Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Nov 10, 2025The Butterfield Bermuda Championship
It was a solid week for us in Mexico as we bagged a full place with our 80/1 shot Carson Young and a half share of a place with our 60/1 pick Matti Schmid.
That said there was certainly an element of ‘what might have been’ as Young stood in the middle of the 13th fairway with a share of the lead. From then on though the pressure unfortunately told on the Clemson grad as he made two bogeys coming home while failing to birdie either of the two par 5s coming in. Meanwhile Schmid made a really poor bogey six at the last to cost us the full place.
The event in the end was won by Ben Griffin who showed his class at the top of the leaderboard shooting 63 to cruise home. Quite a break out year for Griffin who if you include his Zurich Pairs win has three trophies now this year. It will be fascinating to see how he backs it up in 2026.
So we move on and it’s time for the penultimate event of the PGA Tour Fall season, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
The event, which first debuted on Tour in 2019 as an opposite field event to the WGC HSBC Champions event will for the fifth year running take centre stage as the only PGA Tour event this week.
As has been the case since its inception the host course will be the Port Royal GC in Southampton.
The field, which it must be said is weak, is made up predominantly of players who are still battling for a spot on the ‘next ten’ 50-60, or the top 100 or 150.
The market is headed up by Rico Hoey, Nico Echavarria and Thorbjorn Olesen.
COURSE
Port Royal GC is a par 71 measuring just over 6800 yards.
The greens are Tiff Eagle Bermuda.
The course is a Robert Trent Jones design.
The course features a mix of tree lined holes early on before coastal holes exposed to the Atlantic Ocean take over later on in the front nine and dominate the rest of the way home.
From that point of view the wind can clearly be a factor and we should be looking towards other shorter coastal courses with obvious similarities for reference such as El Cameleon, home of the Mayakoba where last years winner Brendan Todd was also victorious a week later, Harbour Town at Hilton Head, Sea Island home of the RSM and Waialae CC home of the Sony Open.
HISTORY
With the event only having been on the calendar for six years we are still building a picture of what it takes to succeed here. Here though is the final top ten from those six leaderboards.
2024
1st R Campos
2nd A Novak
T3 M Hubbard, A Dumont De Chassart.
T5 J Lower, V Whaley, S Ryder.
8 B Griffin.
T9 P Rodgers, G Sigg, D Lipsky
2023
1st C Villegas
2nd A Noren
3rd M Schmid
4 C Yuan
T5 A Scott & R Moore.
7th S Cink
T8th, R Palmer, T Alexander, K Roy, V Whaley, T Pendrith.
2022
1st S Power
2nd T Detry
T3rd P Rodgers, B Griffin & K Yu
T6th A Baddeley, D McCarthy
T8th M McGreevey, J Lower
10th H Endycott
2021
1st L Herbert -15
T2nd D Lee & P Reed -14
4th P Rodgers -13
T5th T Pendrith & S Stallings -12
T7th P Malnati, JJ Spaun, C Thompson, D Riley & V Whaley -11
2020
1st – B Gay -15
2nd – W Clark -15
3rd – O Schneiderjans -13
T4th – D MCarthy, S Cink, M Jones, D Redman -12
T8th – D Hearn, K Hickok, R Armour
2019
1st – B Todd -24
2nd - H Higgs -20
T3rd - H Lebioda, A Wise, B Gay, & S Scheffler -18
7th – F Gomez -17
T8th – D Hearn, W Roach & R Armour -15
As we can see from these results while the event has only been running for five years a clear pattern has emerged with shorter straight hitting players like Gay, Todd, Hearn, Armour, Redman, Hickok, R Moore most recently Campos coming to the fore.
In 2022 this pattern was broken to a certain extent as PGA Tour rookie Lucas Herbert who is longer than average off the tee prevailing.
