The Players Championship

The Players Championship

It was a poor week for us at Bay Hill as after a flying start from Wyndham Clark the 2023 US Open Champion faded badly over the weekend and in an event that was ultimately won by Russel Henley we were never at the races come Sunday.

Over in Puerto Rico however we struck gold as rookie Karl Vilips produced a superb performance to land the trophy at 80/1.

Having held a one shot lead heading in to round four the SunDay Red ambassador belied the fact that he was making only his fourth PGA Tour start to withstand tremendous pressure from Rasmus Neergard-Petersen, who made six consecutive birdies on the back nine to take a one shot lead. After bogeying the short 12^th though Vilips bounced back with three straight birdies to regain control before parring in to close out in fine style.

A magnificent performance and we can add Vilips’ name to the list of growing young superstars on the PGA Tour.

So we move on in great spirits and the Tour now heads to Ponte Vedre Beach, Jacksonville and to what is arguably my favourite week of the year, The Players Championship.

TPC Sawgrass opened in 1980 and the stadium course has been host to the Players Championship since 1982.

I’ve been lucky enough to go to the Players Championship on several occasions in the past but unfortunately won’t be there this year. Hopefully I’ll be back there next year though!

As is always the case the field is a stellar one with the market headed up by double defending champion Scottie Scheffler who arrives in search of the ‘threepeat’. Scheffler is then followed in the market by Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg and Collin Morikawa.

COURSE

The course is a Par 72 and measures just under 7200 yards.

TPC Sawgrass is the jewel in the crown of the Pete Dye’s designs used on the PGA Tour. Other Dye designs used regularly on Tour include Hilton Head the home of the RBC Heritage, TPC River Highlands home of the Travelers and the Stadium Course used for two rounds of the Amex event played in the Californian desert.

After the 2016 edition the greens were changed from Miniverde Bermuda  to TiffEagle Bermuda.

In 2020 there was a further change to the greens as they were over seeded with Velvet Bent/Poa Trivialis.

After the 2016 edition a course redesign took place, which as well as seeing the greens being re planted saw the 5^th, 6^th & 12^th holes undergo changes.

The most noticeable of these was the changes made on the 12^th which saw it become a driveable par 4.

One hole that wasn’t changed though was the Par 3 17^th which is one of the most iconic holes in world golf.

Measuring 137 yards this hole really should be no more than a pitch and putt hole for the players and if it wasn’t surrounded by water it surely would be.

However when the players arrive on the tee to the sight of the big blue lake and the huge galleries, their minds start to play all sorts of tricks on them and even on the calmest of days you’ll see balls going in the water.

When the wind does blow it becomes a real monster [as does the whole course] and all sorts of havoc occurs!

The Par 3 17^th is part of a fantastic overall finish to the course with eagles being possible on the Par 5 16^th, huge numbers being possible on the 17^th, and finally the 18^th, the toughest hole on the course to finish.

With this finish no lead is too big on Sunday afternoon coming in to this stretch and you can see big comebacks [Rickie of course] and real disasters [remember Sean O’Hair.]

HISTORY

As mentioned above the event has been held at the Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass since 1982.

For the majority of this time the event was held in mid to late March, however in 2007 the event date was changed to the second weekend in May.

The main reasons behind this at the time were twofold, firstly to give the PGA Tour’s flagship event more of its own identity, rather than it being seen as a warm up to the Masters and secondly to move the event to a statistically dryer time of year so that they could get the course playing firmer and faster as the design had intended.

Moving on ten years though and a decision was made as part of a reshuffle to the PGA Tour Calendar to revert TPC back to its historical slot in March from last year.

