3M Open

3M Open

it was a fascinating week at Royal Portrush for the Open Championship with Scottie Scheffler putting on a masterclass to land his fourth Major and first Claret Jug.

From our point of view it was a solid week as for the second time this year Harris English saved a Major for us by landing a full each way return at triple digits. English now has two runner up finishes in Major’s this year and I am sure he will be the first to admit he never even had a sniff at winning either!

Over at the Barracuda Championship it was a frustrating week as two of our picks including triple digit play Martin Laird finished one birdie or two points out of a full place. The event was won by Ryan Gerard who fulfilled the promise he has shown this year to bag his first tour title.

So after it’s trip to the UK and for some to California the tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, a suburb north of Minneapolis, for the Sixth edition of the 3M Open.

Not unsurprisingly on the back of the Open the field takes a bit of hit, however with only two more regular tour events to come after this week before the play-offs the focus will turn more to those needing some big performances to make the top 70 and to cement their place in the biggest of events next season.

The field and market headed up by the in form Sam Burns, Maverick McNealy and Wyndham Clark.

COURSE

TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71 measuring around 7450 yards.                        

The greens are bentgrass.

The course was designed by Arnold Palmer in consultation with Tom Lehman and was opened for play in 2000.

One possible reference here therefore could be Bay Hill, which was subject to an Arnold Palmer redesign in 2009, while it may also be worth looking at another Palmer design TPC Boston, which hosted the Dell Technologies Championship [formerly the Deutsche Bank] until 2018.

While TPC Twin Cities is only in its sixth year of hosting a PGA Tour event it was used for many years to host the 3M Champions Tour event.

It should be noted though that prior to the first staging of the 3M Open the course underwent renovation, which was overseen by Minnesotan native Tom Lehman [who will tee it up this week].

The changes made included adding trees and sand traps, enlarging lakes, particularly the one in front of the 18^th green, levelling mounding and expanding the rough.

In addition and perhaps most significantly, length was added to the course and instead of a par 72 playing to just under 7000yds, which historically greeted the Champions Tour, the PGA Tour players are faced by a 7450yd par 71.

As a result of this the par 5 sixth can play to over 600yds, the par 5 18^th to 597yds and what was the par 5 third will now be a par 4 playing to over 500yds.

Conversely though the course also boasts three driveable par 4s, which can be set up to play between 280 & 315yds. These are the 7^th, 10^th and 16^th holes.

HISTORY

So with only five years history let’s take a look at the top ten from those first five editions.

2024

1 J Vegas

2 M Greyserman

T3 M Kuchar, M McNealy

5 T Pendrith

T6 P Fishburn, K Kitayama, S Theegala

T9 JJ Spaun, KH Lee, M Nesmith.

2023

1 L Hodges

T2 JT Poston, M Laird, K Streelman

T5 D Wu, K Mitchell.

T7 A Baddeley, T Finau, S Ryder

T10 C Davis, S Stevens, E Grillo.

2022

1 T Finau

T2 S Im, E Grillo

T4 S Piercy, T Hoge, J Hahn

T7 D Willett, G Sigg, C Tarren

10 C Hadley.

2021

1 C Champ

T2 L Oosthuizen, C Schwartzel & J Vegas

5 K Mitchell

T6 R Armour, A Hadwin, KH Lee, M Pereira, B Stuard.

2020

1 Michael Thompson

2 Adam Long

T3 Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Max Homa, Charles Howell III, Alex Noren, Charl Schwartzel, Robby Shelton, Cameron Tringale, Richie Werenski.

2019

1 Matthew Wolff

T2 Bryson Dechambeau & Collin Morikawa

4 Adam Hadwin

T5 Carlos Ortiz & Wyndham Clark

T7 Lucas Glover, Brian Harman, Sam Burns, Joey Garber, Troy Merritt, Hideki Matsuyama.

The suspicion when the event first came on tour was that with the extra length added to the course the setup would favour bigger hitters and with Matthew Wolff triumphing in 2019, Bryson finishing in a tie for second [he was still pretty long prior to his bulking out!], and other big hitters like Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns performing well this certainly appeared to be the case. Having said that as Harman and Merritt showed there was room for a shorter hitter to perform well here as well. All in all though length certainly appeared to be an advantage.

In 2020 of the top dozen home only Tony Finau could be put in the ‘bomber’ category and with Michael Thompson winning it would seem that everyone has a chance here.

