John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic

It was a disappointing week for us at the Rocket Classic as we drew a blank. Four of our five picks made the weekend however in a low scoring event only one of them Cam Champ kept pace. In the end though while a birdie at the 72^nd hole from Champ would at least have brought us some returns he finished his week with a bogey.

To rub salt in to our wound the event was won by Aldrich Potgieter who as regular readers know I have championed on a few occasions this year including when he lost out in unlucky fashion in a play off in Mexico.

On this occasion the South African triumphed in a play off over Max Greyserman…who we were on last week….

Frustrating all round no doubt then however as always in this game we need to be thick skinned and pick ourselves up and move on to this weeks event, The John Deere Classic.

With the Open Championship now two weeks away the John Deere Classic moved in 2022 from its traditional slot of the final warm up event on the PGA Tour before the battle on the links for the Claret Jug.

The reason for this is to accommodate the tour’s ‘strategic alliance’ with the DP World Tour, which lead to next weeks Scottish Open being given PGA Tour status, therefore the John Deere moves forward a week on the schedule to avoid being an opposite field event.

The John Deere Classic first became an official PGA Tour event in 1972. At this time it was known as the Quad Cities Open. After a couple of further changes of sponsor it became the John Deere Classic in 1999 and since 2000 it has been played at TPC Deere Run.

The event is played in Silvis, Illinois, which is just around 1000 miles west of last weeks stop in Connecticut for the Travelers.

Despite the event avoiding the ‘opposite field’ status it would have held next week, the line up on display is a poor one. Favouritism honours go to the in form Ben Griffin who is followed by Jason Day, Denny McCarthy and Si Woo Kim.

COURSE

TPC Deere Run is a par 71 measuring just over 7250 yds

The greens are Bentgrass.

The course was designed by DA Weibring and was opened in 1999, it then underwent some renovation over 2006 & 2007.

TPC Deere Run is basically your archetypal birdie fest and if you don’t make plenty of them you won’t be in with a shout this week.

HISTORY

Let’s firstly take a look at the winners going back to 2011;

2024 Davis Thompson

2023 Sepp Straka

2022 JT Poston

2021 Lucas Glover

2019 Dylan Frittelli

2018 Michael Kim

2017 Bryson Dechambeau

2016 Ryan Moore

2015 Jordan Spieth

2014 Brian Harman

2013 Jordan Spieth

2012 Zach Johnson

2011 Steve Stricker

Although as already mentioned the event tends to attract a fairly weak field until 2018 over the recent years all of the winners have actually been players from the higher echelons of the game, particularly when seen in relation to the field teeing it up on the week.

These winners have been Steve Stricker x 2, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth x 2 [including his maiden tour win], Brian Harman, Ryan Moore and Bryson Dechambeau.

In 2018 this all changed though as unfancied Michael Kim arrived here on the back of three missed cuts and raced away with the trophy at whatever price you would have liked.

2019 then followed in a similar pattern as largely unfancied Dylan Frittelli triumphed having managed nothing better than 46^th over the previous two months. 2021 saw former US Open Champion Lucas Glover triumph for the first time in ten years. 2023 then saw Sepp Straka bag a second PGA Tour title, while last year saw the highly touted Davis Thompson break through.

If we look at previous course history of these winners it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

The two course specialists Stricker & Zach Johnson obviously had a bundle of course form prior to their wins.

Frittelli was making his debut here in 2019 [the only one of the last ten winners who was] while 2018 winner Kim had finished 71^st & 47^th on two previous visits. Jordan Spieth had made the cut here on one previous visit prior to his first win, Brian Harman had a top twenty to his name in two previous visits, whilst Bryson Dechambeau had missed the cut on his only previous visit.

Ryan Moore however did have two top 10s to his name in four previous visits.

Similarly Glover had shown a liking to the track finishing tenth and 25^th in his two previous visits. With Poston however current form certainly trumped course form as JT had posted nothing better than 64^th here in four previous visits.

Straka had a MC and a 26 in his two previous visits here while Thompson had finished 31^st on his lone prior start in the event.

As for the recent form of past winners coming in to the event this throws up some interesting numbers.

Firstly three of the winners since 2011 had already won on tour that season. These were Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth.

Five of the other winners over the past ten years, Poston, Dechambeau, Moore, Harman and Spieth on his maiden win, had all posted previous top ten’s on the season.

In addition Moore and Dechambeau had both finished in the top 20 in their previous start, while Harman had a top 10 finish four starts prior.

As noted before Poston had been runner up a week earlier while Thompson similarly arrived here on the back of a runner up finish at the Rocket Classic the week before.

