RBC Canadian Open

RBC Canadian Open

It was a damp squib of a week for us at the Memorial Tournament where in all honesty we were never really at the races.

One of our selections Patrick Cantlay did threaten to limit the damage and bag a place return for us on Sunday however a really poor back nine where his putter deserted him dashed any hopes on that front and we ended up with a blank week.

The event itself was won by Scottie Scheffler who defended his title from last year and in doing so bagged his third trophy of 2025 and his second in three weeks. After a sluggish start by his lofty standards, to the year Scheffler has really found his stride now and at this stage you wouldn’t bet against him repeating his heroics of 2024 and winning several times more.

So onwards we go for the final event before the years third Major, the US Open as the tour heads north for the RBC Canadian Open.

In 2019 the RBC Canadian Open moved from its historical slot the week after the British Open to being played the week before the US Open. Last year it was all change again for the event as it jumped a week earlier on the schedule with the Memorial event sandwiched between this stop and the US Open. This year it is back to the norm as the event returns to its more regular slot as the final warm up event before the US Open.

 The RBC Canadian Open was first played in 1904 and has been played continuously since, bar breaks during WWI and WWII and then over the past two years.

The event is the third longest standing on the PGA Tour calendar behind the US Open and Open Championship.

The event has historically hopped around different courses in Canada however since 2013 it has been played at Glen Abbey GC in Oakville, Ontario every year apart from in 2014. In 2022 though it move to St George’s G&CC in Toronto, Ontario, a venue which last hosted this event in 2010, while in 2023 we remained in the Toronto area as Oakdale Golf & CC plays host for the first time.

In 2024 the event remained in the Ontario area at Hamilton G&CC. This while we are once more in the Toronto area the event will be hosted for the first time at TPC Toronto Osprey Valley [North Course].

The market is dominated by Rory McIlroy who has chosen to play this event as his final prep for the US Open as opposed to last weeks Memorial Tournament. The Northern Irishman is then followed by Ludvig Aberg, home favourite Corey Conners and Shane Lowry.

COURSE

TPC Toronto Osprey Valley [North Course]is a par 70 measuring just under 7400yds.

The greens are Bent Grass.

A parkland style course described by its website as “being built around wide corridors and challenging green sites with deep bunkers”, the North Course at TPC Toronto was originally designed by Doug Carrick in 2001 before undergoing a full redesign under the guidance of Ian Andrew in 2023.

There are two Par 5s, the 1^st and the 18^th, measuring 542yds and 581yds while there are four par fours on the card measuring over 500yds.

HISTORY

With a new course in play we obviously can’t put too much stock in event form other than, however form ‘north of the border’ is of course a positive so for what it’s worth I have listed the winners of the event going back to 2010.

The winners of these events have been as follows;

2024    R McIntyre

2023    N Taylor

2022    R McIlroy

2019    R McIlroy

2018    D Johnson

2017    J Vegas

2016    J Vegas

2015    J Day

2014    T Clark

2013    B Snedeker

2012    S Piercy

2011    S O’Hair

2010    C Pettersson

As I say with no course form to go on there really is little to see here.

Since the event moved to the pre US Open slot in 2019 there have been three editions played in that slot. Two of those have been won by Rory McIlroy who we know is a player who loves to play the week before a Major and has no fear about ‘peaking too early’ and winning in that slot. The other edition was won by Nick Taylor who of course as a Canadian was fully motivated that week. Aside from home players though [and McIlroy!] I would be wary of siding with any big name players who choose to tee it up here as they will most likely be tinkering with their game in advance of the years third Major.

With little else to go on the only other avenue I would explore is players who have consistently proven themselves on other TPC tracks used on tour and/or on Par 70 layouts.

WEATHER FORECAST

The forecast currently shows the potential for a storm on Wednesday, which could well soften conditions up however touch wood the tournament days do not show the potential for any interruptions as I write. That said Friday & Saturday do show the potential for some showers while temperatures look set to sit in the low 70s.

Wind does not look to be an issue so scoring conditions should be good.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

KURT KITAYAMA –55/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1^st 8

First up this week I will turn to Kurt Kitayama.

Kitayama has largely struggled in 2025 and until recently he had notched nothing better than a 33^rd place finish at TPC Sawgrass.

Three starts ago though this all changed as he bounced back to form with a fifth place finish at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. This was then followed by a narrowly missed cut at the PGA Championship before he posted a solid 22^nd place at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Some positive signs then but nothing too dramatic, so why turn to Kurt this week? Well the main reason is Kitayama really does seem to spring to life when he tees it up on a TPC layout. Firstly of course we have the recent fifth place at the CJ Cup however prior to that his best finish this year as noted above had been at Sawgrass.

If we then go back to last year he notched a ninth place at TPC Summerlin at the Shriners, a sixth place at TPC Minnesota at the 3M Open, an eighth at TPC Scottsdale and another top 20 at Sawgrass.

A look at Kitayama’s stats this year show us that the closer to the hole he has got the worse he has performed with his putter mostly letting him down along with his approach play.

If we look at his stats most recently at Colonial though there was some positive signs on the greens while his approach play caught the eye on Saturday. Meanwhile when fifth at the Byron Nelson he ranked 19^th in approach play and 30^th in putting.

Longer than average off the tee Kitayama can certainly be wayward at times however this should not penalise him too much this week, instead his long iron play which has been a strength this year should be an asset this week.

I’ll take Kitatyama this week then to build on his recent uptick in form and deliver once more on a TPC layout.

MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN  75/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - WD BEFORE START

Next up for me is Michael Thorbjornsen.

