Cognizant Classic In The Palm Beaches

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

It was about as painful and end to the week as it could get for us in Mexico as one of our picks, Aldrich Potgieter lost out in a play off to unheralded journeyman Brian Campbell.

Potgieter still just 20yrs old, had showcased his undoubted phenomenal talent over the first two days with a Friday 61 giving him a four shot lead heading in to the weekend.

For most of Saturday he then nursed that lead round, however a stuttering finish to day three certainly set the alarm bells ringing with the lead reduced to one heading in to Sunday.

What then followed on day four was on one hand absorbing to watch and on the other ‘hide behind the sofa’ stuff as the youngster clearly battled nerves all through the day particularly with his short game.

Somehow though despite shooting a level par closing 71 Potgieter found himself in a playoff with Campbell as the chasing pack had all also faltered down the stretch.

After both players parred the par 5 18^th on the first play off hole what then ensued will unfortunately never be erased from the memory banks. Campbell stood up and carved his tee shot out of bounds in to the trees right only for it to ricochet back in to play allowing him to lay up to 70yds and hit a wedge to three feet for birdie. With Aldrich then failing to get up and down from the green side bunker he had found in two Campbell’s fairytale story was complete.

If truth be told Potgieter was very lucky to be in the play off in the first place having struggled throughout the day, still though for him to ultimately be beaten in that fashion was a tough one to swallow.

So with the Mexico Open in the books the tour now heads to the East Coast to start a four week run in Florida.

With the exception of 2021 when the schedule was re jigged the event formally known as the Honda Classic has traditionally heralded the beginning of the Florida Swing.

In 2022 though after Honda one of, if not the, longest serving sponsors on the PGA Tour chose to end its relationship with the event after 41yrs, the future of the tournament, which had become a victim of its spot in the schedule in the lead up to ‘designated events’ and The Players was at this point very much in doubt.

Fortunately though information technology company Cognizant have stepped forward with a long term deal to sponsor the event through to 2030 so the future of the tournament is secured.

The event was first played in 1972 and was hosted at several different locations until moving to Palm Beach Gardens in 2006.

After one year in 2006 at the Country Club at Mirasol it then moved to PGA National in 2007 and has remained there ever since.

In the same year the tournament's main beneficiary became the Nicklaus Children's Health Care Foundation, chaired by Barbara Nicklaus, wife of Jack Nicklaus, and this continues to be the case.

With most big names swerving the event the market is headed up by Shane Lory and Russell Henley who vie for favouritism. This duo are then followed by Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka and Daniel Berger.

COURSE

PGA National was originally a Tom & George Fazio design, which has subsequently undergone redesigns from Jack Nicklaus both in 1990 & 2013.

The other Nicklaus designs played regularly on tour are Muirfield village home of the Memorial and also last years ‘one off’ Workday event and the Nicklaus Tournament Course used as part of the course rotation for the Amex. In addition the Concession Club home of the 2021 WGC is a Nicklaus design.

The event has been played at PGA National since 2007.

The course, one of the tougher nuts to crack all year on the PGA Tour has played to a par 70 of just over 7100 yards. This year however the par four 10^th has been lengthened by 20 yards and will now play as a par 5, giving us a par 71 and potentially lower scoring.

The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.

The ‘signature section’ of the course is The Bear Trap, which is holes 15-17. These holes combined create the toughest part of the course and indeed arguable the toughest 3 hole stretch on regular PGA Tour events year in year out.

These holes are made up of 2 par 3’s, the 15^th & 17^th and the par 4 16^th. If you can get through these three holes in level par you are certainly picking up shots on the field.

As noted earlier PGA National is a tough test with solid ball striking being the order of the day. In addition and without stating the obvious, keeping your ball out of the numerous water hazards which populate the course is a key ingredient to success here!

HISTORY

PGA National is undoubtedly a challenging test for the players. Only five times in the last ten years has the winning score been double digits under par. Firstly in 2017 when Rickie Fowler came home in -12 for a 4 shot victory, in 2021 when Matt Jones triumphed by five on a -12 total in 2022 when Sepp Straka edged out Shane Lowry with a 10- under total and then over the last two years, firstly when Chris Kirk and Eric Cole both posted 14- under before Kirk triumphed in the play off and then in 2024 when Austin Eckroat triumphed on 17- under.

