Masters Tournament

The Masters

It was a profitable week for us at The Valero Texas Open all be it one that could have ended up a whole lot better.

Heading in to the final day our 80/1 pick Tom Hoge sat in third place four off the 54 hole leader Brian Harman, while our 250/1 play Henrik Norlander started the day one shot out of the frame. In the end though it was our third man in the hunt, 66/1 shot Ryan Gerard who produced a great final round in tough windy conditions to charge through the field before ultimately finishing second.

Hoge who struggled throughout the day ultimately finished in a log jam for fifth place to land a share of the each way pay out, but the sickener came from Norlander as a bogey on the par 5 18^th cost us a decent e/w pay out. Still, a profitable week like I said so I wont grumble too much.

The event was won by Harman who despite struggling like most in Sunday’s cold blustery conditions used all his experience to in the end close out a comfortable win. The victory was his first since his Open Championship triumph and no doubt he will now head up Magnolia Lane in great his spirits.

Talking of, which… we move on and what a week it promises to be as we head in to one of the most eagerly anticipated weeks of the year in the golfing calendar, Masters week.

As always the course will be looking resplendent with the Azaleas in full spring bloom and the greens perfectly manicured.

Regular PGA Tour golf watchers will also be able to relax and enjoy the golf knowing that no ‘patron’ will dare shout “Mashed Potato” or “Bababooey” as Bryson launches one off the 13^th tee [as if they do they will be very quickly evicted from the premises and never allowed to return].

In addition seasoned golf watchers can enjoy our annual game of ‘golf commentator cliché bingo’. Yes you know the ones, “No winner of the Par 3 competition has ever gone on to win the Masters”, “It’s like putting down a marble staircase” and of course the classic “The Masters doesn’t start till the back nine on Sunday”, [which needless to say is complete and utter nonsense!]

The spectacle and history we will be presented with this week are of course matched by the cast and storylines we have coming in.

Will Scottie Scheffler bag his third Green Jacket in four years? Will it finally, after his great start to the year, be time for Rory to put it all together at Augusta and complete the Grand Slam? Will Collin Morikawa turn his ultra consistent play in to another Major win? Can Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka or one of the other LIV golfers pounce, can Hovland build on his recent win and make a Major breakthrough or will the lightly raced Schauffele return to the form of last year?

The betting market as one would expect is dominated by Scottie and McIlroy who just edge Jon Rahm for second spot in the market. This duo are then followed by Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg and Rahm.

COURSE

Augusta National is a Par 72 which last year after some tinkering will officially played to 7510with 30yds or so added.

Three years ago changes were made to the 11^th and 15^th. Eleven had 15 yards added and some trees removed on the right hand side of the fairway. The aim was to stop players simply bailing out right off the tee while still having a decent look at their second shot in as errant tee shots became faced with additional faster running landing areas, with players blocked out for their second shot behind the trees further down the right hand side.

Meanwhile the par five 15^th hole had 20yds added meaning players have to put a bit more thought in to their second shots with regards to carrying the water.

2023 then saw some further changes made with the lengthening of the par five 13^th hole the change, which has garnered the most publicity. The tweak here has saw a new tee box installed adding a potential 35yds in length. The result being a bit like the change to the 15^th last year that the ‘risk v the reward’ of going for it in two will become greater.

Last year saw some further tweaks with the second hole having a new tee box added, which will add a further 10yds to the hole if used.

Finally this year we are likely to see some further changes, mostly more aesthetically due to some trees coming down in the hurricane last November, that said the official yardage heading in to this week is still noted as 7555yds.

The course was designed by Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones and was opened for play in 1933 before undergoing a redesign in 2008.

The greens are Bentgrass and tend to run at 13+ on the stimpmeter.

The key to success at Augusta is twofold. Firstly, you have to take advantage of the four Par 5’s, particularly, even with their greater length, the 13th and 15^th and secondly you have to minimise your mistakes on the par 4’s. Strong iron play is imperative to find the right spots on the greens.

Find yourself on the wrong level on green and it can be almost impossible to get down in two and make par.

HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the winners going back to 2013.

