Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open
Jan 20, 2025
Farmers Insurance Open
It was a superb week for us at the American Express as our 70/1 pick Sepp Straka landed the trophy and the spoils for us.
Sepp played superbly all week not making a bogey until the 70th whole of the event on Sunday.
Where he separated himself from the field though was when he posted a day two 64 on the toughest course in the rotation, the Pete Dye Stadium Course, and this was another reminder as to just how well his game is suited to a Dye design and a TPC layout in general, which allows his tee to green strengths to come to the fore.
The Austrian entered Sunday with a four shot lead and despite a charge from Justin Thomas he was able to shoot the steady round required to nurse the lead home to victory.
So, with the American Express behind us for another year we move on in great spirits, and for its second week of the West Coast swing the PGA Tour heads about 80 miles South West in California from La Quinta to La Jolla, San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open.
The Farmers Insurance Open originally graced the PGA Tour as the San Diego Open way back in 1952.
In 1981 title sponsors were added to the tournament and after a succession of different sponsors Buick took over as lead sponsor in 1992. They then continued in this role until 2010 at which point Farmers took over.
After being held at a few different courses over the early years the event landed at Torrey Pines in 1968 and there it has remained to the present day.
In addition of course Torrey Pines also features on the US Open rota and the years second Major visited La Jolla last June.
The market is headed up Hideki Matsuyama and Ludvig Aberg who are vying for favouritism. This pair are then followed by Sungjae Im and Tony Finau.
COURSES
For the second week running we have a tournament which uses multiple courses with all players playing one round on the host course, the South Course, over the first two days, along with one round on the North Course.
Those making the cut then play their final two rounds on the South Course.
The North Course is a par 72 coming in at 7258 yds. Whilst the North Course had a redesign from Tom Weiskopf in 2016, which toughened it up slightly, it’s still by far the easier course of the two and the one to take advantage of over the first two days. The greens are bentgrass.
The South Course is pretty much the longest Par 72 course on tour stretching to over 7700 yds.
The greens are Poa Annua.
Whilst it’s not impossible for shorter hitters to compete here big hitters do have an advantage on the South Course.
HISTORY
Let’s start by taking a look at the last ten winners;
2024 M Pavon
2023 M Homa
2022 L List
2021 P Reed
2020 M Leishman
2019 J Rose
2018 J Day
2017 J Rahm
2016 B Snedeker
2015 J Day
The event was dominated by Tiger Woods through the early part of the 2000s with four consecutive wins coming from him from 2005 – 2008. The most recent of his 7 wins at the event came in 2013.
As we can see from the above list over the years this has been an event on the whole for the big names however over the past three years we have had two shock winners in Luke List firstly in 2022 and then Matthieu Pavon last year. The Frenchman’s victory was probably as huge surprise as we had on the PGA Tour last year having just started life on the PGA Tour after gaining his card via the DP Worl Tour.
In addition to Tiger the other course specialists over recent years have been Brandt Snedeker who as well as having 2 wins to his name has 7 other top 10s in the last 15 editions and Jason Day who has two wins and three further top five’s in the past ten years.
Looking at the winners over the past ten years form in previous events in the calendar year coming in does not seem to be particularly significant.
This can be seen by the fact that only five of the winners since the turn of the decade had a top 10 finish to their name in the calendar year already.
These were Brandt Snedeker [twice], Day in 2015, Max Homa in 2023 who had finished third at the Sentry in his previous calendar year start and Pavon last year, who despite being an unheralded champion had given a hint of what was to come when finishing seventh at the Sony.
Up until 2018 though at least one previous start in the year to shake the rust of did seem to be important however that year Day won here on his first start of the year and Justin Rose managed a similar feat in 2019. Normal service has resumed on this front though over the past five years with Pavon, Homa, List, Leishman and Reed.
Multiple winners are also common place in this event as following on from Tiger’s domination we have seen both Snedeker and Day win twice.
The most striking point to note though is that previous course form does appear to play a significant part here with only two of the past ten winners Pavon and Jon Rahm, not having at least one previous top ten finish here, while two of the past ten winners, Snedeker and Day had actually triumphed here before.
This trend was rubber stamped once more over the past five years with Leishman who triumphed here in 2020 having previously notched four top tens including two runner up finishes, Reed again fitting the bill perfectly having finished sixth here the year before, List triumphing on the back of 10th here the year before and 12th in 2018 and California specialist Homa bagged the trophy after a previous ninth place finish.
Allowing for List in 2021 then, Reeds sixth place in 2020, Snedeker [in 2012] and Day when they gained there first wins here, and Rose when he was victorious here, five of the last 13 champions here finished in the top ten the year before.
It should also be noted that not only does previous course form appear to be important but overall experience on the course certainly seems to hold value.
Reed triumphed here on his sixth visit, Leishman bagged the title on his twelfth visit here while Justin Rose, the 2019 Champion, bagged the trophy on his eighth start of the decade after finally cracking the top 10 in start number six. List again fitted the profile perfectly as he triumphed on his eighth start here, while Homa was victorious on his seventh visit.