2023 champion Seamus Power is shorter in distance than average off the tee, while other shorter hitters like B Griffin, A Baddeley and K Yu also performed strongly that year. Similarly last years champion Villegas again fitted the profile of someone who when in the groove plots his way round the course these days.
One trend that that has developed over the six years is that strong putters seem to go really well here. The first two winners Brendan Todd & Brian Gay have always been known for their work on the greens while 2022 winner Lucas Herbert actually topping the 21/22 PGA Tour SGP rankings. Meanwhile 2023 winner Power’s putter is best club in his bag.
2023 winner Villegas slightly bucked that trend as he’s not known particularly for his strength on the greens and he ranked 11th in that department on the week. Runner up Noren though is renowned for his putting and was top 20 on the PGA Tour with the flat stick last year.
Meanwhile bringing things up to date it has to be said that Campos, whose win last year came completely out of the blue was well down the seasons putting stats when he arrived here, as he was to be fair in all departments.
The first two winners had both been known as players who thrived more on their favoured East Coast surfaces and while as a PGA tour rookie Herbert didn’t have this pedigree his second best result of the season came the following March at Bay Hill. Meanwhile Villegas as a former winner both at PGA National and Sedgefield CC is an ‘out and out’ East Coast specialist. Campos meanwhile who of course hails from Puerto Rico had produced his finest tour efforts prior to this win on comparable tests in his home country and at the Corales.
From an incoming form point of view neither of the first two winners gave us any immediate clues as both Gay and Todd had been in dreadful form to put it frankly coming in. Todd had at least given a small hint of what was to come by finishing 28th in Houston the week before after missing his first four cuts of the season however Gay had posted nothing better than 27th all calendar year amongst a swathe of missed cuts.
Herbert had missed his first two cuts on the PGA Tour however he had proven his winning pedigree for the second time on the DP World Tour only three months or so previously when triumphing in Ireland.
Power meanwhile had managed nothing better than 30th in his first three starts of 22/23 finishing a lowly 49th in the limited field event the week before.
Villegas meanwhile had telegraphed the win finishing runner up in Mexico the week before.
Campos had notched a 13th in the Procore to start the Fall but he had then missed his previous four cuts prior to the win here.
In relation to previous form here Todd of course triumphed in the first edition of the event, however Gay had finished third here the previous year so we at least knew he was suited to the track.
2021 winner Herbert was making his debut here so nothing to go on there, however Power had played solidly in all three previous editions with a best of 12th the year before. Villegas meanwhile had done nothing of note here but he had made the cut on all of his previous three visits.
Campos meanwhile had finished 18th and missed the cut in his two previous visits here prior to the win.
Sketchy stuff with regards to past form here or current form then however the clearest guide for this event comes from form at correlating courses. The obvious venues to focus are the likes of Hilton Head the home of the RBC Heritage, Sea Island the home of the RSM, Waialae CC the home of the Sony Open, The Corales Puntacana event and perhaps most significantly El Cameleon the former home of the Mayakoba event.
I say most significantly for the last event as the first winners here to date, Todd and Gay have also triumphed at the Mayakoba so the obvious links are there for all to see.
With Herbert being in his first full season Stateside there was no bank of correlating course form to compare, however with wins in Dubai and Ireland, as well as of course his Aussie background, his pedigree on links type tracks and in the wind was not in doubt and he put this to great use in 2022 when the wind blew here strongly.
Power meanwhile had a fifth at the Corales in 2018, a sixth at Hilton Head in 2019, fourth and third place finishes at the RSM and Sony Open in 21/22 as well as a 12th at the Mayakoba the same campaign so a huge amount of pointers there. Finally as well as triumphing by the coast at PGA National and winning on the shorter par 70 Sedgefield CC, Villegas has posted plenty of top tens at venues like Hilton Head and Sea Island over the years.
Finally as noted earlier Campos had top five finishes in Puerto Rico and the Corales before winning here.
WEATHER FORECAST
Temperatures look set to sit around the high 70s for the week so plenty warm enough with conditions mainly dry, however wind looks set to play its part.