In 2021 those focusing on the bigger hitters may well have landed on Cameron Champ, [as longer term readers will remember we did!!] and he duly obliged, while in 2022 Finau, another big hitter got his hands on the trophy with another bomber Callum Tarren making the frame. Equally though the likes of E Grillo, T Hoge, J Hahn and G Sigg made the frame so while the bombers have as a whole won the day here there is certainly room for those who are shorter off the tee but pick a course apart to thrive.

In 2023 L Hodges lead the field a merry dance to win by seven shots and was followed home by JT Poston, Martin Laird and Kevin Streelman, none of whom could be described in anyway as ‘bombers’.

Finally to bring us up to date another big hitter Jonny Vegas triumphed last year while McNealy, Pendrith, Kitayama and Fishburn all known as long off the tee finished in the top eight.

Digging a bit deeper and while we know the 2019 winner Matthew Wolff is no slouch off the tee it was his overall tee to green game that got the job done for him as he finished the week second for Strokes-Gained-Tee-To-Green and first in Strokes-Gained-Approach-To-The-Green. Meanwhile the putter seemed less important as he finished the week 39^th with the flatstick, and on Sunday despite shooting 65 he lost just under two strokes to the field with the putter!

Looking at the others who finished prominently on the board in 2019 and Dechambeau produced a strong all round week both from tee to green and with the putter while Morikawa predictably lead the field in approach play but ranked only 47^th for the week with the putter.

Meanwhile looking at the 2020 statistics and Michael Thompson only ranked 88^th off the tee but fourth in approach play and sixth in putting while runner up Long after struggling in the opening two days caught fire with his approaches over the weekend gaining over 6.5 shots over Saturday and Sunday. It would seem then that TPC Twin Cities is very much a ‘second shot’ course.

Returning to Champ’s victory and while as you would expect for a winner he was solid in all areas he ‘only’ ranked 27^th from tee to green and 19^th in approach play on the week and it was actually his flat stick, for which he ranked first, which was the key to his victory.

In 2022 Finau produced a dominant long game display last year ranking third off the tee, third in approach and first from tee to green, however he was only 42^nd in putting.

Hodges lead the field in Approach play and was fourth for the week in putting, a potent combination!, while Vegas ranked ninth off the tee and eighth in both approach play and putting.

With the event taking the spot straight after the Open Championship the other obvious thing to mention is ‘Major fatigue’, with, as we regularly see, players who were in the hunt in the big event the week before struggling to perform the week after.

Up until the end of 2023 If we look at the winners of events directly following a Major since the start of the 20/21 season they have been Hudson Swafford, Robert Streb, Stewart Cink, Jason Kokrak, Harris English, Cameron Champ, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Emiliano Grillo, Keegan Bradley and Lee Hodges of these only English had been seriously in the mix the week before finishing third at Torrey Pines.

In 2024 a certain Mr Scheffler has torn that theory to pieces landing both the Heritage and the Travelers after the Masters and US Open respectively. There were wins though for the unheralded duo of Davis Riley and Vegas here though following the other two Majors.

This year the post Major events have been won by Justin Thomas, Ben Griffin and Keegan Bradley. Thomas had finished down the field at the Masters while as we know Bradley is always hugely motivated at the Travelers with it being his home event and ‘fifth Major’.

Delving further though and if we look at the winners of the event when a regular PGA Tour event was played directly after the Open going back to 2010 [2019 saw a WGC played post Open] we will see five didn’t play in the Open, five missed the cut, while three played the Open with only two of those Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker seriously in the mix at the Open.

  Here is a list of how they fared on the Links the week before;

2024 Jonny Vegas DNP

2023 Lee Hodges MC

2022 Tony Finau 28

2021 Cameron Champ DNP

2018 Dustin Johnson MC

2017 Jhonattan Vegas MC

2016 Jhonattan Vegas DNP [Finished 4^th at Barbasol]

2015 Jason Day 4^th

2014 Tim Clark DNP

2013 Brandt Snedeker 11^th

2012 Scott Piercy DNP

2011 Sean O’Hair MC

2010 Carl Pettersson DNP

As we can see then with only Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker having been any kind of factor at the Open it is quite possible to conclude that understandably the long week of ‘Major pressure’ on top of all the travelling it entails is not the ideal preparation.

From the point of view of form coming in to the week of the five 3M Open winners to date 2019 Champion Wolff had only very recently joined the pro ranks however while big things were expected finishes of MC and 80 at the Rocket Mortgage and Travelers over the previous weeks had hardly telegraphed a big week here.