So let’s take a look at the last winners since 2011;

2024 Scottie Scheffler

2023 Scottie Scheffler

2022 Cameron Smith

2021 Justin Thomas

2019 Rory McIlroy

2018 Webb Simpson

2017 Si Woo Kim

2016 Jason Day

2015 Rickie Fowler

2014 Martin Kaymer

2013 Tiger Woods

2012 Matt Kuchar

2011 KJ Choi

Over the years of the event it is fair to say that a very clear pattern had emerged of an identikit winner and if I had been writing this preview in the lead up to the 2015 edition I would have been pretty bullish of the credentials of player we should be looking for.

To outline this let’s look at the ten winners from 2005 to 2014. These were as follows;

F Funk, S Ames, P Mickelson, S Garcia, H Stenson, T Clark, KJ Choi, M Kuchar, T Woods & M Kaymer.

So what do these players have in common? Not a lot you’d think on first glance however in relation to Sawgrass form it is quite striking.

Firstly they had all played in the event on multiple occasions building up a bank of course experience.

Secondly they had all notched previous high finishes in the event with KJ Choi’s 16^th place being the worst ‘previous high finish’ any of these players had. All bar Kaymer, Kuchar & KJ Choi had a previous top 10.

Thirdly all bar Ames had made the cut the previous year at the event.

However, since 2014 these stats have been diluted slightly in that both the 2015 & 2016 winners Fowler & Day had missed the cut the previous year, however both had made five starts in the event and both had a previous top 10 finish.

2017 winner Si Woo Kim then won the event on only his second start, something unheard of over the previous decade plus. Although it should be noted that he did finish 23^rd on his debut the previous year so we can at least say he had taken to the course.

In 2018 however the formula pretty much returned with Webb Simpson’s victory.

Webb had, like many winners before him, made multiple starts in the event and he had posted his best finishes of 15^th and 16^th in the event over his previous four visits, the latter of, which had come the year before in 2017.

On to 2019, and the trophy was bagged by Rory McIlroy. Rory’s win fitted this profile on two fronts in that he had made numerous previous starts in the event posting three consecutive top tens from 2013 through to 2015. He had however missed the cut here in 2018 on his previous visit to winning.

With the 2020 event cancelled due to the Covid pandemic we move on to 2021 and the winner Justin Thomas ticked all of the ‘formula’ boxes in relation to course form in that he had made five previous starts including a best of third place and had made the cut here the previous year posting a solid 35^th place, all of, which as longer term readers will remember, lead to us being onboard!

Next we have the 2022 winner Cameron Smith who was making his fifth start here. Smith had produced his best finish here the previous year when finishing 17^th so again we have the same pattern of a bank of course history with one strong finish.

Finally, to bring us up to date when first winning in 2023 Scottie Scheffler bucked the trend completely. Obviously as one of the world’s best players at the time [and now undoubtedly the best!], Scheffler is more than capable of bucking trends at any time, however with just two starts at Sawgrass with finishes of MC 55 to his name prior to 2023 he wasn’t on my radar coming in to that week.  Last year when defending though we of course had the course form at least in the history banks!

One other thing that is of huge significance in identifying the winner over the years is recent form coming in with the winners having a really solid outing in their previous start to their victory here; To expand this further here is a table showing the finishing positions of the winners again going back to 2011 in their start prior to lifting the trophy here.

2024 Scottie Scheffler 1

2023 Scottie Scheffler 4

2022 Cameron Smith 33

2021 Justin Thomas    15

2019 Rory McIlroy      3

2018 Webb Simpson  21

2017 Si Woo Kim        22

2016 Jason Day           5

2015 Rickie Fowler      9

2014 Martin Kaymer   18

2013 Tiger Woods       4

2012 Matt Kuchar       13

2011 KJ Choi                3

As you can see all had made the cut and the worst finish of any of the winners noted in their previous start was 33^rd by Cameron Smith at the Genesis in 2022. Smith had though already won once in the calendar year at the Sentry just three starts prior, so clearly confidence was still on a high.

There is also one other thing that connects some of the historical winners and that’s as follows….

