WM Phoenix Open
WM Phoenix Open
Feb 02, 2026Waste Management Phoenix Open
It was a solid week for us at Torrey Pines as our 75/1 pick Sahith Theegala bagged a good share of the place money for us finishing in a tie for seventh. It is the second week running Theegala has finished strongly to bag a top ten and he looks a man to keep an eye on as we head forward.
The event, which started as the ‘Brooks Koepka show’ as the five time Major Champion made his return to the PGA Tour, very much ended as the Justin Rose show as the Englishman produced a dominant performance to post a wire to wire victory.
Rose opened with a 10- under round on the North Course and he never looked back from there on in. It was a superb performance from the 45yr old.
I will admit that coming in to the year I thought that after his heroics last year, in a non Ryder Cup year this time around, Justin might have a quiet 2026. It seems I could not have been more wrong!
So after a couple of weeks in California the PGA tour heads back in to the desert to TPC Scottsdale in Arizona located North East of downtown Phoenix. This will be the 38th consecutive year the event has been played at this venue.
The event has become known for its raucous crowds and record attendances. The four-day attendance of the tournament is usually around a half million; the best-attended event in golf. In 2016, it set a PGA Tour single day attendance record with 201,003 fans attending on the Saturday, and set a tournament week attendance record of 618,365 people.
There’s no doubt that a certain type of temperament is normally required to handle the atmosphere here, with the noise reaching a crescendo at the par 3 16th hole, nicknamed the Coliseum. This hole is basically an amphitheatre, which is usually surrounded by 20,000 + fans who will boo you in unison if you hit a bad tee shot.
In addition the fact that the event traditionally falls on Super Bowl weekend adds to the overall party atmosphere.
While the event does not carry ‘signature event’ status the field is still strong with Scottie Scheffler leading the way and of course heading up the market. The world’s number one is then followed in the market by Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young and Si Woo Kim.
COURSE
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 playing to just over 7250 yards. The course features 3 par 5s and 4 par 3s. Undoubtedly the back 9 is the more scoreable 9 on the course with the real birdie opportunities coming on a 5 hole stretch from 13 through to 17, which features 2 par 5s and the driveable par 4 17th.
The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.
The original course designers were Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish. The course then underwent a renovation in 2014 under the guidance again of Tom Weiskopf.
TPC Scottsdale is set in the Arizona desert and as such we should be looking this week at players with strong form in in other Desert events such as the Reno Tahoe Open, The Desert Classic and the Shriners Hospital for Children Open, as well as on the European Tour in Dubai.
In addition it is worth noting the event is played at altitude of approximately 1250ft above sea level.
As well as the Reno Tahoe Open and the Shriners other events played on the PGA Tour at altitude over recent years include the WGC Mexico and the CJ Cup in Korea.
HISTORY
So let us firstly look at the winners going back to 2014 who are as follows;
2025 T Detry
2024 N Taylor
2023 S Scheffler
2022 S Scheffler
2021 B Koepka
2020 W Simpson
2019 R Fowler
2018 G Woodland
2017 H Matsuyama
2016 H Matsuyama
2015 B Koepka
2014 K Stadler
Looking at these winners and the first thing that grabs me is that as a rule previous form in desert events, whether here or elsewhere, is the key to solving the puzzle here.
Double defending champion Scottie Scheffler had finished seventh here in 2021 before defending last year while 2021 champion Brooks Koepka was a previous winner here. The 2020 winner Webb Simpson had posted 4 previous top tens here including a second place finish, the 2019 winner Fowler had been the perennial bridesmaid here prior to his victory with finishes of 11 4 2 in the previous three years while Woodland the 2018 champion had previously won the Reno Tahoe event and finished 5th here. Finally the winner for the previous two years Matsuyama had come 2nd here in 2015 and 4th in 2014.
If we then dig deeper Koepka had finished 3rd in the Dubai Desert Classic the year before winning here the first time, while Stadler, who was born in Nevada, was something of a desert specialist, having previously finished 11th, 5th and 2nd in Reno as well as 11th here the year before winning.
Go back even further and Mickelson was a two time winner here prior to his win in 2013, as well as having previously tasted success in the Desert Classic. In addition of course Phil has strong ties with the area having attended college in Arizona.
2012 winner Kyle Stanley had finished 10th at the Shriners the year before and in addition came here in strong form having memorably lost the previous week’s tournament at Torrey Pines with a meltdown on the 18th hole.
Going back even further 2011 winner Mark Wilson had posted a 9th place and 11th place finish in this event over the previous three years as well as a top 10 in Reno and at the Shriners while finally 2010 winner Hunter Mahan had posted a previous top 10 finish here.
2024 champion Nick Taylor had been runner up here the year before. As for last years champion Detry he was in only his second PGA Tour season so he had no form in the Desert stateside to speak of however on the DP World Tour he had top tens to his name in Abu Dhabi and Qatar.
To sum up every one of the past fifteen winners had posted previous top 10 finishes in Desert events, whilst nine of them had posted one either in this event or in Reno.
Current form coming in to the event can be beneficial as we saw with Simpson in 2020 who triumphed on the back of a third place finish at the Sony, while Scheffler of course had been racking up the big finishes prior to defending last year, however it is not a requisite.
2019 champion Rickie Fowler had only made one start in the calendar year a ‘loosener’ of a 66th place at Torrey Pines the week before, similarly Hideki Matsuyama had missed the cut on his only previous calendar year start, also at the Farmers, the year he was first victorious, conversely though 2018 winner Gary Woodland had finished 12th and seventh in his previous two starts. 2021 winner Koepka had missed the cut in his first two outings of the calendar year and finally Scheffler before his first win in 2022 had been solid but unspectacular in finishing 25th and 20th in his first two outings of the year.
