on the chilly side to start the week but will creep up to the high 60s by Sunday.

Finally the wind looks like it will keep the players honest with 15-20mph gusts forecast.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with four players this week as follows;

XANDER SCHAUFFELE –  18/1 – 2.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 7th

After wrapping up his 2025 with a win at the Baycurrent Classic It’s been a quiet start to 2026 for Xander Schauffele with his season opener at the Farmers seeing his long running cuts made streak finally come to an end.

Following on from this Xander headed to Phoenix and delivered another low key effort to finish 41^st. Last week however at Pebble Beach the two time Major Champion stepped things up to finish 19^th with his off the tee stats on which he ranked third for particularly eye catching.

As noted earlier course experience and past history here is the key to success. A look then at the Californian’s record here shows us that in seven consecutive visits to Riviera he has posted two top tens including a best of fourth last time out in 2024.

I’ll take Xander then to push on from last weeks up tick in form and deliver the goods in his home state on a track that we know he knows well.

PATRICK CANTLAY – 22/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10 - FINISHED 37th

Next up I will turn to Xander’s long time sparring partner Patrick Cantlay.

With Collin Morikawa having returned to the winners enclosure last week it wont be lost on Cantlay that his winless drought which stems back to 2022 is really unacceptable for a player of his calibre.

Cantlay’s 2025 saw him post five top tens including a runner up finish at the Tour Championship however that next win continued to elude him.

On to 2026 then and Patrick has started the year with a 13^th place at the Amex, a MC at Torrey and then a 14^th at Pebble Beach. At Pebble Beach though Cantlay saved his best till last closing with a bogey free 65 on Sunday where he ranked first for the day in Approach Play.

As for Cantlay’s record at Riviera and with two fourth place finished and a third clearly this is somewhere he thrives. In addition of course like Schauffele he hails from California and is hugely comfortable on the West Coast.

I’m happy to take Patrick alongside Xander then as our two from the top end of the market.

PATRICK RODGERS – 80/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10 - FINISHED 34th

Next up this week I make no apologies for returning to Patrick Rodgers.

Patrick has made a strong start to 2026 making all of his cuts and posting a best of third place at the Sony.

A solid body of work to start the year then however a sloppy final nine in Phoenix looked like costing Rodgers his place in the Aon Swing 5 and his start in this event as well as at Pebble Beach. Fortunately for Patrick though late mistakes from both Sahith Theegala and Michael Thorbjornsen saw him creep back in to fifth place in those standings at the last minute.

With Riviera being one of Rodgers favourite stops on tour he will feel this week then that having basically thought he had missed out, he is playing with house money and I am sure will be determined to make the most of the opportunity.

While Patrick struggled at Pebble Beach last week, a venue that he has no great track record it he did actually lead the field around the greens in the event. Equally while not on display last week, 2026 has so far seen eye catching improvement in Parrick’s iron play, the area, which normally lets him down.

We have seen over the years here players with strong Californian ties such as John Merrick and James Hahn, produce shock wins. A win for Patrick wouldn’t be on that level and with a best of 12^th here in 2021 I am happy to chance him again.

TONY FINAU – 100/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10 - FINISHED 28th

I shall wrap things up this week by chancing Tony Finau.

Something of a forgotten man these days Tony managed only one top ten in 2025, a fifth place on this event, all be it at Torrey Pines of course.

2026 though has seen some signs of life from Tony so far as although he has missed three of his five cuts he notched an 11^th at the Farmers and 18^th last week at Pebble Beach.

A player who very much can be counted on to perform well at the same courses time and again Tony’s record at Riviera is very strong with two runner up finishes here over the years.

Looking at Finau’s week at Pebble and incredibly for him he actually led the field on the greens while he was also a solid 13^th place in Approach Play. Furthermore Sunday’s best of the week closing 66 saw him rank seventh in approach.

At triple digit odds then there is an awful lot to like in Tony’s profile as we had back to a venue he has thrived on in the past.