The Procore Championship

The Procore Championship

It’s not even three weeks since the 2025 race to crown a Fedex Cup champion wrapped up at East Lake with Tommy Fleetwood not only bagging his first PGA Tour trophy but also taking advantage of this years straight shoot out to bag the Fedex Cup.

From our point of view while the play off events didn’t bring us any joy the season turned out to be a really good one as a steady stream of winners throughout the campaign meant we closed out 24-25 with a profit of just over 275pts. Fantastic stuff and if we can repeat that this time around I will be delighted!

While unlike last season we didn’t have one standout 200/1 we were onboard for wins for Matt McCarty and Austin Eckroat last Fall, for Karl Villips and Garrick Higgo at juicy odds in opposite field events as well as bagging winners with Sepp Straka and Kurt Kitayama.

Furthermore while we didn’t land one an event winner in any of the Majors the biggest events were really kind to us as well as we bagged big priced each way returns with Harris English in both the PGA and the Open while the icing on the cake was landing Justin Rose at 80/1 to lead on day one in Augusta.

As we know this is a long term game and having banked 435pts profit 20/21 and with four of the four od the five seasons either side of that also profitable we are very healthily placed since the site started at over 850+ points ahead!

So with the dust barely settled it is all systems go once more as we head west to Napa for the newly named Procore Championship for the first event of the Fall series.

Unfortunately this year the long standing Shriners event at TPC Summerlin is no longer on the schedule, the regular trips to the Sanderson Farms, The RSM Classic, Bermuda, Mexico and Japan to look forward to.

As was instigated a couple of years ago through this series of events there will be no Fedex Cup points up for grabs with regards to the 2026 season, which will begin fully in Hawaii in January, however the players who finished outside the top 50 will continue to earn points through the Fall with the points accrued offering both opportunity to get in to the first two Signature Events of 2024 at Pebble Beach and Riviera. In addition those who finished outside the top 70 in the Fedex rankings will be playing for a final position on the points list to secure a ranking inside the top 100 and status for 2026. In addition a win in any of the Fall events will be rewarded with the usual perks of 2yrs status and a trip to Augusta and Kapalua.

With the change that sees it being the top 100 only now as opposed to top 125 who are guaranteed to keep their full cards there really is everything to play for.

Those who finished in the top 50 are able to tee it up in any Fall events if they wish but they won’t earn any Fedex Cup points. This week then the event benefits from the upcoming Ryder Cup as ten of the US Team look to get ‘match sharp’ by teeing it up here. This includes world number one Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay. The two who aren’t here are Bryson Dechambeau who of course as a LIV member is ineligible to play and Xander Schauffele who has chosen not to tee it up.

The Procore Championship was first staged as The Fry’s Electronics Open in 2007. The following year the event was renamed the Fry’s.com Open.

In 2010 the event then moved from its initial home in Arizona to the CordeValle Club in San Martin, California, before finally arriving at its current home, The Silverado Country Club in Napa, for the 2014-15 season.

The event was then renamed The Safeway Open for the 2016-17 season and remained so for five editions before Fortinet took over the reigns.  This summer though Fortinet ended their deal early with software provider Procore stepping in.

The market is naturally dominated by Scheffler and he is then followed by Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay.

COURSE

Silverado North Course is a par 72 measuring just over 7150yds.

The greens are Bent Grass with Poa Annua.

The course was originally opened in 1955 before being redesigned by Robert Trent Jones Jnr in 1966.

In 2010 the resort was then purchased by a consortium including Johnny Miller.

At this point Miller, who’s long term goal is to attract a major championship to the venue oversaw a renovation/redesign of the course.

Silverado is a classical, tree lined set up with narrow fairways, which are tough to find. The rough historically however has not been overly penal and this making the course fairly ‘gettable’.

This year the players returning to Silverado will find things looking a bit different. While there have been no major changes with regards to redesigns of holes, lengthening etc, the course with a view to making it more ‘fan friendly’ has been re routed.

Holes 1-7 will play the same as will 18 however the remaining holes have been shuffled around with the signature par three 11^th now the 17^th. The final five holes will now run as Par 4 5 4 3 5.

HISTORY

So let’s firstly take a look at the winners of the event since it moved to Silverado in 2014.

2024 Patton Kizzire

2023 Sahith Theegala

2022 Max Homa

2021 Max Homa

2020 Stewart Cink

2019 Cameron Champ

2018 Kevin Tway

2017 Brendan Steele

2016 Brendan Steele

2015 Emiliano Grillo

2014 Sang Moon Bae

The first thing we should bear in mind when looking at this list is that with the exception of 2019 when the Greenbrier held the honour this event has been the curtain raiser for the PGA Tours new campaign.

