Fedex St Jude Championship.
Fedex St Jude Championship.
Aug 04, 2025Fedex St Jude Championship
Despite the majority of our team playing poorly It was a profitable week at the Wyndham Championship for us as Chris Kirk bagged a full place return for us at 80/1.
The event itself will be noted for the week that Cameron Young finally made the breakthrough that he had been threatening for the past few years.
As is often the case in this type of situation when he did finally win Young won in style blowing the field away to post a six shot victory. It will be fascinating to see now that he has the monkey off his back if Young will go on to be a multiple winner in a short space of time in a comparable fashion to David Duval many years ago.
So with the regular PGA Tour season now all wrapped up it’s time for the Play Off’s.
As per the changes introduced prior to last year’s play-offs we for the second year we have a system whereby instead of the historical way of the top 125 making it to the first event we are down straight away to the top 70. The event is a ‘no cut’ event with all 70 players playing all four rounds.
Next week we will then see the top 50 on display in Maryland before we head to the regular season ending Tour Championship featuring the final top 30.
This year the prize on offer for those who make it through to next weeks BMW Championship is huge as those who make the top 50 will again be guaranteed a spot in all of next seasons Designated Events, which once more will bring with it massive pay days. For those hovering around that 50th spot heading in to this week then there will be just one thing on their mind.
Whereas for many years the scene of the first play-off event was always in the North East this year for the fourth year running the drama will take place in Tennessee as we head to Memphis for the Fedex St Jude event.
First played in 1958 the Fedex St Jude Classic has been a staple event of the tour for many years. And TPC Southwind has been the host course since 1989.
In 2018 though it was announced that the traditional Fedex St Jude Classic historically held in June before the US Open would go from the calendar with TPC Southwind instead taking over hosting the WGC, which was previously held at Firestone in Akron, and with the rejigging of the PGA Tour schedule, the event was allocated the post Open week slot.
In 2021 it was all change once more as it was announced that the WGC held late in the summer would be removed from the calendar and that from 2022 the Fedex St Jude Championship would be the first of the three play-off events to be held replacing the Northern Trust.
As you would expect we have a stellar field on display however somewhat controversially Rory McIlroy has chosen to skip the event. Ultimately though the PGA Tour only have themselves to blame for this as their tinkering this year with the East Lake format means that there is absolutely no incentive for those guaranteed to make it to East Lake to tee it up this week or next. I will save more on this years format though until we get to East Lake!
The market naturally is dominated by Scottie Scheffler who makes his first start since landing the Claret Jug. Scheffler is then followed by Xander Schauffele with it being 20/1 bar for the rest of the pack who are lead by Justin Thomas.
COURSE
TPC Southwind is a Par 70 measuring at 7244 yards.
The fairways feature Zoyzia grass which can also be found at East Lake home of the Tour Championship and Trinity Forest, which briefly held the Byron Nelson.
The greens are Champion Bermuda.
The course was originally designed by Ron Pritchard with consultation from Hubert Green & Fuzzy Zoeller in 1988 and opened for play in 1989.
TPC Southwind is a tough, technical test with fairways and greens being hard to find and water in play on 8 of the 18 holes. On this basis a good short game is normally key here.
Year in year out the course ranks as one, if not the, toughest par 70 on tour.
You will also no doubt see the stat come up on your TV screen over the week that TPC Southwind historically sees more balls in the water than any other course on the PGA Tour.
This means no lead is safe coming down the stretch here.
One man who will certainly testify to this is Robert Garrigus who famously took a seven on the 18th back in 2010 when he held a three shot lead, thus ending up in a play-off which ultimately lead to Lee Westwood being the grateful recipient of the trophy.
HISTORY
In a fairly unique scenario [outside of Major’s such as a US Open at Pebble or the PGA at Quail Hollow three years ago] we have an event on the calendar, where the host course has been pinched from two other regular tour event.
From that point of view we in theory have two angles that we need to look at, historical TPC Southwind form from the previous events, and form from this first Fedex play off event.
In all honesty though I see no real value in focusing on the Northern Trust as not only are we on a different course but we are in a completely different area of the US meaning we cannot even home in on those who perform well in the North East are of the US. I will therefore keep my focus on history at TPC Southwind.