The other winning scores over the past 6yrs have been -8, -9, -6, -8, -9 and -5 from Sungjae Im in 2020.

Just how difficult the course plays is dictated by how hard the wind blows and of course if the track has been ‘softened up’ by any rain.

So let’s take a look at the past 10 winners of the event;

2024 Austin Eckroat

2023 Chris Kirk

2022 Sepp Straka

2021 Matt Jones

2020 Sungjae Im

2019 Keith Mitchell

2018  Justin Thomas

2017  Rickie Fowler

2016  Adam Scott

2015  Padraig Harrington

2014  Russell Henley

As we can see the role of honour over the past 10yrs has been a bit of a mixed bag. 2016 through to 2017 saw wins for three of the games big names in the shape Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott and there also a comeback win for Padraig Harrington. In addition just over ten years ago Rory McIlroy took home the trophy in 2012.

In amongst this though there were maiden PGA tour successes for Straka, Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell and most recently Austin Eckroat, alongside wins for Matt Jones & Russell Henley, while 2015 saw Padraig Harrington roll back the years.

Im is now of course established as one of the top performers in the game while Eckroat has added a second tour title to his cabinet and looks destined for the top echelons of the game, so of these winners you could only really class Jones, Thompson, Henley and Mitchell as more leftfield.

When looking at the list of past winners and players who have performed well at this event there is an obvious cross reference to the British Open.

Rory and Harrington are past Open Champions as of course is Ernie Els who won here in 2008. Scott came as close you can do without winning it and Rickie has taken like a duck to water to links golf and remains an Open Champion in waiting.

This reference also goes back beyond the event being played at PGA National with Todd Hamilton winning the Honda Classic before shocking the golfing world to lift the Claret Jug.

One other point of note on this roll of honour is that only six of the past ten winners hailed from the US with three of the past five champions all hailing from outside of the US.

From the point of view of form coming in to the week and historical course form Thomas, Fowler and Scott were as telegraphed as a winner could be having finished top ten in their previous start and all having a previous top 12 finish in the event. Henley meanwhile had been in a poor run of form prior to his win here in 2014 having missed three of his five full field event cuts in the calendar year with nothing better than 51^st. He had though finished 13^th here the year before.

Straka had been on a solid run of form making all of his previous cuts in 2022 and posting two top 16 finishes in his previous four starts. Furthermore he had finished 33^rd and 27^th here the previous two years so the signs were there. Kirk meanwhile had finished seventh here the year before and prior to missing the cut in Phoenix had posted back to back third place finishes in the Sony and the Amex so the clues were clearly there.

Beyond that though the picture gets very murky as Harrington and Mitchell had no form coming in to speak of, and no positive history on the course, although of course Harrington had the obvious British Open link, while 2020 winner Im arrived here on the back of nothing better than 29^th place in his previous four starts and a 51^st place finish on his debut in the event the previous year. 2021 winner Jones had posted a fourth here many years ago but had done nothing of note in the event over the past ten years and after a solid West Coast swing had played poorly in his first two starts in Florida. As a two time champion of his home Open though his pedigree in tough windy conditions was not in doubt and he certainly fitted the profile of international winners.

Finally 2024 champion Eckroat had missed the cut on his previous visit here and although he had made four of his five cuts in the season prior to his win he had managed nothing better than 25^th.

One thing that it has historically paid dividends to take note of here is players arriving at the event who would benefit from the tour moving across to the East Coast and therefore switching from the Poa Annua greens on to Bermuda Greens. This was particularly pertinent in 2023 with Kirk, the previous year with Straka and in 2019 and 2020 with both Im and Mitchell, all players with East Coast links and who had clearly indicated before that they were far more comfortable on Bermuda.

Finally in terms of correlating courses there appears to be a clear link with another track, which features plenty of water hazards, TPC Twin Cities, which hosts the 3M Open. Michael Thompson has triumphed at both courses, last years 3M winner Lee Hodges has a strong record here, while others to have performed well at TPC Twin Cities over recent years include Honda Champions Mitchell and Im as well as Emiliano Grillo.  Meanwhile this link was rubber stamped again last year as Jhonattan Vegas who had historically performed well in both events bagged the trophy at the 3M Open.