2024 Scottie Scheffler.

2023 Jon Rahm

2022 Scottie Scheffler

2021 Hideki Matsuyama

2020 Dustin Johnson [played in November conditions].

2019 Tiger Woods

2018 Patrick Reed

2017 Sergio Garcia

2016 Danny Willett

2015 Jordan Spieth

2014 Bubba Watson

2013 Adam Scott

So what does this tell us? Well interestingly and perhaps unexpectedly players right at the top of the market certainly haven’t had it all their own way over recent years with regards to winning with the champion tending to come from that ‘just below the leading pack’ section. For example 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama was a 45/1 chance while the 2018 winner Patrick Reed was a 50/1 shot, Sergio was a 40/1+ shot whilst the previous year Danny Willett was a 66-1 shot.

The 2019, 2020 and 2022 winners did somewhat buck this trend though as in 2019 Tiger Woods arrived here as a 16-1 shot while Dustin Johnson went off as a 9/1 November 2020 with Bryson Dechambeau marginally pipping him to favouritism. 2022 Champion Scheffler was of course a well fancied 16/1 shot, while Rahm was went off very well fancied at 9/1 in 2023 but none were favourites. Scheffler as his want did buck this trend last year though as he started the week a very warm favourite at 4/1.

Seven of the last ten winners had already won an event that calendar year with Matsuyama, Woods and Reed the most recent not to have done so.

As we know some experience of the course here is vital with no rookie having won here for many, many years with Fuzzy Zoeller way back in 1979 the most recent to manage that achievement.

There is precedent of winning here after just one start though with Willett, Spieth and Schwartzel all doing it over recent years.

It is important to note though that all of these three had finished inside the top 40 on their Masters debut the previous year, with Spieth finishing 2^nd the year before. In fact all of the last ten winners here had posted a previous top forty finish in the event.

As for recent form coming in to the event this historically can also be seen as quite key with eight of the last ten winners of April Masters having posted a top fifteen finish on Tour in March or April, while Dustin Johnson tee’d it up in November on the back of a run of 2 1 2 1 6 2! Surprisingly an exception to this was Jon Rahm last year who in his three starts in March had posted nothing better than 31^st. Of course though before cooling of in March the Spaniard had three wins and had not been outside of the top eight in his first seven starts of the year.

Meanwhile 2022 and 2024 winner Scheffler gave us the most obvious recent April example of how ‘hot form’ is key as he triumphed here in 2022 on the back of three wins and a seventh in his previous five starts, while last year he had two wins, a second, a third and a lowly tenth in his previous five starts!

Equally though it is not, if history is anything to go by, essential the winner arrives here in peak form and the 2021 champion Matsuyama who is the other odd one out alongside Rahm in this category with regards to a top 15 finish, had posted finishes of 30 42 MC 18 in his March and April tour starts. He did though finish 15^th at the WGC Concession in his previous start, which finished on the 28^th Feb!

Dustin Johnson also broke the hoodoo in 2020, which had seen none of the previous ten editions won by the player who had started the week as the number one ranked golfer in the world, a feat which Scheffler obviously matched last year.

From a statistical point of view there is no doubt that distance off the tee has become more important over recent years with no recognised short hitter having triumphed here since Zach Johnson memorably laid up on all the par fives. Alongside this no doubt the key to unlocking Augusta is strong approach play to find the right level on the greens. Equally while there is always a lot of focus in the media on the winner needing a great putting touch to handle the notoriously quick greens players known as poorer putters actually have a strong record here with Matsuyama, Garcia and indeed Scheffler to an extent examples of recent winners who struggle in this department.

Looking at the winning score over the past ten years and if we put to one side Johnson’s 20- under total in softer November conditions, a week, which also saw Cameron Smith become the first player in Masters History to shoot all four rounds in the 60s, the lowest winning total since 2010 was posted by Jordan Spieth in 2015 on 18- under, while the highest was from Danny Willett on 5- under in 2016.

As you can see this spans quite a range with somewhere around 9- under to 14- under tending to be the mark with Scheffler posting 11- under last year, Rahm posting 12- under in 2023 the previous two champions Matsuyama and Scheffler on his first win having both triumphed on a 10- under total.

