The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Apr 28, 2025The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
It was a week off for us last week as we sat out the Zurich Classic pairs event won by Andrew Novak & Ben Griffin, both of whom had of course been knocking on the door for a while for a break through win.
Talking of which and prior to that though we had a spectacular week as we landed the PGA Tour ‘double’. Firstly at the RBC Heritage Signature event Justin Thomas delivered on the promise he had shown of late and which lead to our confidence in him, to return to the winners enclosure for the first time in three years.
JT had been pretty much at the head of affairs since his scintillating opening day 61, however he headed in to Sunday one off the pace. In what then turned in to a back nine dual between Thomas and local hero, the aforementioned Novak, Thomas could only watch on as Novak had an 8ft putt in regulation for the win. Unfortunately for Novak he couldn’t hold his nerve and a week effort saw JT need no second invitation as a he drained a 20ft putt on the first play off hole for the win and to land the spoils for us at 18/1.
Meanwhile over at the Corales our 45/1 pick Garrick Higgo came out on top by a shot on a blustery Sunday over Joel Dahmen and Michael Thorbjornsen.
Dahmen had the trophy in his grasp however he made bogey at the final three holes and with Thorbjornsen also bogeying the 72nd the win was somewhat gifted to Higgo.
You undoubtedly have to feel for the hugely likeable Dahmen who spoke honestly afterwards about the defeat, however we have had enough weeks over the years where we have had to swallow a tough loss so I am certainly not going to complain about the bit of luck we got across both events.
Add that to landing the 80/1 win with Rose for First Round Leader at Augusta it has been a fantastic few weeks for us!
So we move on in great spirits and the tour heads back to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
The event was first held in 1944 and has throughout its history been played in the Dallas area. In 1968 the event was renamed The Byron Nelson Classic and after a series of sponsors over the years AT&T became the title sponsor in 2015.
In 2018 the tournament moved to the Crenshaw/Coore designed Trinity Forest GC however the links style venue was not to everyone’s taste and in early 2020 it was announced that the event that year would be the last to be held at that venue with the tournament moving to a new host course TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney some 30 miles from Dallas.
Unfortunately the 2020 edition was then cancelled due to the Covid 19 pandemic meaning that the event was only held for two years at Trinity Forest before it moved in 2021.
Last year saw further change as while the event remained at TPC Craig Ranch it was all change on the title sponsor front as after AT&T ended their long standing relationship with the event the CJ Group stepped up. CJ first hooked up with the PGA Tour in 2017 when sponsoring the event in South Korea, however with that event falling by the wayside it would seem this is a good fit for them to continue their relationship with the tour, allowing for the number of Korean players who live in the local area.
The market is dominated by Scottie Scheffler, the world number one is then followed by Jordan Spieth, Ben an, Sungjae Im and Sam Burns.
COURSE
So this year we return to TPC Craig Ranch in Mckinney, Texas for the fifth time.
The course which was historically a par 72 will for the third year play to a par 71 measuring just on 7400 yards. The change, which was made is the 12th hole was shortened by 40yds or so and now plays as a par 4 instead of a par 5.
The greens are bentgrass and the fairways are zoyzia.
The course was designed by the late Tom Weiskopf. For comparison purposes it is worth noting that Weiskopf headed up the redesign of TPC Scottsdale home of the Waste Management Phoenix Open in 2015 and with both courses holding the TPC moniker and playing to a par 71 that event is certainly worth looking at for comparison purposes.
In addition Weiskopf was responsible for the recent North Course redesign at Torrey Pines.
The course features wider than average fairways and if the wind doesn’t blow low scoring with a hot putter is the order of the day.
The current course record is 61 and is held by Ryan Palmer.
The course, which opened in 2004 also hosted the equivalent of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012 with these events won by Matt Bettencourt and Justin Bolli respectively. While we can’t of course read too much at all in to those events it is noticeable that there were plenty of shorter, precision hitters on those final leaderboards including the likes of Colt Knost and Bryce Molder who both tied third in 2008.
HISTORY
With this being only the fifth year this course has hosted this event we have very little to go on and there is no real point in looking at the history of the event prior to last year.
Let’s though take a look at the top ten finishers here in 2021, 2022, 2023 & 2024.
2024
1 T Pendrith
2 B Kohles
3 A Noren
4 SH Kim, B H An, A Rai, M Wallace
8 J Knapp,
9 T Semikawa, R Campos, T Merritt, K Tway
2023
1 J Day
T2 SW Kim & A Eckroat
4 CT Pan
T5 S Scheffler, T Hatton, Z Dou
T8 A Scott, R Palmer, V Normann
2022
1 KH Lee
2 J Spieth
T3 H Matsuyama, S Munoz.
T5 J Thomas, X Schauffele, R Palmer
8 C Schwartzel
T9 P Malnati, J Hahn, D Riley.
2021
1 KH Lee
2 S Burns
T3 D Berger, P Kizzire, C Schwartzel, S Stallings.
T7 J Bramlett, T Merritt
T9 J Spieth, S Power, D Redman, J Vegas.
