Mexico Open

Mexico Open

It was a frustrating week for us at the Genesis Invitational and very much a case of ‘what might have been’.

Of our four selections Gary Woodland missed the cut and Taylor Pendrith never got going. That left Kevin Yu and Rory McIlroy. Yu played nicely but a lukewarm putter stopped him threatening the frame, while McIlroy’s stone cold putter over the weekend put pay to his chances.

To add to our frustrations the event in the end was won by Ludvig Aberg, who we had been all in on at this very venue just three weeks ago when he was struck down with the flu, while Patrick Rodgers, a regular in these columns produced an excellent performance to finish third. In a parallel universe then both of those players could easily have been in our team, however both [with a huge dollop of hindsight of course] were foolishly left out.

Still though, you can’t get it right every week and with our season still ticking along nicely I am not going to dwell on it too much.

So we move on and this week the PGA Tour heads across the border to Mexico for the fourth playing of the revitalised Mexico Open on the Tour.

The Mexico Open was first held in 1944 and in recent years has been part of the PGA Tour of Latino America. In 2022 however after the demise of the WGC Mexico the event became part of the full PGA Tour schedule.

The event is hosted by Grupo Salinas who were the hosts for the former WGC event and is held at the Vidanta Vallarta resort in Vallarta.

Despite its position in the schedule the field is solid enough with the market headed up by Akhshay Bhatia.

Behind we have Rasmus Hojgaard, Sam Stevens, Patrick Rodgers and Kurt Kitayama.

COURSE

The course is a par 71 measuring 7456 yards.

The course features four par fives, three of which are on the back nine, a driveable par four seventh hole measuring just under 300yds and five par threes.

The course is a Greg Norman design so it is worth looking at results at the other two Norman courses used regularly on tour, TPC San Antonio, host of the recent Valero Texas Open and perhaps more significantly El Cameleon host of the Mayakoba also held in Mexico.

The greens are paspalum. Other courses to feature Paspalum greens on Tour are the aforementioned El Cameleon, along with the host courses for the Corales Puntacana and Puerto Rico events. In addition the now defunct CIMB Classic used to feature Paspalum greens as does Kiawah Island the host of the 2021 PGA Championship.

Based on the first couple of years here length of the tee appears to be an advantage with accuracy off the tee not important as the fairways are wide and the rough not significant.

Wind however can be a factor particularly in the afternoon.

Water is also fully in play on six or seven holes.

Unlike the former WGC Mexico event altitude is not a factor this week as the course is at sea level.

HISTORY

With the event only being in its fourth year since its resurrection as a PGA Tour event on  this course we have little to go on. Let’s look at the top ten from the first three years though.

2024

1 J Knapp

2 S Valimaki

T3 S Jaeger, J Lower, CT Pan.

T6 R McIntyre, P Rodgers.

T8 A Novak, C Kim, D Ghim, C Young, E Van Rooyen.

2023

1 T Finau

T J Rahm

3 B Wu

4 A Bhatia

T5 E Grillo, A Smotherman, E Cole

T8 C Champ, B Taylor.

T10 A Tosti, B Hossler, P Rodgers, J Bramlett, H Hall.

2022

1 Jon Rahm

T2 T Finau, K Kitayama, B Wu, D Riley

T6 C Champ, A Wise, A Smalley, D Lipsky

10 P Rodgers.

So what does this tell us? Well not a lot could be gleaned from the first two editions to be honest as reverse one – two finishes for Rahm and Finau, by far the biggest class acts who have teed it up here doesn’t really tell us anything. Last year though with a win for Jake Knapp we do have a pattern emerging that the bigger hitters seem to have an advantage here.

If we then add in top tens for Champ one of the biggest hitters on tour, along with Kitayama, Wise, Smalley, Rodgers and Tosti, over the first three years this theory garners more strength. That said last years top ten featured CT Pan and Doug Ghim so we can’t rule out success for shorter hitters here.

Rahm has made a habit of hoovering up in events where he is an overwhelming short priced jolly so it was no surprise he won here in 2022, while Finau’s win came in the midst of a solid 2023 and like Rahm he had started to show a propensity for striking in these lesser events with his back to back wins in the 3M and Rocket Mortgage in 2022. In addition of course he had shown a liking for here when finishing runner up to Rahm in 2022.

Knapp meanwhile had finished third two starts previous to winning here at the Farmers so he had certainly given us a big hint that a win could be coming.

