Texas Children's Houston Open
Texas Children's Houston Open
Mar 24, 2025Texas Children’s Houston Open
It was a good week for us at the Valspar as we bagged a full each way return with our 175/1 pick Davis Riley.
Riley had hung around the lead all week and headed in to Sunday just two shots off the pace with legitimate win chances. Equally though with the leaderboard logjammed any mistakes were costly and after a double bogey seven at the 5th his chances of winning or even placing looked gone. Fair play to Riley though he knuckled down from there on playing the remaining holes in 3- under and snuck in to the frame for us in seventh place.
The tournament itself was won by Viktor Hovland who having seemingly battled his swing still for most of the week, produced some clutch shots down the stretch to pip Justin Thomas by a shot.
JT who had played superbly over the weekend after just making the cut on +1 looked all over the winner as he held a three shot lead on the back nine. Ultimately though a combination of his errors and two superb birdies on 16 & 17 were enough to turn another superb edition of the Valspar the Norwegians way.
So we move on in good spirits and the tour heads for Houston, Texas, for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. The event, which had historically held the pre Masters warm up slot since 2007 moved to a new place in the calendar in 2019 becoming part of the Fall series before in 2020, through the quirk of the Tour’s rescheduling around the Covid-19 pandemic, it found itself back in its historical pre Masters warm up slot. Finally then after the 2021 and 2022 events the tournament took a years hiatus before returning in 2024 to the spring schedule as the penultimate event prior to the Masters and it remains in that slot this year.
The tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston from 2006 [formerly known as Redstone Golf Club] up until 2020 when the event moved to Memorial Park Golf Course, a venue in downtown Houston, which had previously hosted the event from 1951-1963.
With several big names looking to give their games a final fine tune before heading up Magnolia Lane the organisers have struck gold as both Texan Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will be in town. The former heads up the market with this duo then followed by the in form Aaron Rai, Davis Thompson, Tony Finau and JJ Spaun.
COURSE
Memorial Park GC is a Par 70 measuring just over 7400yds, featuring five par 3s and three par fives.
The course was originally designed by John Bredemus who was also one of the original course architects involved in Colonial CC in Fort Worth, Texas, the home of the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The course first opened for play in 1936 and hosted the Houston Open from 1951 – 1963.
The greens are MiniVerde Bermuda.
A municipal parkland course, which at approximately $38 to play must make it one, if not the, most accessible PGA Tour courses to the general public, Memorial Park underwent a significant redesign under the tutelage of Tom Doak in the lead up to hosting this event.
This was Doak’s first involvement in the design/redesign of a PGA Tour course, however he is the man responsible for The Renaissance GC in Scotland, which has hosted the Scottish Open on the European Tour over recent years and this along with comments Doak made in the build up to his work at Memorial Park are certainly worth considering.
Doak’s aim in essence was to create a course that players would have to think their way around…Here are a few of his comments whilst he was undertaking the redesign.
None of the players I talked to thought it needed to be any longer," Doak said. "The bottom line is you can't defeat tour pros with length. The holes that are more interesting to them are the holes that are kind of in between, and they don't know what to do. A 500-yard par-4 is just a driver, 8-iron anyway. You kind of play into their hands. You think you're trying to challenge the long hitter, but what you're really doing is giving everybody but the long hitters no chance of competing."
In relation to the greens. “We can't make them really small but we can make the targets feel small, either long and skinny on a par 5 or the par 4s angling left to right so if you drive it one side you might be able to come down the length of the green, but if you come in from the other side, you've got to stop it pretty fast.
"We want them to feel fairly traditional," Doak added. "We don't want it to be a space-agey thing.".
Alongside Doak in the project the ‘Player Consultant’ on hand was Brooks Koepka and prior to the first playing here in 2020 Koepka had this to say.
“I think it's a very tough golf course,” with the rough being the way it is, you've got to put the ball in the fairway and then it's a second-shot golf course. You really have to putt a good strike on the ball, being able to spin it, be good with your long irons. There's quite a few long holes. But at the same time, it makes it quite fun if you do miss the green because you have so many options. You could putt it, you could bump-and-run it, you could flop it. It really gives the player a lot of options where I feel like you're never quite out of it.”