If we take a look at recent winners of this event the most striking thing, which I have noted in previous years is that 15 of the previous 18 winners in Memphis were players who either hailed from or are based in the Southern or Eastern states in the US. These are Lucas Glover, Will Zalatoris, Abraham Ancer, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger [x2], Dustin Johnson [x2], Harris English, Harrison Frazer, Brian Gay, Ben Crane and Justin Leonard. The two exceptions were Fabien Gomez from Argentina and Lee Westwood.
Furthermore four of those winners, Zalatoris, Ancer, Frazar, Crane, Gay & Leonard all either hail from/are based in/attended college in Texas.
In simple terms guys from the Southern/Eastern area of the US are more at home in the hot sticky conditions that we see here, and of course on the Bermuda Greens, than the West Coast guys are.
From a correlating course point of view not unsurprisingly based on the above one of the Texas events, the Charles Schwab Challenge held on another par 70 track at Colonial CC leaps off the page at us. To expand further two time TPC Southwind Champion Daniel Berger has triumphed there, the2022 winner at Colonial Sam Burns lost out to Ancer here in 2021 in a play off while another former champion here Harris English has a runner up finish to his name at Colonial.
With regards to the recent form of the winners of the first play-off event coming in to the event a pattern had developed over recent years, which can be seen from the table below.
From 2013-2017 all the winners had been in strong form coming in to the week leading to a conclusion that we should look for a marquee player with good momentum coming in. In 2018 Bryson Dechambeau somewhat bucked this trend and took the trophy on the back of some fairly mediocre form, however the four subsequent winners Zalatoris, Finau, Reed and Johnson brought solid if unspectacular recent form in to the event.
Meanwhile the 2023 champion Lucas Glover rode the hot hand of his win at the Wyndham the previous week straight in to another victory here to post back to back wins.
Finally last years Champion Hideki Matsuyama had not been in great form on the PGA Tour however he had bagged the bronze medal on his previous start at the Olympics so he had have some momentum coming in.
With the slight exception of Glover then [although it shouldn’t be forgotten that Lucas is a former US Open Champion!] What we can clearly see though from this list is once we get in to the play offs we are invariably looking for a bigger marquee name and we are unlikely to see a shock three figure odds champion here.
Three Previous Starts – most Recent First
2024 H Matsuyama 3 66 MC
2023 L Glover 1 MC 5
2022 W Zalatoris 21 20 28
2021 T Finau 34 28 15
2020 D Johnson 12 WD MC
2019 P Reed 22 12 10
2018 B Dechambeau MC 30 51
2017 D Johnson 13 17 18
2016 P Reed 22 11 13
2015 J Day 1 12 1
2014 Hunter Mahan 7 15 MC
2013 A Scott 5 14 3
2012 N Watney 31 MC 19
That said there is one thing that has struck me over the initial two years since the schedule changed and that is that both winners here, Glover and Zalatoris played the Wyndham the week before whereas a lot of bigger names had been off since the Open Championship. It may be then that some of the marquee names were caught slightly cold here as they eased their way back in after a break.
Meanwhile last year as noted above Matsuyama had been in action at the Olympics a fortnight previously so again we had that recent competitive action.
The winning score posted by both Glover and Zalatoris in 2022 was 15- under while Matsuyama posted -17 last year. The final two WGC editions here have seen totals of 13- under and 16- under posted.
WEATHER FORECAST
After the potential for a storm early in the week fingers crossed we look set for four dry tournament days.
Not unsurprisingly for Memphis in August we have a week of hot temperatures in the mid 90s across all four days.
Wind does not look to be too much of a factor with nothing above 10-15mph gusts in the forecast over the week.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with four players this week as follows;
SAM BURNS– 33/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 6.
We saw last week in Cameron Young a victory for a player who had been in strong form prior to an underwhelming trip to the UK and I can see a similar situation unfolding this week with Sam Burns.
Burns turned a corner back at the RBC Heritage in April when finishing 13th and for the next three months he did everything but win posting three top seven finishes along the way. His nearest miss came in Canada when missing out in a play off while he was of course right in the hunt for the US Open in Oakmont the following week until stumbling right at the death to finish seventh. Allowing for the horrendous conditions the players were facing that Sunday though and the really tough break Burns got when looking for a ‘casual water’ drop he can hardly be accused of throwing that one away.