As already mentioned though Frittelli and Kim threw all of these stats out of the window, while although 2022 winner Glover had an eighth at the Charles Schwab four starts prior he had managed nothing better than 37^th in his previous three starts. To be honest then we seem to be looking at an event where ‘anything goes’ form wise coming in.

From a correlating course point of view I would certainly highlight other low scoring TPC tracks. A look at TPC Summerlin for example shows us that Poston, Ryan Moore and Dechambeau have won both events, while Sepp Straka has the Amex trophy in his locker which features the TPC Stadium course. Finally Lucas Glover has a win at TPC Southwind on his resume, while Straka lost out in a play off there in 2022.

As I mentioned earlier TPC Deere Run basically offers up a barrage of birdie’s and this is reflected in the winning score over recent years.

The ‘highest’ winning scores we have seen in recent years was Perry’s -16 back in 2008 and Bryson Dechambeau’s winning total of -18 in 2017, while the lowest was Thompson’s -28 last year.

The average winning score though tends to be around the -20 mark and last year saw Glover triumph with -19.

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for another very warm week with temperatures in the mid to high 90s. As is the want with these conditions the heat comes with the risk of a storm, particularly over the weekend.

Winds could also be an issue through the week with the first three days in particular showing the possibility for gusts of 20mph+.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

JASON DAY – 22 /1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED MC

I shall start this week with Jason Day.

I will admit that Day is a player I often struggle to catch right however he is the obvious class act to me in this field and having finished fourth last time out the Travelers he should arrive here in good spirits.

Day’s most recent victory came at the Byron Nelson on a TPC track while he is also a winner at TPC Sawgrass. He was also third at the Amex earlier this year, which we know links well here. Furthermore his most recent visit to the Shriners saw him finish eighth.

We know then Jason can flourish on TPC layouts.

Day was in poor form last year when he played the event for the first time in many years however he still shot four solid rounds to finish 23^rd.

In much better shape this year I expect a much stronger showing with a bold bid for a win.

MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN – 33 /1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 21st

Next up for me is Michael Thorbjornsen.

Sometimes it pays to keep things pretty simple and Thorbjornsen’s credentials stick out here like a sore thumb.

The young phenom struggled for the first part of 2025 however since a runner up finish at the Corales in April he has been performing consistently making all his cuts.

A wrist injury post PGA derailed him slightly however he was straight back in the saddle last week at the Rocket Classic where he finished fourth.

Michael was runner up here last year and clearly as he showed again last week he is someone to have on side in a low scoring birdie fest.

We hit the jackpot here last year by siding with a young aggressive player with a hot hand in Davis Thompson and I am happy to look to repeat the trick with Thorbjornsen.

DOUG GHIM – 80 /1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 31st

Next up I am drawn to the credentials of Doug Ghim.

Ghim has had a quiet 2025 to date however he found his game in Detroit last week to finish 19^th. Furthermore a look at Doug’s stats for the week showed he was solid in all areas with both his short game and encouragingly his usual weak link the putter firing nicely.

Ghim has been steady here over the years without producing anything spectacular with a best of 18^th however he has a superb record on TPC layouts having finished in the top 10 at Sawgrass and at the Amex, while he was runner up at the Shriners last year which is real pointer for here.

Ghim was also brought up a couple of hours away from here in Illinois so this should very much feel like a home game to him.

Doug needs to find a couple of big weeks otherwise his card is in serious jeopardy and on a track, which has seen several shorter, more accurate types have plenty of success over the years I am keen to run with him this week.

CAMERON CHAMP –70/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 8. - FINISHED 27th

Next up I feel compelled to stick with Cameron Champ again.

At a time of year when plenty of the courses play to his big hitting strengths Champ looks a man to follow over the next few weeks as he aims to regain his tour card.

Fifteenth at the Byron Nelson early in May Cameron then notched a top ten in Canada where he was the 36 hole leader and followed this with a 19^th in Detroit last week.

Champ lead the field off the tee last week while he was also first in Greens in regulation and second in Driving Accuracy.

As we know Champ is very much a feast or famine type of player and on another track where he finished 11^th in 2021 having been in the mix heading in to Sunday I will stick with him this week.

ADAM SCHENK –  125/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Finally allowing for the weakness in the field combined with his history on the track I cant resist chancing Adam Schenk at juicy triple digit odds.

Schenk who hails from Indiana and was brought up on a farm has often talked about how comfortable he feels in this event in this part of the world and he has shown this with three top six finishes in his last five visits here.

Schenk is struggling this year however he has still found a way to notch two top tens including a fifth at the CJ Cup in May, a result, which snapped a run of six straight missed cuts.

After qualifying for and making the cut in the US Open Adam missed the cut last week in Detroit, however he posted 5- under with two under par rounds so there was no real disaster there. I’ll risk him this week then to bounce back and get in the hunt once again on arguably his favourite track on tour.