So what can we learn from these leaderboards? Well in general we have players with a mix of styles with KH Lee who owned this place in the first two years shooting -26 and -25 on top of his game in all areas.
In 2021 he ranked second from tee to green and in approach play for the week and ninth in putting while in 2022 he was fifth from tee to green, eighth in approach and 13th in putting.
That said it would appear as is often the case with a birdie fest strong tee to green play to give yourself plenty of looks rather than a hot putter is the key to success here. Runner up in 2021 Burns ranked first from tee to green for the week and sixth in approach play. Similarly 2022 runner up Spieth was again first from tee to green and fourth in approach play. Both though were more subdued on the greens with Spieth ranking 36th in this area last year.
Furthermore if we head down from 2022 only three of the top 11 home ranked in the top ten on the greens while eighth of them ranked in the top ten from tee to green.
Meanwhile a look at 2023s final leaderboard shows us that Jason Day ranked third in approach play while the two players tied for second Si Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat ranked sixth and 15th in approach play. All in all then strong iron play appears to be the key.
Finally a look at 2024 shows us that Pendrith produced an excellent all round performance ranking sixth off the tee, 14th in putting and third around the greens. It should be noted though that while his approach play was solid, it was his weakest link on the week ranking 38th, with the short game certainly key in his victory.
Looking at correlating courses and one observation I made coming in to the week in 2021 was a potential link between TPC Scottsdale and here, due to the fact that the course designer here Tom Weiskopf was responsible for the most recent redesign at Scottsdale. From that point of view the fact that prior to his maiden win here KH Lee had posted by far his best finish of 2021 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in January where he finished second was a huge tick to that link. Last year meanwhile two time TPC Scottsdale Champion Hideki Matsuyama finished third here while local Dallas man runner up Spieth has also performed well at the Arizona event.
In addition another event that has caught my eye from a correlation point of view is the 3M Open, which is also hosted by a low scoring TPC track, TPC Twin Cities. This event saw KH Lee notch a sixth place finish in 2021 while Charles Schwartzel, Jonny Vegas and James Hahn have both notched big finishes both here while last years champion here Taylor Pendrith was also fifth at the 3M Open last year.
Moving on to another Par 71 TPC layout and it is certainly striking that Pendrith has finished third and eighth the last two years at TPC Summerlin home of the Shriners. It is also worth noting that SH Kim who finished fourth here last year was also fourth at TPC Summerlin in 2023.
Finally I cant help but look at the 2023 leaderboard in particular here and see a connection to TPC Sawgrass with Day and SW Kim finishing first and second while other Players champions Scheffler and Scott along with 2023 Sawgrass runner up Hatton also finished in the top ten.
Another angle we should not ignore here of course is the Texas connection. Quite simply Texans/Texas based players play well in Texas. The 2023 top ten featured four players with Texas links, Spieth, Munoz, Palmer and Riley, while last years saw Texas based players Day & Kim first and second.
If we then move on to 2024 and we find two players with Texas connections, Ben Kohles and SH Kim who resides in the area. Finally on this front it could of course be a coincidence but it was interesting to note that with CJ taking up the sponsorship of the event last year two Koreans, Kim and Byeong Hun An posted top ten finishes. That said of course with KH Lee a previous back to back champion and Si Woo Kim runner up here in 2023 for whatever reason this is clearly a track the Korean contingent enjoy.
Finally the winning score here has sat between -23 to -26 each year with K H Lee posting the lowest total on his second win.
WEATHER FORECAST
The early part of the week shows the potential for a storm on Wednesday, however once we get in to the tournament days touch wood we look set for a dry week as a whole, although Sunday does show the potential for a storm later in the day.
Temperatures look set to sit in the low 80s all week.
The wind which is more often than not an issue in Texas also looks like it could be a factor with gusts of 20mph+ showing as a possibility across the week.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows;
SAM BURNS – 25/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
The name of Scottie Scheffler looms large at the top of the market and it would be no surprise whatsoever to see him bag his first win of the year in his home state. That said to side with someone at the prohibitive odds on offer you would need for them to have everything going for them and with the two times Master’s Champion still not firing fully this year I am happy to overlook him.
Instead then I will start our team by taking a chance that Sam Burns can build on his uptick in form at Hilton Head and produce a big week.
Burns started 2025 with a top ten at the Sentry and it looked like he would pick up where he left off in 2024, where he rounded out the year with five straight top 15 finishes.
After his eighth place at Kapalua though he lost his way posting nothing better than 22nd in his next nine starts and missing three cuts on the spin in the run up to Augusta.
After finishing down the field at the Masters though Sam produced a strong week at the Heritage to finish 13th with four solid sub 70 rounds. Interestingly his approach play, which has been his weak link this season, improved as the week progressed with his best day on this front coming on Sunday.
On to this week then and this will mark Sam’s third visit to TPC McKinney and with a runner up finish to his name here in 2021 we know the track suits his eye. In addition having finished sixth and third at TPC Scottsdale in 2023 and 2024 he has eye catching form on a correlating track.
As a five time tour winner we know Burns is more than capable of getting the job done and with it being two years now since his most recent win this looks an excellent chance for him to return to the winners enclosure.