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for a week of temperatures in the mid to high 70s with a chance of a shower or two along the way. Hopefully though the stormier weather predicted for earlier in the week will not be a factor come tournament days though.

Wind as is normally the case here will be a factor with gusts around 20mph+ showing as a possibility through all four days.

As I always so though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

ANDREW NOVAK – 50/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

First up for me this week is Andrew Novak.

Novak is quietly arguably one of the best improved players on tour over the past 12 months with 2024 seeing him post five top ten finishes including one here. Furthermore with his best finish to date on tour coming in Bermuda in the Fall where he was runner up he is now seriously knocking on the door of his maiden tour win.

A native of North Carolina Andrew posted his one win to date by the Coast in Florida at the Lecom Classic in 2020.

Add that to the fact that his best efforts on the PGA Tour to date have come at the Mayakoba, Puerto Rico, Corales, in Mexico at the RSM, Bermuda, the Sony and at Pebble Beach and we clearly have a player who is at his best on a wind effected coastal test.

This is something Andrew has very much rubber stamped twice already this year by finishing third and 13^th in his two visits to Torrey Pines.

Having finished ninth here last year Novak has clearly got to grips with PGA National now and this looks a perfect venue for him to land his first tour win.

MAX GREYSERMAN – 45/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Working on the theme of players who are clearly more comfortable on the East Coast than the West one name that leaps out to me this week is that of Max Greyserman.

Greyserman debuted full time on the PGA Tour last year and it is fair to say his opening few months were fairly underwhelming. He struggled on the West Coast to get starts and on the four occasions he had teed it up prior to arriving here he had missed two cuts, withdrawn in Mexico and finished 56^th at the Amex.

After finishing 47^th in this event though he started to gain some momentum, finishing 15^th, 33^rd and seventh in his next three starts, and the rest as we say was history as he made it all the way in to the seasons ending top 50.

The fact that Max managed this feat was largely down to back to back runner up finishes at the end of July/beginning of August and notably for this week one of those came at the correlating 3M Open. He then also went on to finish fourth in Mexico in the Fall in an event, which was won by last years champion here Eckroat, giving us another nice link.

In to 2025 then and while not pulling up any trees Greyserman has been ticking along really nicely posting a best of seventh at the Amex. Meanwhile last time out at the Genesis at Torrey Pines on the way to 24^th he ranked tenth off the tee for the week and second in putting.

Greyserman was certainly on most peoples list at the start of this year as a likely maiden winner in 2025 and now that we have reached the East Coast I think the Duke grad has every chance of stepping up here an landing that win.

RYAN GERARD – 80/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8

Ryan Gerard first came to prominence in this event two years ago when he produced a fairytale week here to finish fourth, having got in to the tournament as a Monday qualifier.

Gerard then morphed that finish in to an 11^th place in Puerto Rico the week after however despite also finishing fifth at the Barracuda later in the year a string of missed cuts along the way as well meant he was unable to turn the Special Temporary Membership he got in to a full tour card for 2024.

Not to be daunted though Ryan returned to the Korn Ferry Tour for 2024 and with a win and four top tens on the year he comfortably did enough to bag his full playing rights for this year.

In to 2025 then and Gerard has made an excellent start to life in the big league making all four cuts while posting top 20 finishes in his last two starts.

A native of North Carolina Ryan now returns to the East Coast and specifically to where it all really began for him two years ago. You would have to think then that he will have really positive vibes heading in to this week.

A look at Gerard’s stats for the season show he is gaining shots in all key areas so it is not surprising to see him producing some really solid results.

A player who clearly has something a ‘bit extra’ about him Gerard is someone I want to keep onside this year and particularly here this week.

ADAM SVENSSON –  125/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next cab off the rank is Adam Svensson

Adam has started 2025 in a fairly ho-hum fashion with three made cuts in five starts with his best effort to date coming in his first outing when 30^th in the Sony.

Nothing to get overly excited about then however Svensson now tee’s it up in his adopted home state and this is where things get really interesting for the week ahead.