Taylor had notched a top ten in his season opening event in Hawaii in 2024 prior to his win here while similarly Detry has notched a fifth place at the Sentry.
All in all though, bearing in mind the completely different challenges they set, to me the pedigree in the desert is more important than form at Torrey Pines.
Whilst you still need to go low there was a feel that the course has toughened up a bit since the redesign in 2014 however Taylor posted 21- under in 2024 before triumphing over Charley Hoffman in a play off while last year all be it blitzing the field by seven shots Detry matched Phil Mickelson’s 2013 winning number of 24- under.
It’s also worth noting that the type of player peppering the leaderboard since the redesign seems to have shifted slightly with solid tee to green players Berger, Hoffman, Reavie, Steele, Kuchar, Simpson, Spaun, Weekley, Thomas and English all producing the goods here over the years. In addition of course two time champion Scheffler is very much known for his tee to green strengths.
If we then look the 2021 final leaderboard there is even more evidence of this as not only did strong ball striker Matthew NeSmith perform well to finish seventh but finishing one shot ahead of him was 50+ Steve Stricker.
Undoubtedly bombing it off the tee is still an advantage but keeping it in play and finding the greens seems to have become more relevant.
Until his withdrawal with injury in 2018 Hideki had been the dominant player in the event over a four year stretch with two wins, a second place and a fourth place to his name.
Five of the past 12 winners here, Detry, Scheffler on the first occasion, Koepka in 2015], Stadler and Stanley were all notching their first PGA Tour victories.
Over the last 9yrs the winning score has ranged from -14 to -24 with Detry posting that total last year.
WEATHER FORECAST
We look set for a lovely week of sunshine in the Arizona desert with temperatures in the high 70s.
The wind might be a slight issue on the opening day with 10-mph gusts but from there on in conditions look calm.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows;
SAHITH THEEGALA 40/1 – 2.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 18th
I will start this week by sticking with Sahith Theegala who served us well at the Farmers last week.
After no top tens at all in 2025 Sahith has hit the ground running in 2026 with two top tens over the past fortnight in three starts to date this year.
Theegala memorably came close to winning here on debut in 2022 before an unlucky bounce found a watery grave down the stretch meaning he ultimately finished third. He then showed that performance was no fluke by notching a fifth place finish here two years later.
With confidence now surely high after a closing 66 at Torrey Pines I can see him going close here again this year.
MATT McCARTY – 66/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Matt McCarty marked our card as a potential Desert specialist when winning for us in Utah in 2024 and he backed that up when returning to that venue as defending champion twelve months later when finishing third.
After his win in Utah perhaps not surprisingly Matt struggled to readjust early in 2025 posting nothing better than 48th in his first seven starts.
The second half of 2025 saw Matt’s form pick up though and he ended the year a solid 81st in the Fedex standings.
On to this year then and McCarty came up trumps in the desert again just two weeks ago finishing runner up in the Amex.
A native of Scottsdale Matt struggled here last year in front of his home fans missing the cut. As noted though he was struggling for form at the time.
This year it is a very different story backing up his second at the Amex with an 18th at the Farmers. I’ll take him then to flourish in the Desert again this week.
HAOTONG LI – 75/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Having returned to one of our team from last week in Theegala I will chance another again in Haotong Li.
The Chinese star has started life really strongly on the PGA Tour posting finishes of eighth and 11th over the past two weeks on the PGA Tour.
The 11th place at Torrey Pines meant Haotong didn’t quite bag a return for us unfortunately however he fully justified our confidence with an excellent performance that saw him rank eighth in approach play.
A winner on the DP World Tour at both the Dubai Desert Classic and last year in Qatar Li clearly loves Desert golf, something he showed again with his eighth at the Amex.
A superb ball striker from tee to green he looks to me exactly the type of player who can thrive at TPC Scottsdale and I am happy to stick with him this week.
SH KIM – 125/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 54th
Next cab off the rank is SH Kim.
SH has made a quietly impressive start to his return to the PGA Tour making all three cuts with two top 20 finishes.
Arriving in strong form then what really catches my eye here though is his correlating form.
Firstly Kim initially came to our attention when fourth in the Desert at the Shriners on his first full season on tour at the back end of 2022.
Furthermore he then produced a fourth place finish at the Byron Nelson in 2024, which as the other Tom Weiskopf design used on tour links really well here, something shown by KH Lee who won their having performed really strongly in this event.
Kim has made one previous start here when he played nicely to finish 28th, a finish that was his best in 2024 in his first 11 starts on tour that year.
Returning in far better form this year then and with some eye catching correlating form I’ll take him to perform strongly here this week
ADAM SCHENK – 350/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED MC
Finally at hugely generous each way odds I’ll roll the dice on Adam Schenk.
Schenk arrives here on the back of an 11th place at Torrey Pines where he ranked fifth in approach play. With Schenk being very much a confidence player who will often produce big finishes in bunches then that is enough on its own to catch our eye.
In addition though Schenk boasts a fifth and 13th the last two years at the aforementioned CJ Cup held at a Weiskopf design while he also has a third place finish at the Shriners and a fourth place finish at the Barracuda to give us the Desert form we are looking for.
Adam’s record in this event isn’t great however he has played very solidly here the last three years notching finishes of 25 17 23 notching rounds of 66 and 65 along the way and only shooting over par once. Clearly then he is more than comfortable here.
Returning now a PGA Tour winner I am more than happy to chance him at very juicy odds.