The latter comment from Koepka is certainly worth dwelling on as with the winning scores being 13- under and 10- under the past two years. Things did get a bit easier for Finau in 2022 when he triumphed on 16- under however things were trickier again last year as shown by Jaeger’s winning total of 12- under. It is clear then that this track is no push over.
HISTORY
When looking at this tournament historically as it was held in the pre Masters warm up slot the main consideration was always the ‘Augusta factor’ and invariably the winner would be someone from the second tier of players who was looking for a confidence boost leading in to the years first major, or indeed someone who needed the win to make it to Augusta.
In 2019 of course this went out of the window, however in 2020 the pre Masters ‘warm up factor’ was back in play and could clearly be seen in the way Dustin Johnson was ‘taken down’ by maiden Carlos Ortiz before DJ went on to bag the Green Jacket the following week. This comment is not in anyway meant to belittle the achievement of Ortiz who played superbly to win the trophy, however clearly as a Texas based player looking to win on Tour for the first time he was far more motivated for that triumph than Johnson who had one eye firmly fixed on the following week.
Since 2021 the ‘Augusta Factor’ is no longer in theory relevant, however I would still say that Scheffler had one eye on his build up to the Masters last year when here he lost out to Jaeger.
I have listed below the winners of the event going back to 2012 however we need to very much bear in mind that only the last four editions have been played at this venue.
2024 Stephan Jaeger*
2022 Tony Finau*
2021 Jason Kokrak*
2020 Carlos Ortiz*
2019 Lanto Griffin
2018 Ian Poulter
2017 Russell Henley
2016 Jim Herman
2015 JB Holmes
2014 M Jones
2013 DA Points
2012 H Mahan
*Played at Memorial Park.
Let’s take a closer look then at the final top ten from 2020, 2021, 2022 & 2024, which were played here.
2024
1 S Jaeger
T2 S Scheffler, T Detry, T Finau, T Moore, A Tosti
T7 M Greyserman, B Horschel, D Skinns, A Rai.
2022
1 T Finau
2 T Alexander
3 B Taylor
T4 A Noren, T Mullinax, A Smalley
T7 A Rai, A Hadwin.
T9 J Rose, S Jaeger, S Scheffler, K Mitchell, G Woodland, J Dahmen, J Bramlett.
2021
1 J Kokrak -10
T2 K Tway & S Scheffler – 8
4 K Hickok -7
T5 M Trainer & J Dahmen -6.
T7 R Streb, S Burns, R Henley & C Tringale.
2020
1 C Ortiz -13
T2 D Johnson & H Masuyama -11
4 T Gooch -9
T5 B Koepka & S Straka -8
T7 M Hughes, T Hatton, S Burns & J Day.
With the ‘pre masters’ caveat in play in 2020 and with only four years to go on there is probably not too much we can read in to these leaderboards, however for what it is worth the two subsequent winners at Augusta finished joint runner up in the 2020 outing, while the 2021 & 2024 runner up here Scheffler now has two Green Jacket’s of course, giving some merit to the view that the ‘run off’ areas around the greens would show some similarity to Augusta. Ultimately though of course these players are simply class acts who can perform anywhere.
Perhaps it is more pertinent then to take a closer look at the leaderboards in relation to correlating course form with one obvious point to note being that the 2021 winner, Kokrak had triumphed at Colonial CC in the Charles Schwab earlier in the year and with both events being held in Texas and having the same original course designer there is an obvious link.
In addition as I always say in Texas events it is key to look at the success of players with Lone Star State connections here.
This point is highlighted by the fact that three of the previous ten winners of the event Mahan, Jones and 2020 champion Ortiz all based themselves in Texas. Furthermore the man who was heartbreakingly [for those of us who had backed him!] beaten by Ian Poulter in the 2018 Play off, Beau Hossler is another Texas resident and college attendee.
Meanwhile two of the top four home here in 2021 Scheffler and Hickok are Texas guys through and through.
While aside from Scheffler there were no Texas guys prominent on the 2022 leaderboard if we then look at last years runners up we have Texas native Taylor Moore along with Scheffler again.
Away from Texas one other obvious course correlation that has developed is with last weeks event the Valspar and with both tracks featuring five par 3s this is perhaps not surprising.