The 2020 event as we know was won by the rejuvenated Stewart Cink however when looking at that event we need to remember that due to the impact of Covid 19 there were no fresh faced rookies arriving in Napa that September buoyed from their exploits in the Korn Ferry finals.

Away from that year though we have seen a bunch of rookies making a big impact here over the years with the most notable being Emilliano Grillo who won here in 2015 on the back of winning the Korn Ferry Tour Championship.

Meanwhile in 2022 we saw Taylor Montgomery and Ben An jump straight of the Korn Ferry to post a top five finish here.

From 2023 with the Korn Ferry season not yet concluded and rookies not eligible  until the following year we saw a very different dynamic of seasoned PGA players battling it out as they tried to secure their cards. That said what we saw in 2023 as indeed we did in other Fall events was a win for a player in Theegala who having wrapped up his top 50 place had no real pressure on him at all and instead was simply here at a track we knew really suited him on a mission to bag his first tour title.

Last year though it was a very different story as Patton Kizzire arrived here having finished the regular season outside of the top 125 and with the pressure really on. He delivered in spades though to bag his first win in over six years to lock up his card.

Taking a closer look now at the winners here and we see that three of the nine winners Steele [twice] and Grillo are renowned for their ball striking prowess from tee to green.

In addition, while this is not necessarily the case for the 2018 winner Kevin Tway as a rule, he did have a great week here off the tee that week gaining more than eight strokes on the field in SGTTG and finishing the week ranked third in that category, whilst 2019 winner Cameron Champ lead the field from tee to green gaining over 11 strokes on the field in that department.

If we then look at 2020 winner Stewart Cink he also did most of his damage from tee to green while Max Homa has ranked first and second in this department over the past two years.

In 2023 while Theegala was solid with his iron play ranking 18^th, he did buck the trend slightly doing most of his damage on the greens as he ranked second with the flatstick.

Meanwhile Kizzire had an excellent season as a whole with his iron play in 2024 ranking 18^th on the year in approach while he ranked 15^th for that department here on his way to victory. He also it should be noted ranked first in putting for the week, a lethal combination!

Looking at the eleven winners at Silverado though allowing for the two successes for Homa and Steele and the wins for Champ and Theegala we have had six Californian triumphs here.

Whilst as noted above this has been a solid hunting ground for Korn Ferry graduates the winners themselves with the exception of Grillo have tended to triumph here on the back of a fairly humdrum end to their previous campaigns.

Aside from a fifth in the handicap adjusted Tour Championship Homa triumphed in 2022 having not had a top 15 finish since a fifth at the Memorial, while the previous year he had posted nothing better than 25^th since a sixth place at the Memorial. 2020 champion Cink had only posted one top 20 finish in the whole of 2020 prior to his win here while 2019 winner Cameron Champ had struggled for the vast majority of the season since his win almost 12 months prior at the Sanderson Farms.

Back to back champion Brendan Steele ended his previous campaign with four missed cuts in seven starts and nothing better than 24^th place since June when winning for the second time and had finished the previous campaign with a whimper posting nothing better than 17^th place in six starts since early July the year he first tasted victory in the event.

2015 winner Sang Moon Bae had also ended his previous season with some in and out form, which had included a 14^th place at the Wyndham and three missed cuts in his last four starts, however 2018 champion Kevin Tway had made his final eight cuts on tour to at least finish his 17/18 campaign solidly.

Theegala had played solidly to finish 13^th and 15^th in the first two play off events, however prior to that he had no notched a top 20 since a fifth at the RBC Heritage way back in April.

Finally to bring us up to date Kizzire had posted a top ten at the Barracuda three starts previously however prior to that he had not had a top ten since another opposite field event in Myrtle Beach in May.

All in all then the message seems fairly clear, don’t be too concerned if your fancy here isn’t in great form coming in having ended their previous campaign slowly as it appears to be very much a case of ‘reset-new start’ here.

With current form not being a huge issue the next thing to look at is course form. Bae naturally was getting his first look at the track competitively when he won here as was Grillo the following year. Steele though having grown up in California was 21^st and 17^th here the two years prior to his two victories while Tway was making his second start here having finished 62^nd the previous year.

Champ had finished 25^th in his first start in the event the previous year and in addition as a native of nearby Sacramento he also had decent knowledge of the area, however Cink had missed the cut on his only previous start here.