Sam then had a fairly underwhelming fortnight in Scotland and N Ireland where he made both cuts but did nothing more, while unsurprisingly after all the travel exertions he struggled the following week back on US soil at the 3M.
Rested after a week off now though Sam returns to action at a course we know he enjoys having finished second and fifth on two of his four visits.
Sam heads in to this week at 24th in the Fedex standings so he still has some work to do to guarantee his spot at East Lake while allowing for Young’s win and the recent great form of Gotterup he knows he has to produce a couple of big performances if he is to bag a Ryder Cup pick.
With a win and a sixth place finish on his last two visits to Colonial and hailing from the South Sam ticks all the right correlating boxes and I can’t ignore his credentials this week.
ROBERT MACINTYRE – 35/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next up I will side with Robert MacIntyre.
Like Burns MacIntyre was right in the hunt for his first Major at Oakmont and in a season that has seen him post five top tens he really is producing some excellent golf this year.
At 15th in the Fedex Cup and a certainty for the Ryder Cup Robert really is freewheeling for the next few weeks and he looks a great fit for another big week here.
MacIntyre attended college in Louisiana so the hot sticky conditions of Memphis in August will be perfectly familiar to him. Allowing for this it is not a surprise that his last two visits here have seen him finish 15th and seventh. Add in a sixth place at Colonial this year and we have a lot of strong pointers.
One of Robert’s top tens this year came recently at the Open where he was seventh. He then returned to action at the Wyndham finishing 44th so while not a great week he dusted off the cobwebs after his trip to the UK which as noted earlier is important here.
Allowing for Robert’s great form this year I will admit to being very pleasantly surprised by his odds this week and I can only assume there is a perception that he is far more suited to windy, wet conditions than what he faces here. Clearly though his record in the event speaks for itself and if you add this to his great form he is a must here for me this week.
CHRIS KIRK – 70/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Momentum is often a key factor at this time of year and having been on Chris Kirk last week as he played himself in to the play offs I am happy to stick with him here.
Born in Knoxville, Tennessee before being raised in Georgia Chris has a best finish of sixth at TPC Southwind. In addition like two of our other picks he is a past champion at Colonial, which we know correlates well here.
After a slow start to the year Kirk turned his season around when 12th at the US Open and second the following week in Detroit, while his last two starts have seen him post a 14th at the 3M and a fifth as noted last week at the Wyndham. If we then look at Chris’ stats at Sedgefield CC we’ll see that he ranked 14th off the tee and 11th in approach while the putter, which has been the issue for most of the year held up reasonably well.
A winner of a play off event many years ago and a winner more recently at the Sentry Chris knows how to win big events in big company.
Entering this week at 61st in the standings if he is to move on to next week he needs another big performance and I am keen to side with him to keep the momentum rolling.
DAVIS RILEY – 300/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Finally I will wrap things up by taking a chance on Davis Riley.
Riley as longer term readers will know owes this column nothing having memorably triumphed for us at odds of 200/1 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last year and that win coupled with his previous fourth place finish at Colonial immediately makes him of interest here.
This year has been an up and down year for Davis as having started it really poorly he put together a strong run of results from March through to May, the highlight of which was a runner up finish at Quail Hollow in the PGA Championship.
Since then though Davis has gone quiet again missing six of nine cuts and posting nothing better than a 57th in the limited field Travelers event.
Of late though there have been some signs that Riley’s game is close to turning the corner once more. At the Rocket Classic he posted a second round of 63 while last week at the Wyndham although he missed the cut his day two 65 should have sent him down the road in reasonable spirits.
A look at Riley’s history at TPC Southwind shows he has finished 31st and 43rd in two previous visits and interestingly on his last visit after opening with 75 he closed with rounds of 68 66 & 67.
Finally as a native of Mississippi who basis himself in Texas Davis very much ticks that ‘Southern states’ box for us as well.
Riley as we know is a somewhat mercurial player who at his best is capable of mixing it with the games biggest names and allowing for the noted pointers I am happy to roll the dice at big odds here.