WEATHER FORECAST

After a nasty start to the week, which calls for a heavy storm on Monday things look set to improve considerably from there with, at the time or writing only Friday showing the potential for any showers.

Hopefully then allowing for the sub air systems we will see some firmish conditions come the weekend.

Temperatures could be relatively chilly though as they will sit around the 70 degree mark most of the week.

Wind also looks like it could play its part over the first two days in particular with higher gusts of 20mph plus in the forecast.

As I always so though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

JON RAHM – 16/1 – 3pts e/w - 1/5 odds 1st 8

I will start off this week with Jon Rahm.

2024 was undeniably a disappointing year at the Majors for the Spaniard as he only cracked the top ten once at the Open.

Plying his trade now on LIV of course it is easy to see why some think the move away from the PGA Tour has blunted his competitive edge.

While I am sure most would agree that the level of competition the Spaniard faces on LIV is a step down from the PGA Tour, having not finished outside of the top ten in any LIV events last year on his way to bagging the individual title for 2024 it is fair to say he is still performing to a very high level though.

Jon has started his 2025 LIV campaign in similar fashion this year posting five straight top tens so far this year, the latest of which came in Miami last weekend.

Moving on to his history at Augusta and If you put to one side his 45^th place year, when he had the double distraction of being the defending champion and all the noise around his recent move to LIV, his record at the Masters is superb with five top tens in his previous six visits including the win. Basically his game is tailor made for the challenge.

There is certainly a precedent for players who have landed their maiden Green Jacket to then regain it two years later with Scheffler of course the latest to do this last year, while Bubba Watson achieved the same feat ten years or so back.

After his disappointing 2024 in the Majors, which also saw him have to skip the US Open through injury and I expect Rahm to be determined to get back on track in the marquee events this year and I can see him going very close to regaining his Green Jacket this week.

BROOKS KOEPKA –  33/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next up I cant resist Brooks Koepka at the odds.

Koepka’s record in the biggest of events is of course second to none over the recent years, with three PGA’s and two US Open’s to his name.

The one US Major, which has continued to elude him though is the Masters and it is no secret that he was hugely frustrated with himself by the way he surrendered to Rahm two years ago, in fact the annoyance with himself led to him landing his third PGA title on his next Major start when we were on board.

A runner up in 2023 in Augusta then Koepka now has three top sevens including two second places in his past six trips up Magnolia Lane in what is it is fare to say a feast or famine record here of late.

On to this year then and after posting two wins on the LIV circuit in 2024 Brooks has started 2025 with two top tens including a runner up in Singapore recently in four starts, so he is ticking over nicely, however his odds have drifted out to a far more appealing level as he comes in somewhat under the radar.

Looking at Koepka’s stats on LIV this year and his approach play has seen him gain shots in each of his past three starts while is ‘around the green’ game is also firing nicely.

Positive signs then for the key areas then and at the odds on offer I can’t ignore his credentials.

VIKTOR HOVLAND – 35/1 – 1.5pts e/w - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next up in I am going to take a chance on Viktor Hovland.

There are two ways to view Hovland’s odds coming in to this week, one is to take a stance that he was available at considerably bigger odds heading in to the Valspar a few weeks back and therefore, based on the view that there was an element of ‘smoke and mirrors’ in that win, that he cannot possibly be a viable bet this week at much shorter odds.

From my point of view I am going to take the second view though, which is, yes while Viktor’s odds have understandably contracted as a result of that win, the price on offer still more than factors in the thought that his game is not back to the levels we have seen before. After all if his form was anything like what we saw from him in 2023 his odds would be comparable to those of Morikawa, Aberg or Rahm.

If we accept the price is fair then we move on to the most crucial point of course then, which is, is his game at a level he can win this week?

The obvious answer of course is we don’t know yet, however what we do know, as we saw at the Valspar is that given a sniff he is at the level where he can stand up and hit the clutch shots to win and you can’t help but think he will take huge encouragement from the way he made birdie on 16 & 17 at the Copperhead course to reel in Thomas.