To expand further and Svensson spent his college days in Miami, so just down the coast from this venue, and he has shown he is very much at home on wind effected coastal tracks notably when winning on the Korn ferry Tour in the Bahamas and when bagging his lone PGA Tour triumph to date at the RSM.

More pertinently for this week though prior to making waves on the Korn Ferry Tour Adam’s finest hour after turning pro came on this very course when he won the Web.com Q School by seven shots in 2015.

Adam played this event way back in 2019 and I actually chanced him that week at huge odds. Unfortunately on that occasion he finished down the pack in 59^th but a 64 on day two was a reminder that this course should really suit his game.

We were then onboard again in 2022 when he finished in that graveyard spot of all good each way bets, ninth.

The last couple of years Svensson hasn’t performed so well here and it may just be that having on each occasion had a big week in a Signature event in his previous outing at Riviera he was perhaps putting too much expectation on himself to perform here. This time around he returns somewhat under the radar and hopefully that will play in to his hands.

Somewhat speculative I know but at three figure odds and with his affinity to this track I am happy to take my chances.

THRISTON LAWRENCE – 250/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8

In an event that has time and again over the years given us a link to the Open Championship one player who catches my eye at juicy odds is Thriston Lawrence.

Lawrence landed on the PGA Tour this year courtesy of procuring one of the PGA Tour cards offered via the DP World Tour.

 It is fair to say though that 2025 has started quietly for Thriston as a missed cut in Dubai was followed by missed cuts on his first two PGA Tour starts at the Farmers and in Phoenix.

Last week though Lawrence made the weekend for the first time this year in Mexico and while there was nothing to get particularly excited about in his 59^th place finish hopefully he can build on the week and particularly Friday’s 65, as we go forward.

On to this week then and while we have no course form here to back it up the fact that Lawrence was fourth in last years Open Championship, producing a superb weekend in tough conditions, really piques our interest. Add in two top three finishes in the Irish Open and a Lytham Trophy from his amateur days and as you would expect for a South African he is clearly very comfortable in the wind.

As mentioned earlier 2025 has started slowly for Lawrence however he is a proven winner with four titles and plenty of big finishes to his name on the DP World Tour and as his Open performance showed last year if the mood takes him he has the belief and the game to mix it with the big guns.

With fellow countryman Kruyswijk winning in Kenya last week then and Potgieter coming agonisingly close to landing the South African double, perhaps Thriston on a course, which will hopefully suit him, can get his PGA Tour campaign fully of and running with a big performance at big odds.

CAMILLO VILLEGAS – 500/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8

Finally at the whopping odds on offer I really have to roll the dice on Camillo Villegas.

After the well documented personal tragedy of the death of his daughter Villegas returned to the winners enclosure in Bermuda in 2023, a victory, which everyone connected to the game was delighted to see.

Following on from that success perhaps not unsurprisingly 2024 was a tough year for Camillo on the course as he failed to post anything better than his 35^th place at Augusta all year.

With one year remaining on his exemption then and now 43yrs old it would have been no surprise if Villegas had slipped quietly in to the background before becoming a bit part player.

Instead though the early signs in 2025 have been far more promising as Camillo has made two of his four cuts while posting his first top 10 on tour since the win in Bermuda, at the American Express.

Looking at Camillo’s numbers for the season to date and his approach play has been solid ranking 29^th in that department while he also ranks 30^th from tee to green.

Furthermore last time out in Phoenix where he posted four rounds of par or better on his way to 44^th he ranked 23^rd in approach play.

On to this week then and Villegas as we know is somewhat of an East Coast specialist having attended college in Florida and granted while it came 15yrs ago, he is of course a past champion in this event. From that point of view then he should be relishing a return to the Sunshine State on the back of his eye catching start to the year.

Camillo certainly seems to be focused for the year ahead and the challenge of keeping his card and while it is pure speculation I know, I can’t help but wonder if the form of fellow countryman Nico Echavarria at the back end of last year and indeed the start of this, has inspired him to rededicate himself this year.

Another win here for Camillo might seem a bit of a stretch, however as we saw last week with Brian Campbell nothing is off the table. In addition of course at the odds on offer if Villegas can sneak a place that would be a great result in itself.