Genesis Invitational

Genesis Invitational

It was a disappointing week for us in Phoenix with most of our team never really getting going. The one exception to this was Tom Kim who was handily placed after 36 holes giving us cause for optimism. Unfortunately though the young Korean stalled badly on Saturday and by Sunday our race was run.

The event itself was won by Thomas Detry who after years of being the perennial bridesmaid finally produced the full package for 72 holes. Heading in to Sunday with a five shot lead on a course with a history of day four comebacks many expected the Belgian to falter, however despite a couple of nervy moments the 32yr old closed out in style with three birdies to finish to post an emphatic seven shot win. There is no doubt this victory had been coming for Detry and it will be fascinating to see if he can push on now.

So, we move on for the final leg of the West Coast Swing, the Genesis Invitational.

This year due to the recent tragic wild fires in the Los Angeles area the event has been moved from its regular host course, the iconic Riviera G&CC to Torrey Pines Couth Course in La Jolla. This course is as we know the regular main host course of the Farmers Insurance Open where we were just three weeks ago and the fact that the infrastructure was already in place from that event I am sure will have had a big part in the decision to hold the event there.

The Genesis Open was first held in 1926.

Its previous names have included the Los Angeles Open, The Nissan Open and The Northern Trust Open before Genesis Motors took over as the title sponsor in 2017.

The tournament has been held at the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades on a pretty much continuous basis since 1973.

2020 saw a change as with effect from then the tournament was given Invitational status. As a result of this the field size was slightly reduced to 120 compared to other PGA Tour events. In addition the winner here will receive a three year tour exemption compared to the usual two.

This year the event is the third of this season’s ‘Signature Events’ and like the previous two there is a limited field of between 70-80 in attendance. The final field will be made up of last seasons top 50, ‘the next ten, the ‘swing five’ and sponsors invitations, with tournament host Tiger Woods taking one of those spots.

Unlike the previous two Signature Events this year this week a cut will be in play with the top 50 and those within ten shots of the lead through 36 holes playing the weekend.

The field needless to say is a stellar one with Scottie Scheffler heading the market from Rory McIlroy.

This duo are then followed by the Californian trio of Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama.

COURSE

Torrey Pines South Course is pretty much the longest Par 72 course on tour stretching to 7800 yds.

The greens are Poa Annua.

The venue is the regular host course of the Farmers Insurance Open. In addition it has hosted the US Open twice over the years with Tiger Woods memorably triumphing here in a play off with Rocco Mediate in 2008 when suffering with a broken leg. More recently Jon Rahm lifted his first Major here in 2021.

This is very much a course where players with a strong game off the tee thrive with it important to keep the ball in play.

Whilst it’s not impossible for shorter hitters to compete here big hitters do have an advantage on the South Course.

HISTORY

With event moving to Torrey Pines South this year it seems logical to focus on past Farmers Ins Open form as opposed to Genesis form so let’s take a look at the last ten winners of the Farmers including the recent edition and find some clues…

2025 H English

2024 M Pavon

2023 M Homa

2022 L List

2021 P Reed

2020    M Leishman

2019    J Rose

2018    J Day

2017    J Rahm

2016    B Snedeker

2015    J Day

The Farmers was dominated by Tiger Woods through the early part of the 2000s with four consecutive wins coming from him from 2005 – 2008. The most recent of his 7 wins at the event came in 2013.

As we can see from the above list over the years the Farmers has been an event on the whole for the big names however over recent years we have had two shock winners in Luke List firstly in 2022 and then Matthieu Pavon last year. The Frenchman’s victory was probably as huge surprise as we had on the PGA Tour last year having just started life on the PGA Tour after gaining his card via the DP Worl Tour.

In addition to Tiger the other course specialists over recent years have been Brandt Snedeker who as well as having 2 wins to his name has 7 other top 10s in the last 15 editions and Jason Day who has two wins and three further top five’s in the past ten years.

Looking at the winners over the past ten years form in previous events in the calendar year coming in does not seem to be particularly significant.

This can be seen by the fact that only five of the winners since the turn of the decade had a top 10 finish to their name in the calendar year already.

These were Brandt Snedeker [twice], Day in 2015, Max Homa in 2023 who had finished third at the Sentry in his previous calendar year start and Pavon last year, who despite being an unheralded champion had given a hint of what was to come when finishing seventh at the Sony.