Looking at Hovland’s record at Augusta and in the Majors in general 2023 saw him ‘come of age’ in the biggest events, firstly bagging a seventh place at Augusta having sat third through 54 holes before pushing Brooks Koepka all the way at the PGA. He then added further top 20s at the US Open and Open Championship.

2024 as we know saw the Norwegian struggle however he was still to post a superb third place at the PGA Championship.

Ultimately we can’t be certain which Hovland will turn up this week, however there is no doubt in my mind that he is a Major champion in waiting and with, at his best a superb iron game tailor made for Augusta, at the odds on offer I am happy to take my chances.

PATRICK REED –  66/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

The honour of being my third LIV golfer selected this week goes to Patrick Reed.

Reed arrives in Augusta on the back of a seventh place finish at LIV Miami and a runner up finish prior to that on the Asian Tour in Macau so clearly his game is in decent shape.

That said for Reed to be of interest and potentially a factor at Augusta we don’t really need him to be in great form coming in as we know the track is one that he can always deliver on. A look at Patrick’s record since his win here in 2018 shows that he has bagged four more top 12 visits in six starts including a best of fourth. Add in the win then and an eighth in 2021 and there is no doubt you would have made a pretty penny backing Reed blindly here over the last seven years even if you didn’t take extended places.

To give the American credit unlike many of those on LIV he looks to tee it up when he can on the DP World Tour and finishes of eighth at Ras al Khaimah and tenth at the correlating Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year show he is still more than competitive wherever he tees it up. In addition having posted a win on the Saian Tour in Hong Kong last November we know he has pretty recent winning history in the tank.

In a Ryder Cup year Reed will be desperate to make an impact in the Majors and I can see him going well again here once more this week.

 BYEONG HUN AN – 100/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 12

Finally I shall round things off with a speculative play on Ben An at big odds.

An as has been well documented has failed to win to date on the PGA Tour and indeed until he triumphed on home soil on the DP World Tour at the back end of last year his only win since his break out triumph at Wentworth way back in 2015 was on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022.

Since returning from that stint on the Korn Ferry Tour at the back end of 2022 though Ben has become an ultra consistent performer on the PGA Tour posting four top tens including a runner up finish in 22/23 and then five top tens in 2024 including a play off defeat to the late Grayson Murray at the Sony Open to go with his win in Korea.

On to this year then and after a sluggish start, which saw Ben miss three of his first six cuts and manage nothing better than 22^nd, he found his form at Bay Hill to finish eighth before backing up a made cut at Sawgrass with another strong week at the Valspar to finish 16^th.

On to this week then and after missing the cut on his Masters debut several years ago Ben returned to Augusta last year after a three year hiatus to finish 16^th.

The fact that the Korean performed well here should be no big surprise as, as well as being one of the longer hitters on tour, like several other leading Asian players such as Matsuyama who of course is a former winner here, and Si Woo Kim, while known as a poor putter he possesses a string scrambling touch around the greens.

The youngest ever winner of the US Amateur at the time of his triumph back in 2009 Ben clearly has that extra bit if class to compete at the highest level and with his form picking up of late he could just be a factor this week at big odds.

DAVIS RILEY – 300/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 12

Finally I will wrap things up by taking a chance that an old friend of this column Davis Riley can thrive on his Masters debut.

As I am sure everyone reading this column knows no debutant has triumphed here since Fuzzy Zoeller back in the 70s and I don’t harbour any huge hopes that Riley will snap that streak.

That said of course with fancy odds available and extended each way terms we don’t need Riley to produce anything so miraculous, a solo 11^th at the odds will more than suffice.

On Riley’s potential this week then and as we all know he is very much a mercurial player who at his best can mix it with the best while at his worst can go on long runs of poor form looking all at sea. Of late however Riley has definitely turned a corner from the slump he had undoubtedly been in posting two top tens in his past four starts including a seventh at the Valspar when we were onboard at triple digits. Furthermore his iron play has improved considerably and his play around the greens has been superb, both as we know key for this week.

We are of course taking a risk here and it is quite possible we are looking at weekend off for Riley, however my hunch is he will take to Augusta and rise to the occasion and at the odds on offer I am happy to pay to find out.