AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am
It was a disappointing week for us in Phoenix as other than Sahith Theegala sitting within striking distance of the places heading in to Sunday none of our team were in the hunt at all.
Theegala though unfortunately failed to produce a Sunday charge comparable to last week.
The event itself was won by Chris Gotterup who bagged his second win in four events so far this year. The American had probably thought that his spirited Sunday 64 was going to leave him a shot shy however after Hideki Matsuyama failed to make the par he needed on the 72nd hole to bag the trophy and it was Gotterup who triumphed in the play off making a birdie after the Japanese star had hit his tee shot in the water.
Matsuyama will be left ruing this as one that got away after he struggled with his driver all Sunday, while for Gotterup the sky seems the limit at the moment.
So after a weeks pitstop in Arizona the tour heads back to California and to the iconic Pebble Beach for the AT & T Pro Am.
Those familiar with the event will be aware that for years the tournament has held a pro-am format played over a three course rotation, with Pebble Beach acting as host course. The event is known for its laid back pro-am atmosphere with the likes of Bill Murray and Huey Lewis wowing the fans year in year out….
In 2024 however this all changed as the event took on Signature Event status with only two courses in play, Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hills.
A field of 80 will tee it up in the no cut event with all players playing a round on each course over the first two days before Pebble takes over for the final 36 holes. Monterey Penninsula, which has been the third course used over the years was dropped from the rotation.
The amateurs who have been a big part of this event over the years are still present over the first couple of days but in a far reduced basis. In addition those amateurs present are now made up purely from the world of sports so as a result it is bye bye amongst others to Bill Murray, Ray Romano, Huey Lewis and Carlton from the Fresh Prince.
The 80 players are made up of last season’s Fedex Cup top 50 who are guaranteed starts in all of this years Signature Events, the ‘next ten’ who earnt their place in the event through their performances in the Fall events and the ‘swing five’ who have played their way in over the past three weeks. Finally the field will be completed by members of the worlds top 30 who are not already eligible and sponsors exemptions.
Still with me?, great! If not all you really need to know is that as a result we have a star studded field present far superior to anything seen here over the years until 2024.
The market is headed up by Scottie Scheffler, the world number one is then followed by the defending champion Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, the in form Si Woo Kim and Tommy Fleetwood.
COURSES
As noted above the event will be played across two courses this year. The courses used will be as follows;
Pebble Beach
Spyglass Hills
Both courses are short at under 7000 yards, so length of the tee is not an issue here at all.
Both play to a par 72 and both feature Poa Annua greens.
Historically Spyglass Hills has played as the toughest course in the event however with the wind being the main defence of the courses if it blows one day but not on another this can have a big effect on the scoring averages from day to day.
If the wind does blow then Pebble Beach in particular suddenly becomes a brute, but if Mother Nature is kind to the players the tracks are there for the taking. That said I would expect this year for pin positions to be tougher at Pebble over the weekend compared to years gone by with celebrities not in the picture.
HISTORY
So let’s start by taking a look at the winners going back to 2015.
2025 R McIlroy
2024 W Clark [Reduced to 54 holes].
2023 J Rose
2022 T Hoge
2021 D Berger
2020 N Taylor
2019 P Mickelson
2018 T Potter Jnr
2017 J Spieth
2016 V Taylor
2015 B Snedeker
In seven of those years this has been an event for the ‘big guns’ with Mickelson, Snedeker, Spieth, Walker, Berger, Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark Milroy last year winning, however in the three of the other years there have been absolute ‘skinners’ getting over the line in the form of Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor and of course Ted Potter Jnr who took down DJ and Day in 2018.
In 2022 meanwhile although not one of the game’s biggest names a well fancied Tom Hoge triumphed with us onboard.
The obvious thing to point out here though is that the field has been relatively weak over recent years whereas from 2024 with the change of status to Signature Event the games biggest names have been in town.
One thing the vast majority of the winners over this period so had in common is a decent amount of course/event experience and some previous high finishes.
This can be seen by the fact that all 9 of the last 11 winners had a previous top 16 finish in the event and in most cases they had made several starts in here.
Two of them, Mickelson, Snedeker were all repeat winners. If we then look at the other winners over the past decade, Potter Jnr had finished 16th here previously, Walker had posted three top tens in the three years prior to his win while Spieth had posted two. Vaughn Taylor had finished 10th the year before, Nick Taylor had finished tenth here in 2017 and Daniel Berger had finished tenth and fifth on his two previous visits.
The 2022 champion Hoge had finished 12th the year before and triumphed on his seventh start here, while 2023 winner Justin Rose, although not a regular over the years here had made several starts with a sixth place here on the resume.