2020 winner Thompson had shown a glimpse of form with an eighth place finish at the RBC Heritage a month before he arrived on the back of a run of MC 64 46 and had not posted another top 20 in the calendar year so he was certainly not arriving in strong form.

2021 winner Champ however had telegraphed a return to form with an eye catching 11^th place at the John Deere a fortnight before, while Finau not having done much in his previous three starts, with a best of 13^th, did at least close out his week at St Andrews with a 66 to take some positive momentum back across the Atlantic.

Hodges arrived on the back of three missed cuts in his previous four starts, however he had posted a 12^th at the Scottish Open. From a course form point of view he had also finished 16^th here in his only previous start the year before.

Vegas also had a second place finish here to his name in 2021 and had also posted three top 30 finishes in his previous three starts including a 20^th last time out at the John Deere so a case could certainly be made for him.

Looking at correlating courses and as well as Arnold Palmer designs the obvious reference that has developed over the first few years is the Honda Classic. Michael Thompson is a winner of both events while Lee Hodges has a 14^th and ninth in his two trips to PGA National. Vegas meanwhile was fourth there in 2017. In addition a further scan down last years leaderboard here gives us another former Honda champion Keith Mitchell in fifth place.

Finally with regards to the winning score Wolff triumphed on -21 in 2019,  Thompson with -19 in 2020, Champ with -15 in 2021 and Finau with -17 in 2022, Hodges posted an event record of -24 in 2023, while Vegas posted -17 last year.

WEATHER FORECAST

As is the norm here we are set for a week of high temperatures, which should sit around 90 all week.

At the time of writing there is the possibility of a storm particularly on Thursday and Saturday but hopefully they will stay away.

Wind does not look gto be too much of an issue with gusts peaking at maybe 15mph+ on Thursday

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

JAKE KNAPP – 35/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Jake Knapp arrives in Minnesota in strong form having backed up a fourth place at the Rocket Classic with a 21^st at the John Deere and an eyecatching 22^nd in Scotland.

Long off the tee, which we know is an advantage here Jake has excellent correlating form having won in Mexico last year, which links well here through Finau, Champ and Kitayama and having finished fourth and sixth the last two years at the Cognizant.

Arriving after a week off this looks an excellent opportunity for Jake to bag his second tour win.

KURT KITAYAMA – 35/1 –1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Another big hitter who arrives with some solid recent form and strong correlating form is Kurt Kitayama.

Fourteenth in the Barracuda last week Kitayama was fifth prior to that at the John Deere.

Kurt has a runner up finish in Mexico to his name in 2022 while he was also third the same year at the Cognizant. In addition we don’t have to speculate that Kitayama likes this track as he was sixth last year, while the icing on the cake is that his lone tour win to date came at the Arnold Palmer designed Bay Hill.

At 110^th in the Fedex standings Kitayama is fully motivated here and I see a big week ahead. ,

CAMERON CHAMP – 50/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 

Having been on Cameron Champ a few times of late I jumped off him for the two opposite field events due to a combination of the restrictive odds and that I didn’t see either course as a good fit for him. This week though I am very happy to jump back on board.

After a poor start to the year on the PGA Tour when playing opportunities arose, Cameron finally sparked to life at the Byron Nelson in May to finish 14^th. Since then he has posted three further top 20 finishes in five starts.

After a busy schedule of late the MC at the Barracuda may actually be a positive giving him a breather coming in to this week. Returning then to a course where Cameron has won and subsequently finished 15^th and 12^th he is a must for me here.

PATRICK FISHBURN – 55/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next up Patrick Fishburn.

Another player languishing just outside the Fedex top 100 Fishburn has produced some of his best golf this season on TPC layouts when finishing fifth at the Valero Texas Open and more recently 18^th at the John Deere. He then backed up that recent performance with a sixth at the Isco.

Fishburn found his mojo on Tour this time last year and posted a sixth place in this event which included a third round of 63. I’ll take him to repeat the trick here this year.

ISAIAH SALINDA – 150/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10

Finally I will wrap up our team of big hitters by chancing Isaiah Salinda.

Salinda’s best finish on tour this year came when third in Mexico and that is enough to initially put him on our radar here. He also played nicely to finish 39^th in the correlating Cognizant Classic.

Salinda has struggled of late however he played solidly at the Barracuda last week to finish 35^th and with his big hitting profile very much in keeping with past winners here I am happy to risk the talented Californian to thrive on debut here.