Multiple winners are also common place in this event as following on from Tiger’s domination we have seen both Snedeker and Day win twice.

The most striking point to note though is that previous course form does appear to play a significant part here with only two of the past ten winners Pavon and Jon Rahm, not having at least one previous top ten finish here, while two of the past ten winners, Snedeker and Day had actually triumphed here before.

This trend has been rubber stamped once more over the past five years with Leishman who triumphed here in 2020 having previously notched four top tens including two runner up finishes,  Reed again fitting the bill perfectly having finished sixth here the year before, List triumphing on the back of 10^th here the year before and 12^th in 2018 and California specialist Homa bagged the trophy after a previous ninth place finish.

Finally to bring us right up to date recent winner here Harris English also fitted that profile perfectly in that he had three top tens on his resume in his previous ten visits to Torrey including a third in the 2021 US Open.

All in all five of the last 13 champions here finished in the top ten the year before.

It should also be noted that not only does previous course form appear to be important but overall experience on the course certainly seems to hold value.

Reed triumphed here on his sixth visit, Leishman bagged the title on his twelfth visit here while Justin Rose, the 2019 Champion, bagged the trophy on his eighth start of the decade after finally cracking the top 10 in start number six. List again fitted the profile perfectly as he triumphed on his eighth start here, while Homa was victorious on his seventh visit. Meanwhile English tasted victory on his 12^th start in the event.

Pavon obviously blew this stat out of the water last year while Rahm was first time PGA Tour winner in the event this century, obviously though he was no ordinary ‘maiden’.

This week though of course we have the conundrum that many of the big names here this week are not regulars at the usual tour stop for the Farmers and many were not here three weeks ago. It must be said for example then that past course experience being a necessity is probably not so key for this week. For example you certainly wouldn’t be ruling out the in- form Rory McIlroy, who it should be noted was seventh here in the 2021 US Open, just because he doesn’t tend to play the Farmers these days.

Finally, being a coastal event the wind can have a big impact on the winning score and who can forget Snedeker’s ‘round of the year’ 69 in the gales [certainly not me as I was on him!] in 2016 to pinch the trophy from nowhere, with all around him struggling to break 76.

In general though it is not uncommon for the winning score to be single figures under par and this has been the case in 3 of the last 9yrs, however in 2020 Leishman triumphed with -15 and the previous year Justin Rose won with a score of -21!

In 2021 perhaps in the build up to the US Open played a bit tougher with only the winner Patrick Reed who landed a five shot victory, posting a double digits under par score at 14- under, while list year List and Will Zalatoris posted 15- under before List edged the playoff. In 2023 Homa triumphed with a 13- under total and Pavon notched the same score last year.

Finally on this front English triumphed on an 8- under total three weeks ago and with the tougher South course in place for all four days this week and some tricky conditions again expected I would anticipate a similar sort of number triumphing.

WEATHER FORECAST

The early part of the week looks dry however this looks set to all change on Thursday with heavy rain forecast, which could quite possibly lead to a suspension in play.

While the rest of the week does not hold any further major rainfall in the forecast there could be some showers on Thursday and Friday and I would expect the course to play soft through the week thus favouring the bigger hitters.

Wind always potentially an issue here will certainly be a factor on Thursday [if the players do get out there] and on Friday with the potential for 30mph+ gusts. Things then look calmer on Saturday and Sunday.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with four players this week as follows;

RORY MCILROY –  8/1 – 5pts WIN. - FINISHED 17th

As regular readers will know I am not as a rule someone who regularly gets stuck in to players win only at single figure odds, particularly when they have to beat the prolific world number one who heads the betting, to land the odds.

That said, whichever way I look this week I can’t get away from Rory McIlroy so I’ll have the courage of my convictions and jump onboard.

The case for McIlroy is pretty straightforward as you would expect but I’ll make it anyway. Firstly and most obviously he arrives here in superb form having landed his first stroke play win in California last time out at Pebble Beach. What was so impressive that week about McIlroy was that he defied the elements in a tough scoring test on a short course, which took his strongest weapon, the driver, pretty much out of his hands. Add that to a fourth place in his first start of the year in Dubai and a win on the same soil at the year ending DP Worl Tour Championships last November and he really is firing on all cylinders at the moment.

