AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am

It was a week that started so promisingly for us at Torrey Pines but sadly went downhill as it progressed and by Sunday we were all but a spectator to the battle at the top end of the leaderboard with regards to our selections.

The great start for us had come courtesy of our headline pick Ludvig Aberg who waltzed around the North Course in 63 on the opening day to take the first round lead. The Swede then hung tough in the windy conditions on Thursday and despite posting a second round 75 he still held a share of the 36 hole lead.

Unfortunately though that’s when things started to go wrong as Aberg struggling with the flu bug that had swept through the locker room tumbled badly down the leaderboard over the final 36 holes to ultimately finish 42^nd. With the rest of our team failing to get in serious contention as well it just wasn’t our week.

The event itself was won by Harris English who produced an excellent controlled final round to hang on to his narrow 54 hole lead and post a one shot victory.

A five time winner now on tour English’s victory was a reminder that despite the occasional outlier like Pavon last year, the tried and tested formula at Torrey Pines of plenty of experience on the course with previous top ten finishes is still the most likely clue to finding the winner. Harris certainly fitted that model to a tee.

So before returning to Torrey Pines in a three weeks for the relocated Genesis Invitational the tour heads up the I1 in California on the coast to Pebble Beach for the AT & T Pro Am.

Those familiar with the event will be aware that for years the tournament has held a pro-am format played over a three course rotation, with Pebble Beach acting as host course. The event is known for its laid back pro-am atmosphere with the likes of Bill Murray and Huey Lewis wowing the fans year in year out….

Last year however this all changed as the event took on Signature Event status with only two courses in play, Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hills.

A field of 80 will tee it up in the no cut event with all players playing a round on each course over the first two days before Pebble takes over for the final 36 holes. Monterey Penninsula, which has been the third course used over the years was dropped from the rotation.

The amateurs who have been a big part of this event over the years are still present over the first couple of days but in a far reduced basis. In addition those amateurs present are now made up purely from the world of sports so as a result was bye bye last year to Bill Murray, Ray Romano and Carlton from the Fresh Prince.

The 80 players are made up of last season’s Fedex Cup top 50 who are guaranteed starts in all of this years Signature Events, the ‘next ten’ who earnt their place in the event through their performances in the Fall events and the ‘swing five’ who have played their way in over the past three weeks. Finally the field will be completed by members of the worlds top 30 who are not already eligible and sponsors exemptions allowing for the return of Jordan Spieth to name bit one.

Still with me?, great! If not all you really need to know is that as a result we have a star studded field present far superior to anything seen here over the years until last year.

The market is headed up by the returning Scottie Scheffler, now fully recovered from his Christmas Day knife ravioli making accident. Scheffler is then followed by Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa.

COURSES

As noted above the event will be played across two courses this year. The courses used will be as follows;

Pebble Beach

Spyglass Hills

Both courses are short at under 7000 yards, so length of the tee is not an issue here at all.

Both play to a par 72 and both feature Poa Annua greens.

Historically Spyglass Hills has played as the toughest course in the event however with the wind being the main defence of the courses if it blows one day but not on another this can have a big effect on the scoring averages from day to day.

If the wind does blow then Pebble Beach in particular suddenly becomes a brute, but if Mother Nature is kind to the players the tracks are there for the taking. That said I would expect this year for pin positions to be tougher at Pebble over the weekend compared to years gone by with celebrities not in the picture.

HISTORY

So let’s start by taking a look at the last ten winners

2024 W Clark [Reduced to 54 holes].

2023 J Rose

2022 T Hoge

2021 D Berger

2020 N Taylor

2019 P Mickelson

2018 T Potter Jnr

2017 J Spieth

2016 V Taylor

2015 B Snedeker

In six of the last ten years this has been an event for the ‘big guns’ with Mickelson, Snedeker, Spieth, Walker, Berger, Justin Rose and Wyndham Clark last year winning, however in the three of the other years there have been absolute ‘skinners’ getting over the line in the form of Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor and of course Ted Potter Jnr who took down DJ and Day in 2018.

In 2022 meanwhile although not one of the game’s biggest names a well fancied Tom Hoge triumphed with us onboard.

The obvious thing to point out here though is that the field has been relatively weak over recent years whereas from last year and again this the games best are in town.

