The Valspar Championship

The Valspar Championship

It was a frustrating week for us at The Players Championship as despite four of our five picks making the weekend and our headline selection Collin Morikawa being right in the mix heading in to day three we drew a blank.

Morikawa’s demise came as a result of a stone cold putter over the final 36 holes while our other pick who was in the mix heading in to Sunday, Sepp Straka, struggled on the final day.

The event in the end was won by Rory McIlroy who following a lengthy weather delay on Sunday triumphed in a Monday play off over JJ Spaun.

McIlroy really should have put the event to bed on Sunday as he held a three shot lead over Spaun through 12 holes. A combination though of some great play from Spaun down the stretch and some sloppy play from Rory saw Spaun in the end have a 30ft putt for glory on the 72^nd hole, which agonisingly came up a roll short of dropping. With his chance gone then there was an air of inevitability about things when they returned for the three hole play off on Monday and once JJ dunked his tee shot in the water on 17 it was basically all over.

So after another scintillating week at Sawgrass the Tour heads to Tampa for the final leg of the Florida Swing, The Valspar Championship.

The tournament is played at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor near Tampa.

The event, which was cancelled in 2020 due to the pandemic, had a regular slot over the past decade as part of the March Florida Swing, however in 2021 it moved to a May slot as part of a rejigged schedule. In 2022 however it returned to its traditional slot in March.

In my opinion this is one of the best courses the tour visits all year so it was great to see that Valspar recently extended their deal to sponsor the event through to 2030.

Three players Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood vie for favouritism in the market with this trio then followed by Sepp Straka, Sam Burns, Corey Conners and Shane Lowry in what is a strong looking field.

COURSE

The Copperhead Course is no push over and offers a tough examination of a players game.

It is dissimilar to Florida courses as a whole as it is a tight driving course with tree lined fairways, plenty of elevation and dog-legs.

It has in the past been likened by players to having more of a feel of a ‘Carolinas’ course than Florida.

The course is a par 71 playing at just 7300yds. The course is unusual in that it has four par 5s as per normal but five par 3s.

The greens are tiff eagle Bermuda.

The signature area of the course is the finishing 3 holes which are known as ‘ The Snake Pit’.

This stretch is made up of two par 4s and the par 3 17^th.

HISTORY

Of all the events on the PGA Tour this is one of the toughest to get a handle on from the type of player who wins or indeed the winning score to expect.

Let’s firstly take a look at the winners here going back to 2013;

2024 P Malnati

2023 T Moore

2022 S Burns

2021 S Burns

2019 P Casey

2018 P Casey    

2017 A Hadwin 

2016 C Schwartzel

2015 J Spieth

2014 J Senden

2013 K Streelman

As we can see there have been wins for major champions Spieth, Schwartzel and Jim Furyk, while Gary Woodland won here in 2011 and[Retief Goosen won here in 2009, there have wins for renowned ball strikers like double champion Paul Casey , John Senden & Kevin Streelman, which was followed the next year by a win for Luke Donald, and maiden PGA Tour wins for Adam Hadwin, Kevin Streelman and Taylor Moore last year.

Sam Burns, another player known for his tee to green strengths bagged his maiden tour title here in 2021 before matching Paul Casey’s feat by defending in 2022. Finally to bring us up to date last year we saw a shock win and a second tour title for Peter Malnati.

Furthermore a look at some of those who have found the frame over the recent years including Chandler Phillips, Ryan Moore, Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Nesmith and Justin Thomas, again show us players known for their ball striking strength flourish here.

All in all then strong tee to green and approach play in particular appears to be what is needed here with  Casey having ranked seventh in SGATTG for both of his two victorious years and first and sixth from tee to green across the two years, while the previous two winners Hadwin and Schwartzel were both ranked in the top three for the week in approach play.

Sam Burns was also undoubtedly solid from tee to green ranking fifth in this department in 2021 when he triumphed and 14^th in approach play however he was also strong on the greens ranking third with the putter. Basically it was a great all round performance from the young star.

I would though treat the 2021 edition with slight caution though as the move to may made the course play slightly easier than normal, something reflected in Burns’ winning score of 17- under.

That said of course Burns backed this up last year and again it was his approach play that shone as he ranked third in this area for the week.

In 2024 when scoring was tougher again Moore ranked second from tee to green and fifth in Approach play. Last year meanwhile Malnati who is mostly known for his prowess on the greens aligned his usual strong flat stick performance, for which he ranked third, with a strong long game week ranking fourth off the tee and 20^th in approach play.

Looking more at the role of honour over the recent years in relation to course form will also leave one slightly confused as well as the following list of the last ten winners shows here and their previous course form shows.