Homa prior to his first win was 39^th here way back in 2014 but had posted nothing better than 60^th in three visits since. In 2022 though he of course was defending. Again though it would seem previous course form is not imperative. Finally Theegala in addition to being a Californian had very much marked our card here finishing sixth in 2022.

One other line naturally worth looking at though is course form elsewhere in California and particularly at Riviera, a course which several players likened to Silverado when they first got a look at this venue.

Sang Moon Bae had performed well at Riviera prior to winning here including having held the halfway lead and Brendan Steele had made his five previous cuts at Riviera including posting finishes of 14^th and 10^th.

2018 winner Tway has ‘no previous’ at Riviera however the two men he beat in the play-off that year Moore and Snedeker have strong records there and of course Sneds is a California specialist full stop.

Two time champion Homa had been victorious at Riviera earlier in 2021 prior to his first win to well and truly rubber stamp the link, while Theegala also leapt off the page after finishing sixth at Riviera earlier in 2023.

Finally while Kizzire had done nothing here of late nor ever at Riviera he did have a runner up finish in this event to his name in 2017 so the clues were there.

Looking at the winning score we have seen -15 get the job done on three occasions and -18 was the number for Steele in 2016 while -14 was enough to make the play off in 2018 which Tway emerged victorious from.

In 2019 Cameron Champ took victory with a total of -17, Cink triumphed with a total of -21 in 2020. -19 was good enough for Homa to get the job done in 2021 while his total in 2022 was 16- under. In 2023 Theegala triumphed on 21- under, while last year the winning number for Kizzire was -20.

WEATHER FORECAST

Looking at the forecast this is certainly a great week to be in Napa with temperatures in the high 80s and no sign of any rain.

The only possible issue could be some fog with cloud cover early in the day.

Wind could be an issue for the players though as all four days show the possibility as I write for gusts of 20mph and possibly above, particularly Saturday.

As I always say though…this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

MAVERICK MCNEALY –25/1 – 2.5pts e/w - 1/5 odds 1^st 8

I put Maverick McNealy up for this event last year and I am happy to go in again this year.

My thought was that a bit like Theegala who we were on board the previous year Mav would morph a really solid 2024 in to landing his first tour title in his home state and on a track he had performed well on before.

Unfortunately it wasn’t to be and he delivered a very disappointing performance to miss the cut. Even more unfortunately for us I then deserted Maverick as the Fall series progressed and he duly went on to bag that first title at the RSM.

Roll on twelve months and Mcnealy return to Silverado having delivered an incredibly strong 2025, which saw him bag seven top tens including one runner up finish, break in to the worlds top ten and finish 23^rd in the Fedex standings. Basically he did everything but win, and frustratingly for him he just missed out on a spot in the US Ryder Cup Team.

With ten of the US Ryder Cup Team on display this week then what better way for Maverick to give Captain Bradley a timely reminder that perhaps he got it wrong in leaving him out than by bagging his second tour title here.

A native of California of course McNealy has enjoyed his time in his home state over the years particularly at Pebble Beach where he has family ties, in addition he was runner up in Cali again earlier this year at Torrey Pines in the relocated Genesis event.

More importantly for this week he was runner up here to Max Homa in 2021 having lead through 36 holes and was right in the hunt until a late slip at 17 on Sunday. Furthermore despite some patchy results on other visits here McNealy has talked about how he feels hugely comfortable in the area and on the course.

A look at McNealy’s stats for 2025 show us that he did everything well ranking 21^st in putting and 48^th in approach play so he certainly has the tools to succeed here.

I’ll take the Stanford star to step up here then back on Californian soil and bag his second tour title in comfortable surroundings.

MAX HOMA -  40/1 –1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Sticking with the California theme and next up I will chance Max Homa

Siding with Homa in his home state requires no real explanation. The 34 year old has six PGA Tour wins and four of them have come in California. Indeed two of them in 2021 and 2022 came in this event.

The difference this year though of course is that Max has been in somewhat of a slump for the past 12 months with 2025 seeing him post just one top ten and finish 111^th in the Fedex Cup standings. From that point of view despite having been one of the standout performers for the US in team events over recent years he was never really on Keegan Bradley’s radar, something that I am sure will have stung him coming in to this week and as he has worked on his game recently.

A struggle undoubtedly for Homa this year then however he has talked repeatedly about how much he enjoys the challenge and the grind of trying to rediscover his best stuff. Interestingly then while it is admittedly small shoots of recovery his one top ten this year, a fifth at the John Deere, came just four starts ago and he then followed this with two solid mid division finishes. Meanwhile although he missed the cut on his last appearance at the Wyndham he actually ranked third on approach play on day one when posting a 66.