As we know TPC is sometimes referred to as the ‘fifth major’ and it has certainly caught my eye over the years that the winners have often been players who were/are pedigree players on the world stage, had played Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup, and/or were considered potential major winners/had come close in majors on occasions, but at the time of winning TPC they hadn’t quite been able to get over the line [or indeed still haven’t.]

This list going back to 2010 includes Tim Clark, KJ Choi, Garcia, Stenson, Kuchar, Fowler and prior of course to his win at St Andrews in the summer, Smith.

Finally, there is also something else I have noted about Sawgrass in that it seems to often players return to the winners enclosure after a lean period with regards to victories.

To clarify if we again look at the last ten winners prior to Scheffler we find the following;

Only five of these winners, Smith, Thomas, Si Woo Kim in 2017, Jason Day in 2016 and Tiger in 2013 had won on tour over the previous twelve months with Smith, Tiger and Day having won earlier that calendar year.

Of the remainder McIlroy was posting his first win in just over 12 months since his 2018 API triumph, 2018 winner Simpson was winless since 2014, 2015 winner Fowler hadn’t won since the 2012 Wells Fargo, Kaymer and Kuchar were winless in approximately eighteen months, KJ Choi in over three years. In addition if we go back a further year 2010 champion Tim Clark was tasting victory for the first time on the PGA Tour and over a year after he bagged the Australian Open.

So in summary what [or who] are we looking for statically is for an experienced player with on average 5 starts at Sawgrass, a previous top 20 finish, [preferably top 10] who is a big time player with Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup experience who is in strong form coming in but who has struggled to post a victory of late.

Finally, over the last ten years the winning score has ranged from -20 [Scottie Scheffler last year] to -10 [Si Woo Kim in 2017] with the average being around -13.

WEATHER FORECAST

After a stormy start to the week fingers crossed we look set for calmer conditions once Thursday comes around. Temperatures look set to sit in the low to mid 80s for the week. With the warm temperatures comes the chance of storms with unfortunately Sunday at the time of writing showing the possibility for an interruption.

Wind, which is regularly a factor here looks like it will play its part to a certain extent with gusts increasing as the week progresses and 20mph+ in the forecast.

As I always so though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

COLLIN MORIKAWA – 14/1 – 3pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 10th

I will start this week with Collin Morikawa.

Morikawa will head to Jacksonville no doubt smarting at how he let slip a winning position at Bay Hill on Sunday when he appeared to all but have two hands on the trophy.

Winless on tour since the ZOZO at the back end of 2023 I am sure that loss will have stung, however there is no denying Morikawa is playing some great golf at the moment and it may just be he has timed his run to perfection for this week.

A look at Collin’s stats at Bay Hill last week show us that he ranked fourth off the tee and fifth in approach play so clearly his trademark long game is firing again. This is something rubber stamped by his current season rankings of second from tee to green and tenth in approach play and it was only a slightly iffy putter in Orlando, for which he ranked 36^th, which cost him.

Looking now at Collin’s record at TPC Sawgrass this will mark his fifth start in the event with a best of 13^th place on his resume to date. Nothing spectacular then but a course profile, which very much fits former winners here.

With two runner up finishes in his four starts this year to go with two further top 20s, Morikawa is undoubtedly knocking at the door at the moment and he looks perfectly primed to lift the trophy this week.

SEPP STRAKA –  50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 14th

While admittedly the layers aren’t giving much away, I can’t possibly ignore the credentials of Sepp Straka this week, particularly after he landed the spoils for us at the American Express in January, an event of course, which features Pete Dye’s Stadium Course, very much a mirror to TPC Sawgrass.

The reason Sepp appealed to us so much at that event was that as well as having played well there before, he has a tremendous record at TPC courses all round, which tend to reward the same ball striking skill sets he possesses.

A winner at TPC Deere Run the Austrian has also just missed out on a victory at TPC Southwind. Add in his ninth place and 16^th place finishes in just four starts here and it is right there in front of us to see.

Looking then at his form as a whole this season and Sepp has posted five further top fifteen finishes, with his fifth place at Bay Hill last week, where he had never played well before, particularly impressive.