Looking at his stats for the week of his win Rahm ranked second off the tee and third from tee to green, while in 2022 Finau ranked first from tee to green. Conversely that year Finau ranked 60^th on the greens while Rahm was only 18^th in this department

Roll on 12 months and Finau fared much better on the greens ranking eighth, while he ranked seventh off the tee and 11^th in approach play, so he produced a great all round performance. Rahm meanwhile ranked second off the tee and second on the greens, however he was only 28^th in approach play on the week. 

Meanwhile third place home last year Brandon Wu ranked fifth off the tee and first on the greens.  All in all then from the limited data we have it would seem that the key stat here is Strokes Gained Off The Tee, with a hot putter as always helping.

Knapp’s win was built around an excellent tee to green performance, which saw him rank first in approach for the week and 11^th off the tee. Add in 17^th for the week in putting and you can see why he won!

Another obvious link here is form on other tracks, which feature Paspalum greens. Smalley had a few weeks prior to his sixth place in 2022 finished runner up on the paspalum at the Corales. Brandon Wu something of a specialist here has a third place finish in Puerto Rico two his name, Akshay Bhatia who was fourth here last year had won earlier in the year on the Korn ferry on paspalum.

Finally on the paspalum front the 11^th place home here in 2022 Nate Lashley is a bit of a specialist at the Corales having won there before while the player who tied 11^th place with him, Martin Trainer is a former Puerto Rico champion.

Bringing this up to date and last years top ten featured Justin Lower who subsequently posted top tens at the Corales and the Worldwide Technologies Championship, Erik Van Rooyen the 2023 Worlwide Technologies Championship winner and Carson Young who was third in Puerto Rico the previous year.

 Courses on the PGA Tour we are looking at on this front are the historical Mayakoba track, the El Cardonal track, which replaced it and the Puerto Rico and Corales venue.

In addition to form on the paspalum general coastal form is of course also of value, with the likes of Brandon Wu, Kurt Kitayama, CT Pan and Erik Van Rooyen often popping up on leaderboards when the sea is in sight.

From a winning score point of view in 2022 Rahm triumphed on 17- under while the four players who finished in a tie for second all posted 16- under. Finau significantly improved on this number posting 24- under while Knapp’s winning total was 19- under.

WEATHER FORECAST

I am pleased to say we look set for a warm sunny week with temperatures in the mid to high 80s.

Wind, which is the courses main defence doesn’t look to be a huge factor this week so conditions should be there for low scoring.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

AKSHAY BHATIA –  14/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

First up this week I can’t get away from the credentials of Akshay Bhatia.

A two time winner on the PGA Tour already Bhatia is looking more and more comfortable in the company of the games biggest names as each week goes so this step down in class is well within his compass to pick of win number three.

Akshay debuted full time on the PGA Tour in the 22/23 season and he made his first big impression when finishing second on the Paspalum in Puerto Rico in March. After a poor six weeks or so he then bounced back to form, once more on the paspalum in this event when finishing fourth. He then added a 10^th place in Mexico to his CV later in the year at the Worldwide Technologies championship. Add to the fact that Akshay landed his Korn Ferry win in the Bahamas on the Paspalum and clearly he is hugely comfortable on the surface.

After posting his second win on tour in Texas in 2024 Bhatia made it all the way to the Tour Championship before finishing 26^th in the Fedex Cup, as a result he earned himself a spot in all of the games biggest events this year.

2025 has seen the 23yr old start steadily with nothing worse than 32^nd in his first three events however he really found his stride last week at the Genesis finishing ninth. A look at his stats for the week at Torrey Pines then gives us plenty of encouragement as he was string in all key areas ranking seventh in approach, 15^th off the tee off the tee and 20^th in putting.

With a busy schedule coming up including signature events, the Players and of course The Masters the fact that Akshay has chosen to head to Mexico this week tells us all we need to know regarding his liking for the course and I will take the hint and jump on board.

PATRICK RODGERS –  22/1 – 2pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next up this week I will take my chances with Patrick Rodgers.

I was close to siding with Patrick last week at the Genesis at Torrey and needless to say I finished the week frustrated that I hadn’t. Admittedly then I have spent some time today second guessing myself as to whether this is shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. Ultimately though the simple facts are that despite falling agonisingly short last week Rodgers produced some superb golf at Torrey Pines before finishing third amongst the games elite. With a whole bunch of ranking points then not to mention a very big payday there are plenty of positives for the Stanford grad to takeaway from San Diego.