One thing all of the winners over the last decade or so had in common is a decent amount of course/event experience and some previous high finishes.

This can be seen by the fact that all 9 of the last 10 winners had a previous top 16 finish in the event and in most cases they had made several starts in here.

Two of them, Mickelson, Snedeker were all repeat winners. If we then look at the other winners over the past decade, Potter Jnr had finished 16^th here previously, Walker had posted three top tens in the three years prior to his win while Spieth had posted two. Vaughn Taylor had finished 10^th the year before, Nick Taylor had finished tenth here in 2017 and Daniel Berger had finished tenth and fifth on his two previous visits.

The 2022 champion Hoge had finished 12^th the year before and triumphed on his seventh start here, while 2023 winner Justin Rose, although not a regular over the years here had made several starts with a sixth place here on the resume.

The odd man out was last years Champion Clark who had made three previous starts in the event with a best of 18^th. This could of course be a prelude to a shift in profile allowing for the event gaining its Signature status however we mustn’t also forget that  last years event was reduced to 54 holes with Clark who shot a superb 60 on Saturday to vault through the field and take a one shot lead declared the winner.

Ultimately though I am keen to focus on players with past positive course experience here as opposed to those now in attendance purely due to the new Signature status.

Current form coming in is useful but not essential. West Coast specialists Snedeker, Walker and Mickelson had all telegraphed there win with good form over the first few weeks of the new year as had Spieth and Berger. Equally though 2020 champion Nick Taylor had managed nothing better than 32^nd in his first four starts of the year missing the cut in two of them while Potter Jnr and Vaughn Taylor had done absolutely nothing over the previous few weeks prior to their victories to warrant consideration! Hoge had finished second at the Amex pro-am event just a fortnight before so despite missing the cut at the Farmers the previous week he was clearly in good nick. Rose had started 2023 in positive fashion with finishes of 26^th & 18^th over the previous two weeks. Finally last years winner Clark had started the year in a fairly low key manner finishing 29^th and 39^th in his first two starts.

The other factor to look at is form on correlating courses on events played on short coastal tracks such as the Sony Open, The RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic being obvious points of reference.

The winning score is very much dictated by the weather. Over the last 10yrs we have seen winning scores ranging from -22 [Snedeker in 2015] to – 11, [Jimmy Walker in 2014].

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for a chilly all be it sunny week with temperatures barely creeping above 60 degrees although things warm up a fraction over the weekend.

The wind, which is obviously the key factor here doesn’t look to be much of an issue this week with nothing over 10-15mph in the forecast.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with four players this week as follows;

PATRICK CANTLAY –  18/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 7.

I shall start this week with an obvious selection from the top end of the market in the shape of Patrick Cantlay.

I mentioned earlier that my preference is to focus on those who clearly have an affinity to the track having been regulars over the years here, as opposed to those to now pitching up due to the events new Signature status and Cantlay certainly fits that bill.

With seven appearances in the pro-am event here over the years Patrick has not finished outside the top 11 in his last four visits, with two top four finishes in that run as well. Clearly then the Californian is hugely at home on the Monterey Coast.

As has been well documented Patrick has not visited the winners enclosure since the 2022 BMW Championship, something which is no doubt a huge frustration to him however his consistency certainly can’t be faulted as he has not finished outside of the top 25 since missing the cut at the Memorial last June.

Patrick has started 2025 is similar strong fashion opening with a 15^th place at the Sentry, which he then backed up with a fifth place at the Amex.

Clearly determined to end his winless drought there really is not too much more to say about Cantlay this week.

In a week then when there are certainly question marks about those above him in the market, whether it be through returning from injury/illness or not having any track record of note here I won’t look to reinvent the wheel here and will go with Patrick’s obvious combination of course form and trending current form.

JASON DAY – 33/1 – 2pts E/W  - 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up I will side with the blindingly obvious claims of Jason Day.

I will admit I am always wary of backing Day as you never quite know when he will fall foul of a health issue, that said touch wood the former World Number One seems to be fully fit these days and raring to go.

Assuming then there are no last minute fitness issues what we have with Jason is a player who more than anyone in this field loves the test offered up by Pebble Beach.

His record here basically speaks for itself in that he has only finished outside of the top seven twice in his last nine starts in the Pro-Am. From that point of view then even if we have to allow for the fact that he is yet to win here the each way part of the bet makes massive appeal.