Looking at the leaderboards over the four editions here and 2021 champion Kokrak has a strong Valspar record and seventh home Sam Burns is a two time champion there. In 2022 we can see both former Valspar Champion and nearly man from the 2024 Valspar Keith Mitchell in the top ten, while last year the 2023 Valspar Champion Taylor Moore was runner up here.
From the point of view of previous course form here prior to winning putting the maiden winner here, Ortiz, to one side, Kokrak was making his debut here when he triumphed while Finau had finished fourth and missed the cut on his two previous visits. Only Jaeger then with a ninth the year before had given us any clues on that front.
Finally if we look at Ortiz stats from 2020 he ranked fifth from tee to green and fifth in putting however his accuracy off the tee was not good, ranking only 76th. Meanwhile runners up Johnson and Matsuyama also ranked second and sixth respectively from tee to green for the week. Kokrak’s stats shows us that he ranked second in approach play and third in putting while again lacking accuracy off the tee. One of the runners up Tway meanwhile ranked second on the greens and third off the tee.
Finau then bossed the field in pretty much all areas ranking second off the tee, ninth in approach, second in putting and first both in accuracy and GIR. Finally Jaeger triumphed largely due to a hot short game week ranking third in putting and ninth around the greens, while a solid 38th off the tee, 37th in approach and 32nd in driving accuracy.
A mixed picture all in all then but one thing that would be clear as a whole is that accuracy off the tee is not key here but solid approach play and strong work on the greens is.
WEATHER FORECAST
As is often the case when the tour heads to Texas the weeks forecast does not look fantastic and with Friday, Saturday and Sunday all showing the potential for a storm we will be lucky to get through without any interruptions.
Temperatures look set around the 80 degrees mark
The wind often a key factor in Texas looks set to play its part as well with gusts of 20mph+ a possibility on all four days.
As we know though this will quite possibly change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows;
TONY FINAU – 33/1 - 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 32nd
I have to be honest I am not someone who turns to Tony Finau too often as more often than not he will flatter to deceive. That said he is now a six time tour winner, which even if he were to never add to it, is an impressive career CV by any standards and with one of those wins coming here he will always be on the radar in this event.
Looking at that win here in 2022 and as noted earlier Tony bossed the field in pretty much all areas that week ranking second off the tee, ninth in approach, second in putting and first both in accuracy and GIR. He then went on to finish second here last year on his defence.
Furthermore that runner up finish last year came on the back of a missed cut at the Valspar, a down the field performance at Sawgrass and nothing better than sixth all year, so clearly he loves the track and can step up his game on it even if his form is patchy coming in.
Talking of current form and looking at his odds which see him sat alongside JJ Spaun and bigger than Aaron Rai in the market allowing for Tony’s far superior pedigree, you would be forgiven for thinking he is struggling hugely at the moment.
In fact though he posted a fifth place at Riviera just three starts ago on the back of a 13th at Pebble Beach.
Granted he missed the cut last time out at Sawgrass however Tony is one of those players who is yet to even begin to work Sawgrass out so I am not going to get hung up on that. Instead then I’ll happily take a chance at the odds that he can move up through the gears once more at one of his favourite venues and contend for tour title number seven.
MAX GREYSERMAN – 55/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Next cab off the rank for me this week is Max Greyserman.
Greyserman debuted full time on the PGA Tour last year and after struggling on the West Coast he started to step things up around this time of year posting his first top ten in this event.
Ass we know from there on in Max never looked back making it all the way in to the seasons ending top 50.
So far In 2025 Greyserman has been ticking along really nicely performing far better on the West Coast than last year. When the tour headed East he then notched an 11th at the Cognizant when we were onboard and a solid 22nd in the Signature Event at Bay Hill. Granted he then missed the cut on debut at Sawgrass but he certainly isn’t the first person to struggle at TPC first time out so I’m not overly concerned about that.
On to this week then and as we know Max’s greatest strength is on the greens so it was no surprise to see him play well here last year on a track we that we know a strong putting touch is needed.
Furthermore one of Max’s best performances on tour to date came at the ZOZO last year where he was runner up and with that being another course with five par fives that gives more encouragement.
In an event where the biggest of names may well have an eye on their Masters prep this looks a perfect opportunity for Max to bag himself his maiden tour title.