I noted earlier that recent winners here have often triumphed on the back of underwhelming ends to their previous regular season and Homa himself is a perfect example of this. Aside from a fifth in the handicap adjusted Tour Championship he triumphed in 2022 having not had a top 15 finish since a fifth at the Memorial, while the previous year he had posted nothing better than 25^th since a sixth place at the Memorial.

We are clearly chancing here that Homa has continued to work hard since the Wyndham and that the reset from the break will have done him some good, however his form is very much reflected in his odds as an inform Homa here would be arguably second favourite behind Scheffler. I’ll take my chances then and jump on board then at the odds offered.

GARY WOODLAND – 70/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up for me is Gary Woodland.

Woodland quietly had a solid 2025 regular season campaign finishing 72^nd in the Fedex standings. Despite this though he just missed out on the Fedex Cup play offs and while his card should be secure for 2026 he still needs to keep half an eye on the top 100.

Looking at Gary’s results for the year and the highlight was a runner up finish in Houston, with his next best effort also coming in Texas when 11^th at the Charles Schwab.

More recently though Gary has played really solidly making his last five cuts and posting two top 25s in his last two starts. He has also only posted three rounds over par in his last 15 rounds. A look at his stats for the year also reflects this solidity as he has strong numbers in all key areas ranking 33^rd in approach and 44^th in putting.

On to this week then and while Woodland has not produced anything of note on his three previous visits to Silverado he does have a top ten to his name at the correlating Riviera. In addition of more interest to me is that two of his four wins on tour have come within two hours or so radius from here. His finest hour of course at Pebble Beach where he landed the US Open and in Reno at the Barracuda. With one of his other wins coming in Phoenix we know then he really comfortable out West.

It is noticeable that since being announced as a vice captain for the Ryder Cup in July Gary has performed really solidly and I have to think that being around the bulk of the team this week will have a positive effect on him.

We have seen the likes of Stewart Cink and Patton Kizzire reignite their careers here in recent years and I really like Woodland’s profile to do similar here this week.

RICO HOEY – 80/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Another player who catches my eye this week is Rico Hoey.

Hoey arrives in Napa at 106^th in the Fedex Cup standings so he has work to do over the coming weeks if he is to secure his spot in the coveted top 100 to lock up his card for next year.

Rico struggled for the early part of 2025 however since Texas at the end of March it has been very much feast or predominantly famine for him as he has sporadically punctuated a run of three or four poor events with a strong week.

More recently though he has upped his level of consistency making five cuts on the spin since finishing 11^th at the John Deere. This run included an eighth place at the Barracuda, which aside from coincidentally being the same position that last years winner here Kizzire finished in the 2024 Barracuda, was also a reminder that as someone who is based in California Rico is more than comfortable on the West Coast.

Hoey made his debut at Silverado last year posting a solid 37^th place finish before going on to play very nicely through the remainder of the Fall. Furthermore while he struggled on Saturday here last year Friday’s eye catching 66 showed he can more than handle the course.

If we then look at Rico’s stats for 2025 allowing for the fact that strong ball strikers tend to flourish here we can take plenty of heart from the fact that he sits 16^th in the Approach stats for the year.

I noted above that Rico played his best golf of 2024 at the back end of the year and having found some consistency of late I am happy to jump on him to produce a big performance here in what seems to be his favoured time of year.

TOM HOGE – 150/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Finally this week I will wrap things up by chancing Tom Hoge.

I mentioned earlier that recent form at the back end of the regular season does not tend to be a big pointer to who comes out on top here. From that point of view then I will overlook the fact that Tom has failed to post anything better than 33^rd since his sixth place finish at the Memorial in June.

Instead then I will chance that Hoge has had a reset since that 33^rd at the BMW and having just bagged his spot in the top 50, will come here relaxed and looking to get back on track.

If this is the case then what makes far more appeal is Hoge’s record in this event and that he notched his one tour win a couple of hours away from here at Pebble Beach.

With regards to his record here and Tom finished seventh here last year having produced nothing of any great note since a third at the Travelers in June, while the previous year he was 12^th here.

Hoge has shown he can snap runs of poor form with a strong result several times over the years with his seventh at the Memorial earlier this year a perfect example of this.

If he has then managed to reset over the break his strong iron game is perfect for this layout and I am happy to chance him at the triple digit odds.