Thorbjornsen burst out of college last year on to the PGA Tour via the University rankings with a huge reputation as the next ‘can’t miss kid’ who is going to set the tour alight.

At the start of this year though it is fair to say Michael struggled to live up to this reputation and he had managed nothing better than a 39^th by the time we reached the second half of April.

That all changed though at the Corales where Michael finished second and he then went on to finish fourth in the Zurich alongside Karl Vilips. This was then followed by three solid made cuts including a great opening 36 holes at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow before he faded over the weekend.

Slightly concerningly the 23yr old then withdrew from the Charles Schwab Challenge siting a wrist injury, however as I write he is currently in to his second 18 of the day at US Open qualifying so whatever the issue was doesn’t appear to have been too serious.

From a TPC Course form point of view we can take heart from his runner up finish at the John Deere last summer, however in all honesty my overriding reason for siding with Michael this week is that with the course being new to pretty much everyone this is a rare opportunity for a rookie to tee it up on a level playing field course experience wise. If you then add in the fact that many of the bigger names here will have one eye on next week this looks a perfect situation for someone of his undoubted talent to pounce.

A native of Ohio Thorbjornsen should feel pretty comfortable across the border in Canada and I am happy to chance him here this week.

MATTI SCHMID -  80/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next cab of the rank for me this week is Matti Schmid.

The German’s 2025 to date has been very much feast or famine with nine missed cuts in 16 starts, however when he has made the weekend he has really made it count posting seven top 30 finishes including four top tens.

Of late Matti has really found his stride posting three top tens in his four starts prior to missing the cut last weekend at the Memorial.

Moving on to this week then and obviously there is always going to be some guesswork when a new layout in play, however my hunch is that Schmid will enjoy this weeks test.

Firstly Matti has notched some decent performances over the past couple of years when TPC courses have been in play finishing sixth at the Amex in 2023, 26^th on debut at the Players in 2024 and 12^th and third respectively at the 3M Open and Shriners later in the year.

If we then look at Schmid’s stats for 2025 to date and he sits 37^th in both approach play and putting, so he is performing well in the areas I anticipate will be key this week. In addition with the course featuring several par fours over 500yds long it is nice to see that Matti actually ranks first on tour in approach play from 175-200yds.

In a week then with little to go on I ‘ll take Schmid to continue his good recent form on a track, which I believe will play to his strengths..

ANTOINE ROZNER– 150/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up I will take a chance that Antoine Rozner can turn his string of solid efforts this year in to a big week.

The Frenchman bagged himself a PGA Tour card via a really solid year on the DP World Tour in 2024 and so far without pulling up any trees he has been a model of consistency.

Looking at his results to date and Antoine has played 11 events, making ten cuts with a best of 13^th at CJ Cup Byron Nelson recently, solid stuff then however unfortunately due to the way the points are stacked this only adds up to 147^th in the Fedex standings so he really does need some big weeks.

On to this week then and Rozner’s strengths are clearly in his approach play for which he ranks 14^th on tour with the putter the weak link for which he currently ranks 157^th. What could play to his advantage this week though is that the greens on show will be new to all of the players so this could act as an equaliser.

Longer than average off the tee Rozner is another who flourishes with the long irons so this should also stand him in good stead this week.

As we know there are very small margins between finishing 40^th each week and being right in the hunt, I’ll take a chance this week than that with a solid French support behind him in Canada, this proven DP World Tour winner can produce a big week.

DANNY WALKER –  150/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10

I will wrap things up for this week by returning to a player we were on recently at Myrtle Beach, Danny Walker.

Walker was in the hunt for us through 54 holes at Myrtle Beach, however I had the pleasure of witnessing him deliver a very disappointing Sunday, which saw him tumble down the leaderboard in to 34^th position. All part of his learning curve though I am sure.

A frustrating end to that week no doubt then and following on from this Danny went on to miss the cut at Colonial. None of this though should have us lose sight of the fact that to date this has been a hugely successful rookie season for Walker, which currently sees him sat at 70^th in the Fedex Cup standings.

The highlight of Walker’s season to date of course saw him get a last minute spot in The Players Championship only for him to go on and finish sixth. A superb effort and one that, coming as it did on a TPC set up brings him on to our radar this week. Add in his team effort to finish 12^th in the Zurich at TPC Louisiana and his solid 25^th at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and as I have noted previously the Floridian seems to be someone who enjoys TPC set ups.

Longer than average off the tee and with his strength no doubt lying in his approach play Danny certainly looks to have the right profile for this weeks test. The icing on the cake however is that Danny should have really positive vibes returning to TPC Toronto.

To expand further and while it should be noted that the victory came on a different neighbouring course Walker bagged the trophy in 2022 in the Osprey Valley Open in a successful campaign on the PGA Tour of Canada, which saw him bag three further top tens. As I say then surely positive vibes for Walker as he returns north of the border and particularly to this area.

I’ll take him this week then to flourish on a TPC set up once more.

UPDATED 3rd JUNE

STEVEN FISK - 150/1 -1pt E/W - 1/5 1st 8

With the withdrawal of Thorbjornsen I will add in Steven Fisk who was last off my list this week.

At 20th in driving distance, 14th from tee to green and 30th in approach play this weeks track should be a good fit for Fisk. Meanwhile his nemesis the putter should hopefully be neutralised a bit by these greens being new to pretty much everyone. In addition of course as a rookie with the course being new his lack of familiarity with it wont disadavantage him.

Fisk has a best of fourth this year in Puerto Rico while of late he has been performing solidly making his last three cuts. Furthermore he played nicely in final US Open qualifying and while not making it through he is second alternate so he has a fair chance of getting in.