SI WOO KIM – 28/1 – 2pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next cab off the rank this week is Si Woo Kim.
I will confess that I was watching Si Woo’s progress at Hilton Head two weeks ago with great trepidation, partly of course as he was battling our pick Justin Thomas, but mostly because I had been very close to siding with Si Woo that week myself.
Aside from Si Woo’s course history at Hilton Head and obvious Pete Dye links, my main reason for nearly going with him that week was that I just had a hunch he would be spurred in to action from having missed out on a Major Championship appearance for the first time at Augusta in a long while the previous week. Ultimately though it was the lack of any real form of note of late that put me off.
This week though of course despite his poor Sunday effort at the Heritage we now have some form to build on and I will take the view that even though he will have been hugely disappointed with his final round there, that he will see the week as a positive as a whole.
On to this week then and Si Woo arrives at a track that he has some great positive history at over the recent years having finished second in 2023 and 13th last year. Furthermore as he like many of the Koreans, bases himself in Texas we have that local angle in our favour as well as the Korean link, which often shows up here.
In addition from a correlating course form point of view Si Woo has two top ten finishes over recent years at the Shriners while he has notched 21st and 12th places finishes the last two years at the Phoenix Open.
Even allowing for his poor round four at Harbour Town all of Si Woo’s numbers for the week were positive and as a four time tour winner we know that despite that blip he is more than capable of closing things out.
I’ll trust then that Si Woo can push on again this week and having dusted off the contention rust at Hilton Head he can make a bold effort at win number five on tour here.
DAVIS RILEY - 80/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
I will confess despite the fact that he is a big friend of this column after his Charles Schwab win last year, as well as his recent big priced place at the Valspar, I had been all set to jump off the Davis Riley train this week. In the end though the odds on offer, which I still see as more than generous have lured me in again.
Riley as we know struggled hugely at the back end of 2024 and early in 2025, however he broke the malaise with a sixth place in Puerto Rico before backing this up with a seventh at the Valspar a couple of starts later when we were on at big odds.
Following this he produced a hugely creditable debut performance at Augusta finishing 21st.
On to this week then and having posted his maiden tour title in Texas and also residing there, he certainly comes in to the conversation whenever the Tour heads back to the Lone Star state.
I will confess that the lack of correlating course form and TPC course form in general was the thing that concerned me with Davis this week however he did finish ninth here on the first of two visits, so on balance I am happy to overlook that.
I will stick with Riley once more then as ultimately he is a class act who we know from Colonial last year can compete with the likes of Scheffler on his day and whom we know goes well in his adopted home state.
DANNY WALKER – 200/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
To wrap up this week I shall take a couple of big odds speculative plays starting with Danny Walker.
Walker really came in to our consciousness at The Players back in March, when having got in the event as alternate at the 11th hour he produced the week of his life in his home town to finish sixth.
A superb performance then and one, which allowing for the link I noted earlier in the preview to TPC Sawgrass puts him on the radar for this week. If you then add in his strong effort in the company of Ryan Gerard last week at TPC Louisiana and while it is early days of course in his tour career he is showing himself as someone who enjoys a TPC style course test.
While Danny’s effort at Sawgrass is undoubtedly the highlight of his career to date it is worth noting that he also notched a 13th place in Mexico earlier in the campaign all of which sees him currently comfortable in the Fedex standings at 60th place.
After his Sawgrass heroics perhaps understandably Walker struggled for a few weeks however he produced a solid 31st at the Corales before more than holding his own in Gerard’s company in Louisiana on their way to 12th.
A look at Walker’s stats this year show us that he is solid from tee to green ranking 44th in approach play so he should give himself plenty of looks here. If he can then bring the hot putter that he found on Sunday in the Zurich, usually the area he struggles in, he could just deliver a big week at big odds.
THOMAS ROSENMULLER – 300/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Finally to wrap thing up this week I will roll the dice on Thomas Rosenmuller.
The German national made his way on to the PGA Tour after a 2024 season which saw him post a win and five other top tens to finish ninth in the Korn Ferry Tour standings. Interestingly for this week his win came in a low scoring affair that saw him post a -25 total.
Not surprisingly Thomas has found life in the big league a lot tougher to date, however after making just three of his first nine cuts and posting nothing better than 59th he sprung in to life at the Corales to post a 12th place finish, meanwhile last week he posted nine birdies on his own ball in the second round alongside his partner Paul Peterson on the way to a solid finish.
On to this week then and Rosenmuller has found his game at the perfect time as this week is very much a home game for him. A native of Germany Thomas spent his college days at the University of North Texas in Denton only 40 minutes away from this weeks venue while he still resides in the area. One would hope then that he would have some familiarity with the track. In addition of course if the wind does pick with the time he has spent in Texas he should be more than comfortable.
Thomas started his 2024 on the Korn Ferry Tour really poorly missing six of his first seven cuts, however he came good with a top 20 in exactly the same corresponding week that this year he bagged his 12th at the Corales, after which he never looked back. I’ll take a chance then that Thomas can do something similar this year and produce a big performance on home turf.