So what of this weeks test? Well as noted earlier Rory hasn’t been a regular visitor to Torrey Pines for several years, in fact he has not teed it up here since the 2021 US Open when he was seventh. Prior to that though he had finished in the top five in two of his previous three visits so clearly he is comfortable here.

The fact that the Northern Irishman has performed strongly here should come as no surprise in that conversely to Pebble Beach the South Course plays right in to his long game strengths and with the anticipated wet conditions likely to lengthen the test further what lies ahead looks almost tailor-made for McIlroy.

Like many of the worlds best over the years Rory has shown us on numerous occasions that he can back up a win with another and ‘go on a tear’ and despite Scheffler’s presence I see him as the man to beat this week.

TAYLOR PENDRITH – 35/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 6 - FINISHED 50th

Next up while Taylor Pendrith isn’t a player I tend to turn to too often I can’t avoid his obvious credentials this week.

The Canadian finally landed his maiden PGA Tour title at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last May and since then he has continued to play some excellent golf.

From June 2024 Taylor has made every cut only once more finishing worse than 33^rd last season while he finished 2024 with five top 14 finishes, including three top tens, in six starts. Meanwhile this year he has picked up where he left off posting three top 13 finishes in four starts with a seasons best to date coming at the Farmers when seventh. Last time out he mixed it in high class company to finish ninth at the Signature event at Pebble Beach.

Looking at Pendrith’s record at Torrey Pines and in addition to his recent seventh he was ninth last year and has also made the cut on his previous two visits finishing 16^th on debut so clearly he feels at home here with the length of the course playing in to his hands.

Another big factor in siding with Pendrith this week is that with wet, soft conditions expected the course looks set to play even longer than normal and as one of the biggest hitters on tour this should certainly play to his advantage.

All in all then Pendrith has plenty going for him this week and I am keen to have him on side.

GARY WOODLAND – 125/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 6 - FINISHED MC

Next up in a week where I am keen to side with players who have that extra ammunition off the tee I will turn to Gary Woodland.

As has been very well documented Woodland’s career was derailed by a serious medical issue, which required him to have brain surgery in 2023.

Returning in 2024 it was no doubt initially a struggle for Woodland as he tried to recapture past form, however from July onwards, while not pulling up any trees, he found a solid level of consistency making seven of his final nine cuts for the year with a best of ninth at the Shriners.

Heading now in 2025 and the signs have been encouraging from Gary as his three starts have seen him finish no worse than 22^nd with a best of 16^th at the Sony. Last weekend in Phoenix meanwhile on his way to 21^st he caught the eye with his iron play, ranking 12^th in approach for the week.

Clear progression then from Woodland but what of this week?, well firstly he has been a regular fixture at Torrey Pines over the years posting two top tens along the way so he has exactly the sort of course profile we are looking for. Furthermore as one of the longest hitters on tour he has the distance that I expect to be key this week.

A former US Open champion up the coast a Pebble Beach Woodland has always been a player who comes to prominence on tough tests and with his form trending nicely he looks a lively outsider at big odds this week and I am keen to have him onside.

KEVIN YU – 175/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 17th

Finally having started my picks at the top end of the market I will go to the bottom end and roll the dice at long odds on Kevin Yu.

After posting four top tens in the regular tour season in 2024 Yu came out in the Fall and landed his maiden tour title at the Sanderson Farms.

Heading in to 2025 then Kevin’s reward for that win was a spot in the Aon ‘next ten’, which in turn earned him a start in the recent Pebble Beach event and this weeks Genesis.

It has to be said that Yu started 2025 fairly slowly. Finishing 44^th at the Sentry, before missing his next two cuts including here at Torrey, and finishing right down the field at Pebble. Last week though in Phoenix Kevin sparked to life to finish 16^th. Furthermore his trademark long game appeared to be firing again as he ranked third for the week off the tee, a solid 26^th in approach and ninth in good old fashioned GIR.

While Kevin’s missed cut at Torrey recently is not ideal it should be noted that he was sixth in the Farmers in 2024 so he certainly has positive memories here to fall back on.

Longer than average off the tee, Yu’s tee to green game really should be ideally suited to Torrey Pines and as a player with a high ceiling on his day I am happy to risk him here to nick a place for us at juicy odds.