Straka is clearly a man on a mission this year to book his spot on the plane in Luke Donald’s squad for Bethpage and barring injury or a huge drop in form he can probably start packing his bag and I can see him taking another huge step forward on that quest this week.

SUNGJAE IM – 50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 61st

Next up and while admittedly not an obvious selection I am going to follow my hunches this week with Sungjae Im.

I mentioned earlier that this is arguably my favourite week of the year, and while this is largely down to how much I enjoy the course and the fact I have been there on several occasions, it is also due to the fact that I have very much stuck with an identikit profile for the winner over the years to good success, and Im ticks every box I am looking for.

Firstly we have a player who is making his sixth start in the event with a best of sixth two years ago, a perfect winners course profile.

Next we have the fact that Sungjae has knocked on the door in Majors on several occasions while also having the pedigree of being a Presidents Cup player. Basically, that second tier player that so many winners have been here over the years.

 Lastly on the profile front Im arrives here looking to end a long winless drought, again as so many winners have before.

With regards to his form this year the Korean has been patchy having started strongly with two top four finishes in his first three starts before losing his way somewhat. Last week at Bay Hill however he performed solidly to finish 19^th closing out his Sunday with a back nine of 31. He should head North up on the I95 then in good spirits.

There is no doubt Im has underperformed compared to his potential and a big week is long overdue at this level. I’ll follow my hunch then and chance him to deliver it here.

DOUG GHIM –  100/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED MC

Next up I’ll chance Pete Dye specialist Doug Ghim.

A player with a fine amateur record Ghim is one of many who boast strong credentials on that front but who are yet to push on in the big league.

Over recent years Ghim has been a player who would regularly post top 25 finishes but never really looked like winning, however this all changed last year when he produced a superb performance on another TPC layout at the Shriners, before just coming up short in second. The fact that Doug closed that day with a 65 pushing eventual winner JT Poston all the way though was a big step forward.

Ghim has stated 2025 relatively quietly and until a couple of weeks ago at the Cognizant his best effort was 21^st at the American Express, on a Pete Dye layout of course. At the Cognizant though he stepped it up a level, posting a day two 63 before finishing 11^th.

Eye catching form coming in then but what makes him an obvious pick for this week is his record at this event and indeed that aforementioned record on Pete Dye tracks in general.

Firstly of course we have his standout sixth here three years ago, while it shouldn’t be forgotten that the previous year he was right in the hunt heading in to Sunday before struggling and falling away to 29^th. Meanwhile Doug was at it again last year finishing 16^th here. Add in his fifth at the Amex in 2021, the year they played three rounds on the Dye design due to Covid and it’s signposted in neon lights for us.

Currently ranked sixth on tour in approach and ninth from tee to green Doug should be licking his chops heading in to this week on a ball strikers paradise then, and I’ll take him to produce another great run here.

JOEL DAHMEN –  175/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8. - FINISHED 54th 

Finally, if we are to have a ‘shock winner’ this week then Joel Dahmen ticks a lot of boxes as being the man to provide.

Firstly at 12^th in approach play this season and solid off the tee Joel has the strong tee to green game that flourishes here.

After his well-documented heroics at the RSM Classic last Fall to hang on to his card Dahmen has started 2025 solidly posting two top tens in his past four starts at The Farmers and in Mexico, while last time out he played nicely again finishing 32^nd at the Honda.

A look at Joel’s history at TPC Sawgrass shows us that this will be his sixth visit here and with best finishes of 12^th and 11^th last year he has exactly the sort of course profile we are looking for. Furthermore, if we look at Joel’s wider track record on Pete Dye courses we can take encouragement from finishes of 12^th and 16^th at Hilton Head.

As Dahmen has said himself this year he is playing with renewed confidence in 2025 following his ‘great escape’ at the end of 2024 and I am happy to round off this week by chancing him to produce a big performance here.