BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Aug 11, 2025BMW Championship
It was a case of ‘close but no cigar’ for us in Memphis as one of picks Chris Kirk finished one shot shy of the places.
To be fair a bit like last week when Kirk saved our bacon we were never really at the races bar with the Georgia Bulldog. In the end then we can’t complain too much that Chris couldn’t bail us out for the second week running.
The event itself was won by Justin Rose who triumphed over JJ Spaun in extra holes.
The final days action will go down as one of the best on tour this season as Rose and Spaun battled it out with Scottie Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood who once again was found wanting having lead heading in to Sunday.
Huge credit to Rose though who showed again that when he is in ‘go mode’ that event at 45 he is still more than capable of competing with the games best.
So onwards we go to the second week of the Fedex Cup Play Off’s, The BMW Championship.
The field has been whittled straight down to 50 players and with those who have made it this far now guaranteed a seat at the table in all of the big Signature Events next year I expect there to be plenty of players in good spirits this week!
That said of course there is still work to be done particularly for those outside of the current top 30 rankings as they look to punch a ticket to East Lake.
The BMW Championship was first introduced on to the PGA Tour in its current format in 2007.
The tournament is run by the Western Golf Association who had also historically run the BMW Championship’s predecessor the Western Open.
Since the event became one of the Fedex Cup Play Off events it has rotated around several courses predominantly in the Illinois area including Conway Farms, Cog Hill GC, which was the host of the historical Western Open. This year we return to Caves Valley GC in Owings Mills, a suburb of Baltimore, in Maryland. The venue has hosted this event once before in 2021 when Patrick Cantlay triumphed.
The field as would naturally be expected is a stellar one with Scottie Scheffler of course dominating the market. Scheffler is then followed by the returning Rory McIlroy at single figure odds. This duo are then followed by Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas.
COURSE
The Caves Valley Club will play as a par 70 measuring 7601 yards.
The greens are Bentgrass.
The course was designed by Tom Fazio and was opened for play in 1991.
Other Fazio designs used on Tour include Quail Hollow the home of the Wells Fargo Championship and Shadow Creek, which hosted last years CJ Cup.
As noted above the course hosted this event in in 2021 while it also hosted the US Senior Open in 2002 and the Senior Players in 2017.
That event in 2021 was won by Patrick Cantlay with a total of 27- under. This time around though I wouldn’t expect a winning total anywhere near as low. Firstly the course has undergone some upgrades in relation to new greens and a cooling system, which will allow them to get the course firm and fast. Secondly and significantly the course will play as a par 70 this time around measuring 60yds longer than when it played as a par 72 last time around and this will naturally keep scoring down.
With nine par fours measuring over 470yds I expect big hitters could certainly have an advantage.
HISTORY
So let’s take a look at the last ten winners of the BMW Championship since 2010.
The winners of these events have been as follows;
2024 K Bradley
2023 V Hovland
2022 P Cantlay
2021 P Cantlay
2020 J Rahm
2019 J Thomas
2018 K Bradley
2017 M Leishman
2016 D Johnson
2015 J Day
2014 B Horschel
2013 Z Johnson
2012 R McIlroy
2011 J Rose
To me the key to the Fedex Cup Play Offs has always been momentum. From that point of view I thought I’d take a look at how the past winners here had faired in the previous Play Off events that year and you can see this in the table below.
Dell Tech Finish Fedex St J/Northern Trust Finish
2024 K Bradley 59
2023 V Holvland 13th
2022 P Cantlay - 57th
2021 P Cantlay - 11th
2020 J Rahm - 6th
2019 J Thomas - 12th
2018 K Bradley 49th 34th
2017 M Leishman 3rd MC
2016 D Johnson 8th 18th
2015 J Day 12th 1st
2014 B Horschel 2nd MC
2013 Z Johnson 27th DNP [5th at Wyndham prior start]
2012 R McIlroy 1st 24th
2011 J Rose 68th 6th
As we can see from the table above this event is historically where the momentum of the Play Off’s and recent form has really started to kick in and until Bradley’s win in 2018 all of the previous eight winners had posted a top 10 in their previous two starts coming in to the week.
In 2019 things changed slightly as we only had one Play Off event proceeding this week however Justin Thomas had played strongly at the Northern Trust the week before his victory here finishing twelfth and it is also worth mentioning he finished twelfth in his previous start as well at the WGC Fedex St Jude.