On to this week then and Rodgers will surely be looking to take that momentum to a venue that he has played very nicely on three starts finishing tenth on his first two visits before finishing sixth when we were onboard last year. Indeed the fact that Rodgers has performed so well here is not surprising as his distance off the tee should certainly be an asset, while he has consistently shown at venues like Sea Island, Bermuda and of course Torrey, which we know links really well to here that he enjoys a coastal test.

Still searching for that elusive first tour win it is understandable that questions will continue to be asked until he bags it, however this event is there for the taking and I am happy to risk that on the back of last weeks great showing that this is the week it all finally comes together.

ALDRICH POTGIETER –  60/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 8.

Next for me this week is the hugely talented Aldrich Potgieter.

Potgieter is clearly player destined for big things, however no doubt he is also still very much a rough diamond. As such we have to accept that siding with him this early in his PGA Tour career brings the risk that if he does not take to the test in front of him our interest could be done by the weekend.

That all said though there is plenty to think that this weeks test could be right up his alley.

Firstly of course we have his prodigious length off the tee, basically Potgieter is arguably now the biggest hitter on the tour. As noted earlier while this event is still in its formative years it appears from the success of Rahm, Finau and Knapp that distance here is certainly an advantage.

Talking of Rahm, Finau and Knapp and we have a clear link developing between this event and another coastal event that favours big hitters, The Farmers Insurance Open, with all three of the winners here having marked our card with success at Torrey Pines. Knapp in particular having finished third in the Farmers prior to his win here highlights this.

With Aldrich then having performed so strongly at Torrey Pines, sitting third through 54 holes before fading on Sunday we have that clear pointer here.

Potgieter earned his PGA Tour card courtesy of finishing 29^th on last seasons Korn Ferry Tour with the highlight of this campaign being his win at The Bahamas Great Abaco Classic, a victory, which saw him take Jason Day’s record as the youngest ever Korn Ferry winner. As well as showing us the quality he undoubtedly holds this win for Aldrich also gives us another great link to this week as it came on Paspalum greens.

The fact that the 20yr old did win by the coast should come as no surprise to us as he hails from Mossell Bay in South Africa. Clearly then like Mossell Bay’s other famous golfing son Louis Oosthuizen, Aldrich is a player with undoubted pedigree in coastal conditions and this is something he showed us again when winning the Amateur Championship at Lytham.

I’ll take all the pointers to Potgieter this week then and he is a must for me here.

KRISTOFFER VENTURA –  70/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next this week sticking with the big hitting theme I will turn to Kristoffer Ventura.

A fellow graduate of OSU and countryman of Viktor Hovland big things were expected of Ventura when he first came out on tour in 2019-20, however he struggled to find any consistency and after a stay of execution for one year through though the Covid period he returned to the Korn Ferry ranks.

The following two seasons on the Korn Ferry offered no immediate return to the big league, however 2024 saw Kris find a greater level of consistency and four top tens saw him finish 24^th in the final Korn Ferry rankings and regain his card.

Starting back out in 2025 then and while its early days the signs are promising that this time the Norwegian is here to stay as he had made three cuts out of four, with his best finish to date by, significantly for this week, coming when fourth at Torrey Pines.

One other interesting link to this week is while Ventura’s family eventually settled in Norway he was born in Mexico, spent his early year there and has a Mexican father. As such he talked when playing in Mexico in his initial time on tour how much it meant to him.

Returning to his homeland this week then and to a track you would expect to suit his big hitting far more than Mayakoba, where he teed it up before, I am keen to have him on side.

WILL GORDON –  125/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Finally this week I will take a chance on Will Gordon.

After missing a chunk of last season Gordon finds himself on a Major Medical Extension this year with 10 events now remaining.

Fortunately for Will he took a big chunk out of the points he needs by posting a seventh place finish at Torrey Pines in the Farmers. Great news for him and a big pointer for us on a hugely correlating track.

With four cuts made in four starts this year Will is producing some solid stuff so far in 2025 and he now returns to a venue that he was 24^th at on his lone previous visit in 2023, a result that could have been much better had it not been for a closing 74. In addition it should be noted Will was in no form at all arriving here that week with nothing better than 28^th prior in the year.

Delve further and a look at Gordon’s record in Mexico in general shows that he has a third and 15^th to his name in the Fall event so clearly he enjoys the Paspalum and his trips south of the border.

Another big hitter this really should be a course which suits Will perfectly and with his 2025 gaining momentum I’m keen to have him on side.