Come rain or shine then Jason always seems to turn up in this event, last year for example he arrived on the back of a missed cut at the Farmers and a 34^th at the Amex and duly finished sixth, this year though we have the added bonus that he already has a top three finish on the books for the year at the Amex a couple of weeks ago. In addition while his 32^nd at the Farmers last week isn’t anything on paper to get too exited about, it should be noted that he crafted a superb 69 on Friday on the North Course, which uniquely was playing tougher than the South due to the extreme winds. Granted he closed disappointingly on Sunday but allowing for the grind that the week was I’m not overly concerned about one bad round.

In addition a look at Jason’s stats on the measured rounds at Torrey shows us that his iron game was still firing strongly as he ranked 11^th for the week and it was just the flat stick, which let him down, as he ranked pretty much last on the greens. Again though I’ll forgive one bad week in the wind with the club that normally serves him so well.

I’ll happily take Jason then to have his day at Pebble Beach once more this week.

MAVERICK MCNEALY – 50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

In a week where in all honesty there is nothing hugely original in my picks I will next turn to Maverick McNealy.

After a stellar amateur career Maverick arrived on the PGA Tour to great fanfare in the 19/20 season and for the first couple of seasons he settled in comfortably and made steady progress up the rankings.

Unfortunately though in 22/23 things went awry as after battling through a torn ligament shoulder injury, which he coincidentally suffered here with one swing on the seventh, the Californian finally admitted defeat stepping away in June before returning in Mexico in November.

After making a couple of starts then at the back end of 2023 McNealy headed in to 2024 on a Major Medical Extension. After taking care of what he needed on that front early in the season Maverick went on to notch five top ten finishes through the year before finally posting a long overdue first tour win at the RSM in the final event of 2024.

Maverick now returns then as a PGA Tour winner to Pebble Beach a course he knows well having been brought up not far away in Stanford and with his family having owned a home there while he grew up.

With some players a ‘home game’ like this can carry extra burden, however to McNealy this does not appear to be the case and when in the hunt in 2021 he said “I tend to play well closer to home, I’m just really excited to be on a golf course I’m comfortable at, with conditions I’m familiar with. It would be really, really fun to win here.”

Sadly it wasn’t to be that year as Maverick eventually came second to Daniel Berger, however with that finish coming on the back of a fifth the year before his comments regarding being comfortable here are clearly true.

Furthermore Maverick has clearly shown us in his time to date on tour that he is comfortable on shortish coastal tracks in general as in addition to his big performances here and of course his win now at Sea Island, he has top ten’s at Mayakoba and Waialae CC to his name along with a fourth at Hilton Head.

In addition Maverick has shown a great affinity to playing in his home state in general having racked up top tens at The Genesis Invitational and The Barracuda to go with a runner up finish at the Fortinet.

Maverick started 2025 with a ninth place finish at the Sentry before cooling off slightly at the Amex and at Torrey Pines. Ultimately though we know he is a class act capable of breaking through at this level and with confidence still surely high I’m keen to have him onside this week.

CAMERON DAVIS – 100/1 – 1pt E/W  - 1/5 odds 1^st 6

Next up I will take a chance on Cameron Davis.

As most students of golf betting will know Davis can be a tough man to follow as you never quite know what to expect from him, that said on his day he is a world class performer and there is enough in his profile this week to suggest he is worth risking.

Brought up on the windy coast of Sydney, Davis has shown time and again on the PGA Tour that he is at home on shorter and/or coastal tracks. To expand further he produced third and seventh place finishes at Hilton Head in 2022 and 2023, while he has notched a sixth place finish at TPC Sawgrass and a seventh place at the Wyndham. He also has top tens on his CV at both the Sentry and the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Meanwhile a look at his record here shows that he has finished 14^th and 20^th on his two most recent visits.

The Aussie has started 2025 in typical up and down fashion finishing 13^th at the Sentry, missing the cut at the Sony and then notching 18^th place at the Amex. More positive than negative then. In addition a look at the measured rounds at the Amex shows us that he ranked 12^th for the week in approach play and first with the putter so the key components for this week appear to be in good working order.

A winner of the Australian Open Davis clearly has the game for the big stage and I’m happy to chance him at the odds this week.