P Malnati MC MC MC 60 MC MC MC

T Moore  MC

S Burns     1 30 12

S Burns     30 12

P Casey     1 MC MC 37

P Casey     MC MC 37

A Hadwin  MC 71

C Schwartzel MC

J Spieth 20 7

J Senden M/C 38 15 28

K Streelman 10 MC MC

As you can see prior to Casey defending the trophy in 2019 and Burns doing the same in 2022 only two of these winners had notched a previous top 10 here with last years Champion Malnati winning on the back of a record of six missed cuts and a 60^th in seven visits!

Whether coincidence or not there have been five international winners in the last ten years so this may well be a point to note.

Perhaps the biggest clue where to look for the winner can be found in the recent form of the past winners coming in to the event.

Again taking the last ten winners as a sample, Woodland & Donald had both finished 6^th in their previous starts in Florida, Spieth had finished 17^th & 7^th in his two previous starts, Hadwin had not missed a cut all season and had come close to winning at the Career Builder, Schwartzel had won twice on the European Tour that year already and had finished 17^th at Doral the week before. As for Casey he had two top 12s in in his previous three starts in 2018 including 12^th the week before at the WGC Mexico and in 2019 he had two top three’s in his previous four starts including a third in Mexico. Burns had finished fourth in the Zurich pairs event the week before triumphing here in 2021 while in 2022 he had produced two solid efforts in Florida finishing ninth and 26^th at the API and Players respectively.

2023 winner Moore had made five of his previous six cuts including three top 15 finishes while the previous week he had posted a solid 35^th at The Players including a Saturday 65. Finally while he had a horrendous course history prior to his win last year Malnati arrived here on the back of ninth place in his penultimate start to his win and a 14^th two starts prior.

The clues were less obvious from Streelman and Senden, although Senden had only missed one cut all season and Streelman did have a top 10 to his name earlier in the year.

All in all though it would seem what you should look for at Copperhead is a player who is in control of all parts of his game coming in to the event.

In other words Copperhead being a venue that tests all components of your game is not somewhere where you find your form. You need to be in it when you get there.

Finally since the event moved to a March slot in 2007 there have been winning scores in March ranging from as high as -4 when Sean O’Hair won in 2008 to -15 when Gary Woodland won in 2011.

Jordan Spieth won with -10 in 2015, Charl Schwartzel with -7 in 2016,  Adam Hadwin with -14 in 2017, whilst it was -8 and -10 for Paul Casey over his two wins. Sam Burns has produced far lower winning totals of 17- under on both occasions, however things were tougher again for Moore who triumphed in 2023 on 10- under and for Malnati last year who posted 12- under.

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for a dry sunny week in Tampa with temperatures set to sit around the low to mid to high 70s for most of the week.

Wind though looks like it could be an issue through the week and particularly on Thursday with gusts of 30mph + a possibility that day.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

MICHAEL KIM – 40/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8. - FINISHED 28th

I shall start things off this week with Michael Kim.

As mentioned earlier good current form is very much a key driver to success on the Copperhead Course and until Kim missed the cut last week at TPC Sawgrass his form had been just about as strong as anyone’s of late.

Prior to his weekend off at Sawgrass Kim had posted five straight top 13 finishes in five straight weeks. A run, which was bookended by a second place finish in Phoenix and a fourth at Bay Hill.

Quite some run and if we then take a look at Michael’s stats we will see he is gaining strokes in all key departments highlighted with an eye catching ranking of ninth from tee to green.

As I say the run came to an end at Sawgrass as Kim missed the cut posting rounds of 75 69. Clearly then the damage was done on Thursday however I am not going to let one bad round put me off. In fact to be honest allowing for the fact that this will be his seventh week on the spin a weekend off, particularly as he missed out on the tricky conditions on Saturday, may well help our cause.

On to this week then and it must be said that Kim’s track record at the Copperhead Course is very underwhelming with nothing better than 33^rd in seven visits, however that best finish did come last year when he was in poor form so we can take positives from that. In addition as noted earlier previous course form has mostly counted for nothing here over the years. Instead then I shall take big encouragement from his sixth place finish at Colonial in 2023, which correlates hugely here.

Ultimately Kim is in the form of his life at the moment and in a week where all parts of the game are tested that tends to count for a lot and I am keen to have him on side.

TAYLOR MOORE –  45/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up I am going to return for third year running here to Taylor Moore.

I sided with Moore in 2023 as he had produced some good solid numbers and consistent finishes on the Florida swing up to that point and he certainly delivered in spades.

Last year we were back on board with Taylor as he arrived once more in solid form and even though he didn’t bring us a return there was plenty to like about the way he went about attempting to defend his trophy before finishing twelfth.

On to this year then and after missing the cut in the his opening start of the year at the Sony Moore arrives here once again as a model of consistency having made every cut since with a best of seventh at the Amex and ninth in Phoenix.

Looking at Taylor’s stats for the season and it is his approach play and putting that have held him back to date. Last week though there was plenty to like in his approach work as he ranked 17^th in that department. Granted to the putter didn’t really fire still however returning to greens where he has performed strongly on before this week will hopefully help to get an uptick in that area.