In 2021 Jon Rahm built on a sixth place finish the previous week at the Northern Trust to bag the trophy in Illinois, while in 2021 Patrick Cantlay had finished 11th in the Northern Trust the week before picking up the BMW trophy.
In 2022 Cantlay bucked the trend somewhat by finishing a lowly 57th the week prior, however he had posted three top tens in his three previous starts to that. In 2023 the pattern then reared its head again with Hovland triumphing on the back of a 13th place finish at the Fedex St Jude.
Last year on the face of it the winner Bradley had no momentum coming in having finished a lowly 59th in Memphis, however it is worth noting that this finish bagged him the 50th and final spot in the Fedex standings to get him in to all of the 2025 signature events so he was undoubtedly able to free wheel with the pressure off.
With the host course changing for this event every year there is limited value in studying the leaderboards as a whole from the recent years, however it is worth looking at the 2021 leaderboard at this course where the top ten were as follows;
1 P Cantlay
2 B Dechambeau
3 S Im
4 R McIlroy
5 E V Rooyen
T6 S Garcia, D Johnson
8 S Burns
T9 A Ancer, A Noren & J Rahm.
With Cantlay & Dechambeau battling out a play off that could in theory give a pointer to form at Memorial, a par 72 where both have great records, however again with the course playing as a par 70 this time the 2021 leaderboard may not be as pertinent.
WEATHER FORECAST
We look set for a hot dry week with temperatures sitting around the 90 degree mark all week and fingers crossed at the time of writing only Thursday showing the possibility of storms forecast.
Wind does not look to be an issue with nothing more than 10mph showing all week.
As I always say though…this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with four players this week as follows;
LUDVIG ABERG –20/1 – 2.5pts e/w – 1/5 - 1st 6 - FINISHED 7th
I will start this week with Ludvig Aberg.
With the course playing to a par 70 this time around at over 7600 yards it would seem to me that length is key and from that point of view bigger hitters will make up my team.
Ludvig has had a quiet summer however he produced a sold performance to finish eighth in Memphis where he ranked fifth off the tee and gained strokes in all key areas.
A winner earlier this year at Torrey Pines I cant help thinking that the lengthy that he appears to have mastered could draw a comparison to this week.
At 15th in Driving Distance on tour he also has the length we are looking for.
The Swede will no doubt be disappointed as to how his year has gone since that win and I can see him being motivated for a big week here.
CAMERON YOUNG –25/1 – 2pts E/W 1/5 odds 1st 6 - FINISHED 11th
Next up is Cameron Young.
Young finally broke through for his maiden PGA Tour title at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago.
With that monkey off his back it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he went on to win quickly for the second time.
Cameron played nicely last week in Memphis closing out with a 64 to finish fifth and he led the field off the tee for the week.
Heading now back to the North East where he originally comes from Young will be desperate to keep the momentum going and secure himself a place in Keegan Bradley’s Ryder Cup squad in his native New York.
At 17th on tour in Driving Distance Young has the requisite length we are looking for and I can see him backing up his Wyndham title here this week.
KURT KITAYAMA – 50/1 – 1pt E/W 1/5 odds 1st 6 - FINISHED 19th
Another big hitter who is in a rich vein of form at the moment is Kurt Kitayama.
Kitayama landed the spoils for us at the 3M Open recently with a superb weekend display and having played solidly at the Wyndham the week after he played really nicely to finish ninth in Memphis gaining strokes all across the board.
Kurt arrives in Maryland at 37th in the Fedex standings so he needs another big week to make it all the way to East Lake.
At eighth on tour in driving distance and 11th off the tee Kitayama has the game to flourish at Caves Valley this week, while the putter which had let him down for much of the year has warmed up of late.
We saw at Bay Hill that Kitayama is not afraid to win a big event in big company and with momentum on his side at the moment he is someone I want to stick with and be onboard.
JHONATTAN VEGAS – 90/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 45th
Finally I will wrap things up this week by chancing Jonny Vegas.
Like our other three picks Vegas gets it out there off the tee ranking 39th in driving distance.
Vegas has had a solid year and having played nicely to finish 13th in Memphis to land 49th spot in the Fedex and with it bag a place in all of 2026s Signature Events he can now free wheel it this week and have a run at the top 30.
Vegas has posted two top five finishes this year with the highlight coming when fifth at the PGA Championship on the Tom Fazio designed Quail Hollow and that could certainly be a pointer for this week.
I’ll take him this week then to put in another big showing and look to make the frame for us if nothing more at big odds.