DAVIS RILEY – 80/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 52nd
It will come as little surprise to regular readers that I am sticking this week with our nearly man from last week, Davis Riley.
Riley showed us last week that his recent uptick in form seems to be very much gaining momentum and after hovering around the lead all four days he bagged us a full place at 175/1 when finishing solo seventh. Superb stuff from Davis then and you have to think that he has well and truly turned a corner from the horrid run of form he was on at the back end of last year and the beginning of this.
A winner of course for us last year at huge odds at the Charles Schwab Challenge we have an immediate link to this weeks event and with the 28yr old also basing himself in the Lone Star State you would expect him to be comfortable here.
Furthermore from a course correlation point of view we need look no further than his seventh at the Valspar last week or indeed his runner up finish there in 2022.
Riley showed us when victorious at Colonial last year that when he is on song he has the game and the temperament to mix it with biggest of names as he saw of Scottie Scheffler that week. I have no doubt then that, particularly with Scheffler and McIlroy having one eye on their final Augusta preparations, that Davis would not wilt if he finds himself in the mix with the games two biggest names come Sunday.
Looking at his history here and Riley has three solid top 30 finishes in three visits including a best of 14th last year, when he was in awful form on arrival, so he is clearly comfortable here. Meanwhile with his short game around the greens really firing last week along with his approach play, if he can just find an uptick with his usually reliable putter, the one area, which let him down last week he really does have all the components to succeed here.
Granted the fancy prices from last week are gone, however with Riley’s all round game, which lends itself to performing better on tougher tests, clearly now back, I am more than happy to stick with him.
MACKENZIE HUGHES 80/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 10th
Next up this week for me is Mackenzie Hughes.
Hughes had a really solid 2024 posting six top ten finishes and all that was missing was win number three for his CV. As a result though while he didn’t quite crack the top 50 with three of those top tens coming in the Fall he did more than enough to finish in the ‘next ten’ and earn his place in to the first two signature events of this year.
Starting 2025 no doubt with great optimism then, unfortunately however things haven’t really gone to plan to date and Mackenzie has posted only one top 25 so far this year at Bay Hill recently.
After missing the cut at Sawgrass Hughes headed to Tampa and started poorly again with an opening 75. Over the weekend though the Canadian really caught the eye ranking sixth in approach play on Saturday and third off the tee on Sunday. In addition on Sunday he ranked first in both Driving Accuracy and good old fashioned GIR.
As we know at his best Hughes’ strengths are on and around the greens, therefore it is not a surprise that his record here shows he has performed strongly on all four starts posting finishes of 7 29 16 & 14 last year. Furthermore we can take encouragement in Hughes’s third place at the correlating Valspar last year.
A slow start then to 2025 for Hughes, however as a proven two time tour winner who likes this track he makes plenty of appeal to build on his strong weekend at the Copperhead and produce a big performance here.
QUADE CUMMINS – 200/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Finally this week I will have a speculative play on Quade Cummins.
Cummins garnered full status on the PGA Tour for the first time this season courtesy of a 2024 Korn Ferry campaign, which saw him post six top tens including a runner up finish in the Bahamas.
Now seven starts in to his rookie season while Quade is yet to produce anything really eye catching he has performed solidly enough so far making four cuts, posting top 40 finishes in all of them, including a best of 16th in Puerto Rico.
If we look at Cummins’ stats for the season to date we will see that his strength so far has been very much on the greens as he currently ranks 25th in putting and this ties in with his 2024 Korn Ferry ranking of second with the putter. With a strong game on the greens needed this week then this bodes well.
In addition on a track with five par 3s in play we can also take the positives from Quade’s strong ranking in the par three averages.
A native of Oklahoma Cummins should certainly be at home in the anticipated windy conditions this week while there are many examples over the years of Oklahomans performing strongly in neighbouring Texas. Indeed Cummins himself performed strongly in Texas last year when finishing fifth at the Veritex Bank championship.
Quade missed the cut at the Valspar last week however he hit the ball nicely on day one ranking 13th in approach before struggling from the wrong side of the draw on Friday. I’ll take a risk here then that he can step it up on a track that should play to his strengths in The Lone Star state.