It wont be lost on Moore that both Casey and Burns have gone back to back here over recent years and with similar blustery conditions to, which he thrived on in 2023 in the forecast I am happy to chance him to bag a second title here this week.

MAX McGREEVEY–  90/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 54th

Sticking with my theme of players in solid form at the moment another player to catch my eye is Max McGreevey.

McGreevey returned to the PGA Tour this year having lost his card after a poor 22/23 campaign and after a sluggish start he has started to find some momentum over recent weeks.

Looking at his season to date in more detail and after three missed cuts and a WD in his first four starts he has now posted three top 25s in his last four outings included a fourth at the Cognizant and a solid 20^th last week at Sawgrass.

The fact that Max has turned a corner of late shouldn’t be too much of a surprise as he has always been at his best on the East Coast and or/on wind effected courses where his ball striking can come to the fore as shown by his history of top ten finishes in Puerto Rico, Bermuda and at the Wyndham.

Max regained his tour card in spectacular style last year posting two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour while also adding a win to his CV in Japan at the Dunlop Phoenix at the back end of the year. Clearly then he has worked out how to win, which bodes well if he can get in the hunt.

Add in the fact that he ranked third off the tee and tenth in approach play at Sawgrass last week, and that as a native of Oklahoma we know he is more than comfortable in the wind and there is a great deal to like about him at the odds this week.

KEVIN ROY – 125/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up I will turn to Kevin Roy.

Roy returned to the PGA Tour this year for a second stint after a disappointing go first time around in 22/23.

After regaining his card at the first time of asking though courtesy of five top 10s and two runner up finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, Roy has so far made a far better fist of things, missing only one cut in five starts to date.

The last month has seen Kevin really step things up with 17^th place in Mexico and a sixth in Puerto Rico where he opened up with a 62.

Roy bases himself in Lakewood Ranch, Florida these days less than an hour away from this weeks venue and as a result of this he was given a sponsors exemption in to last years event for his lone start of the year on the PGA Tour and he took full advantage to post a superb 12^th place finish.

The fact that Kevin performed well here is no huge surprise as his strengths lie from tee to green so this is certainly be a track that should suit him.

Kevin got a weekend off last week having missed the cut at Sawgrass, something I am not going to get too hung up on particularly as he posted a solid 70 on Friday. Instead then he got to watch fellow Florida based players Danny Walker & Bud Cauley perform superbly and it may just be that he can take some inspiration from their performances and produce a big week here.

DAVIS RILEY –  175/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 7th

There is no doubt that Davis Riley is turning in to something of an enigma on the PGA Tour. When he first came out on tour fully in 21/22 he showed huge promise posting six top tens and finishing 36^th in the Fedex Cup and most shrewd judges felt it was only a matter of time until the smooth swinging Riley notched his first win.

22/23 saw him due just that however it came alongside Nick Hardy in the Zurich pairs event and aside from that win he managed only one other top ten all season at Bay Hill.

On to 2024 and it was more of the same early season however Davis caught the eye enough in a couple of starts leading in to the Charles Schwab Challenge where he had played well before, leading to us getting on board at 200/1 and the rest as they say was history.

Seeing off Scottie Scheffler that week on Sunday to bag the trophy in style, what that showed us if we didn’t know it already, is that when Davis is on his game he really is world class.

Since that win however things have gone spectacularly wrong for Riley again an he was unable to manage anything better than 38^th at the Wyndham for the rest of 2024. He then started this year with a WD and four missed cuts in his first five events.

At the Cognizant however he made his first cut of the year and he then followed that up with sixth place in Puerto Rico where he held the 36 hole lead. Meanwhile last week at TPC he played solidly again on his way to 38^th particularly catching they eye with his approach play on Friday and Saturday.

On to this week then and Riley returns to the venue where he first really caught our eye in 2022 when he lost out to Sam Burns in a play off. He then went on to finish 19^th here the following year.

A bit like the week leading in to his win at Colonial then we know Riley likes the track and there has been a distinctive uptick in form. I don’t need a second invitation to take the hint then and Riley is a must for me this week.

STEVEN FISK –  250/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 28th

Finally I will roll the dice at big odds on rookie Steven Fisk.

Fisk has found his way on to the PGA Tour for the first time this year courtesy of a one win season on the Korn Ferry and so far he is making a decent fist of things with a best of fourth place last time out in Puerto Rico to go with a 17^th place in Mexico.

Hailing from Georgia you would expect Fisk to perform at a higher level on the East Coast than the west so while he missed the cut at the Cognizant he really should be relishing the test ahead this week on a course that should play to his strengths.

Looking at those strengths in greater detail and he currently sits fourth off the tee on tour. In addition and while his ranking this year doesn’t show the strength of his iron play yet, last season on the Korn Ferry he lead the old fashioned GIR standings.

In a week where one or two big names could be a bit jaded after the back to back challenge of Bay Hill and a tough Sawgrass Fisk could just build on his Puerto Rico effort and bag a place at big odds.