With regards to wind at the time of writing we look set to see gusts of 30mph+ across the four days.
As I always say though…this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with four players this week as follows;
MATT KUCHAR – 30/1 – 3pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
It is not often I am overly surprised by a price but I will confess to being somewhat shocked by the odds being offered for Matt Kuchar. In my eyes he should be pretty much favourite.
Lets look at the case for him. Firstly after an average year as a whole, since a fifth place at the John Deere in July Kuch has gone on to post three further top 20s in his last three starts closing out with a 65 in Mexico.
Then if we look at correlating course form we see that he has wins at Mayakoba and Hilton Head which we know sit perfectly here. Basically Matt is an excellent exponent of sort coastal courses in windy conditions.
I can only assume that at 47yrs old the layers feel he is too long in the tooth compared to the young guns and of course I acknowledge he is not the force he was, however he is in great nick at the moment and if he is going to have one last trip to the winners enclosure it is going to be on a sub 7000yd coastal track exactly like this.
The one down side is that this week represents Matt’s debut here but I expect him to lap up the conditions and thrive on a layout that should be perfect for him.
PATRICK RODGERS - 25/1 – 2pts e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8
I will take the bait and take my chances on Patrick Rodgers this week.
Since a third place in the Genesis Invitational in February 2025 has been by and large a disappointing year for Patrick with the period from May through to August a particular struggle for him as he went through a change of coach along side swing changes.
After a solid outing in Utah though Rodgers came to life in Mexico last week to finish sixth.
On to the last two weeks of the year and for someone known as a bigger hitter Patrick actually has a really strong record on shorter tracks. Next week we head to the RSM where he memorably closed out with 61 62 before just missing out in a play off while this weeks venue has seen him post three straight top tens.
Many column inches of course have been written about Patrick’s failure to get over the line to date on the PGA Tour however I am convinced his time will come and this week represents an excellent opportunity.
BEN MARTIN – 200/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next in an event that has seen its fair share of shock winners in its short history I’ll take a flyer on Ben Martin.
Martin arrives here in a fairly customary situation, which sees him battling for any kind of playing privileges in 2026. Basically at 174th in the Fedex standings it’s pretty much win or bust for him.
A tall order then however if Martin is to ever add to his lone PGA Tour title it is likely that it will come on a short hitting test like he faces here.
From a correlating course point of view Ben has a really strong record at the Corales notching three top tens in his last four visits including a ninth earlier this year. He also has a third place finish in Puerto Rico to his name.
His record in this event at first glance isn’t as strong however he has made the cut on all three visits posting rounds of 65 and 66 on his way to 27th here in 2023 while he opened with a 64 here in 2022.
Ben arrives here on the back of four straight missed cuts however his worst score in his past eight rounds is 73 so its not like he has been struggling hugely, just a case of needing a few more putts to drop.
In addition of course as we saw with Campos last year, form coming in isn’t always the biggest of clues here.
On a track that should really suit him then I’ll take Martin to produce a big week when he really needs it.
HAYDEN BUCKLEY – 250/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 12
Finally I will roll the dice once more at big odds on Hayden Buckley.
Buckley has produced some of his best stuff on tour at shorter layouts, noticeably just missing out on the trophy at the Sony Open in 2023 while he also finished fifth at Hilton head that same year.
2025 has been a really poor year for Hayden and he currently sits way outside the top 100 at 174th in the Fedex rankings. Basically he needs a win over the next two weeks otherwise he’ll be returning to the Korn Ferry.
Over recent weeks however here have been more positive signs as he has made his last three cuts posting 12 consecutive rounds of par or better. Furthermore looking at his stats in Mexico his iron play was strong ranking 19th in good old fashioned GIR.
Buckley is yet to produce anything of note here, however this is a track that should really suit him and I am happy to roll the dice at big odds with extra places on offer.