The odd men out here though was 2024 Champion Clark who had made three previous starts in the event with a best of 18th and McIlroy last year who had made just two visits over the past decade finishing 66th and missing the cut. This shift is no doubt again down to the change in the events profile with it gaining its Signature status. In addition we mustn’t also forget that the 2024 event was reduced to 54 holes with Clark who shot a superb 60 on Saturday to vault through the field and take a one shot lead declared the winner.
Ultimately though I am keen to focus on players with past positive course experience here as opposed to those now in attendance purely due to the new Signature status.
Current form coming in is useful but not essential. West Coast specialists Snedeker, Walker and Mickelson had all telegraphed there win with good form over the first few weeks of the new year as had Spieth and Berger. Equally though 2020 champion Nick Taylor had managed nothing better than 32nd in his first four starts of the year missing the cut in two of them while Potter Jnr and Vaughn Taylor had done absolutely nothing over the previous few weeks prior to their victories to warrant consideration! Hoge had finished second at the Amex pro-am event just a fortnight before so despite missing the cut at the Farmers the previous week he was clearly in good nick. Rose had started 2023 in positive fashion with finishes of 26th & 18th over the previous two weeks. Clark had started the year in a fairly low key manner finishing 29th and 39th in his first two starts however McIlroy had finished fourth on his season opener a fortnight prior in Dubai.
The other factor to look at is form on correlating courses on events played on short coastal tracks such as the Sony Open, The RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic being obvious points of reference.
The winning score is very much dictated by the weather. Since 2015 we have seen winning scores ranging from -22 [Snedeker in 2015] to – 11, [Jimmy Walker in 2014].
WEATHER FORECAST
We look set for a chilly week with temperatures in the high 50s. As a whole conditions look set to be dry however Sunday sees things turn with showers looking to be the order of the day.
The wind, which is obviously the key factor here looks set to keep the players honest at around the 15-20mph mark.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with four players this week as follows;
VIKTOR HOVLAND – 25/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8.
I shall start this week with Viktor Hovland.
The Norwegian has started 2026 solidly with a 14th place in Dubai and 10th at the weekend in Phoenix.
Looking at his stats in Phoenix and he ranked fifth in approach play while he also performed strongly on and around the greens. The area that let him down slightly was off the tee however hopefully he will be a bit sharper at Pebble Beach this week in that department, a course he is much more familiar with than TPC Scottsdale.
A two time winner at the Mayakoba as well as bagging his maiden tour title in Puerto Rico Viktor is clearly comfortable by the coast so although his record is not fantastic at Pebble this is not a huge concern for me. In addition his 22nd here last year was actually his best effort in the early part of the season when he was clearly struggling as shown by the fact he missed the cut on his next three starts.
Lets also not forget he was 12th here in the US Open when still an amateur in 2019.
Hovland looks close to being back to his best and I am happy to side with him here this week.
SHANE LOWRY – 40/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next up is Shane Lowry. Backing Lowry has obviously been a frustrating process over recent years, never more so than if you had been on him in Dubai recently.
Ultimately though he has to snap this run eventually and return to the winners enclosure and this looks an obvious opportunity for him.
It goes without saying that when we are by the coast with some breeze in the forecast as there is this week, Shane is a man to have on side.
Second here to Rory McIlroy last year the Irishman’s credentials are obvious and having started 2026 in solid fashion I’m happy to take my chances at good each way odds.
SEPP STRAKA – 50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next cab off the rank is Sepp Straka.
Having made only one stroke play start since the Tour Championship, when third at the Hero, it was not surprising to see Sepp struggle out of the gates at the Amex when he missed the cut on the defence of his title.
Last week however after a scrappy first couple of days Sepp caught the eye over the weekend eventually finishing 18th.
Most noticeably his approach play really warmed up on Saturday and Sunday as he ranked fourth and 13th over those two days respectively.
A winner by the coast at the Cognizant and also a runner up in the Open Sepp also showed us last year he can win at this level.
Seventh here last year the Austrian is clearly also comfortable at Pebble Beach where his iron play can thrive on these small greens.
RYAN FOX – 150/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10
Finally I will roll the dice on Ryan Fox.
A winner in Mytle Beach last year on the PGA Tour Fox has long been known as a strong exponent of coastal golf something that is backed up by his win at the Dunhill Links in 2022.
Having brushed off the cobwebs in Dubai Ryan made his seasonal PGA Tour debut in Phoenix last week and encouragingly gained strokes all across the bag on his way to 24th place.
With two PGA Tour wins and three DP World Tour wins over the past four years Fox is clearly a proven winner and the natural next step for him is to now produce the goods in a Signature Event.
At big each way odds then he makes plenty of appeal to do that at a course which should play to his strengths.