Pavon obviously blew this stat out of the water last year while Rahm was first time PGA Tour winner in the event this century, obviously though he was no ordinary ‘maiden’.
One other trend that had clearly developed over recent years was the habit of the winner playing the South Course on Thursday and the North Course on Friday and this had been the case every year from 2011 to 2018.
Invariably what we had seen over this period is the eventual winner shoot somewhere around level par or even over par on day one leaving them way down the field before storming through in to contention with a strong round on the Friday.
However this trend was bucked from 2019 through 2021 as Reed opened with a 64 on the North Course in 2021 before posting 72 at the South on Friday, Leishman with a 68 on the North Course in 2020 before posting again 72 on the South the next day, while in 2019 Justin Rose stormed out of the gates with a 63 at the North Course before adding an impressive 66 at the South on Friday.
In 2022 it was a return to the norm with List as he opened with a strong 67 on the South on Thursday before posting 68 at the North on Friday, however in 2023 Homa opened on the North with a 68 before working his way through the field on the South as the week progressed. Finally last year Pavon opened with a 69 on Friday on the North before storming in to contention with a round two 65 on the South. All in all then it would seem this there is no real clear relevance over the recent years as to, which course the eventual winner starts on.
Finally, being a coastal event the wind can have a big impact on the winning score and who can forget Snedeker’s ‘round of the year’ 69 in the gales [certainly not me as I was on him!] in 2016 to pinch the trophy from nowhere, with all around him struggling to break 76.
In general though it is not uncommon for the winning score to be single figures under par and this has been the case in 3 of the last 9yrs, however in 2020 Leishman triumphed with -15 and the previous year Justin Rose won with a score of -21!
In 2021 perhaps in the build up to the US Open played a bit tougher with only the winner Patrick Reed who landed a five shot victory, posting a double digits under par score at 14- under, while list year List and Will Zalatoris posted 15- under before List edged the playoff. In 2023 Homa triumphed with a 13- under total and Pavon notched the same score last year.
WEATHER FORECAST.
We look set for a bright sunny week with temperatures mostly around the 70 degree mark. On Saturday though things will get significantly cooler with the temperature set to drop to under 60.
The wind, which can often be an issue looks set to keep the players honest with gusts around 15-20mph in the forecast particularly on Thursday and Saturday..
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows;
LUDVIG ABERG – 4pts WIN – 11/1
Despite his undoubted world class pedigree Ludvig Aberg is a player who I have rarely backed since he burst on to the scene a couple of years back. Basically the layers have been ahead of his odds from the outset and on that basis I’ve never really been overly enthused to jump onboard.
This week though, whichever way I look I just can’t get away from him so I have decided to take the plunge.
So why Ludvig this week? Well in simple terms ever since his profile emerged he has looked an absolutely ideal candidate to triumph at Torrey Pines and having had a ‘sighter’ round here last year to finish ninth he looks set to push on from that debut performance. Granted he doesn’t have the big bank of experience around here that many historical winners have had, however as we saw with Jon Rahm if you are a special talent who is a perfect for a course that can be easily overcome.
If there is one thing that we know about Torrey Pines it is it that to master it, it requires a strong accurate, big hitting, tee to green game just like Rahm and basically exactly what Ludvig has. A look at his 2024 stats shows us that he was fourth in total driving, 14th off the tee, 15th from tee to green and 22nd in driving distance.
Ludvig notched eight top ten finishes on the PGA Tour in 2024 including a memorable runner up at Augusta a venue which we know links nicely here, and he will have been disappointed not to bag his second PGA tour win.
After the Tour Championship though Aberg was waylaid by a knee injury, which required surgery. Worrying for such a young player for sure. Returning with a sold 17th place at the RSM though followed up by sixth at the Hero, he has started 2025 strongly with a fifth place at the Sentry.
Looking at this weeks field it is fair to say it lacking in strength in depth and to return to my starting theme I find it hard not envisage Ludvig being right in the hunt down the stretch on Sunday. To put it simply he is a must for me this week.
BEAU HOSSLER – 50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
As long term readers will know Beau Hossler is a player who has been in and out of these previews for several years now as he continues his quest for his maiden tour title.
As readers will also know I tend to focus on Beau a lot more strongly when he is teeing it up in his home state of California or his adopted state of Texas.
Back in California this week then Beau tees it up on a course he knows inside out from his junior golf days and in the pro ranks has notched two top tens on in eight visits including a best of sixth last year. Like most of our picks this week then he has the requisite previous big finish here.
Comfortable on the test then what of Beau’s recent form? Well after a lacklustre main season campaign in 2024, which saw him miss the play offs Hossler sprung to life in the Fall when agonisingly missing out once more on his maiden tour title at the Sanderson’s in a play off loss to Kevin Yu. Credit to Beau though he continued to play nicely through the Fall notching three top 25s in his final four starts of the year.
On to 2025 and Beau seems to have started where he left off with an eye catching seasons opener of 15th at the Amex.
I’ve no doubt Beau will become a winner on tour eventually and I’ll side with him to deliver the goods in his home state this week.
JOHANATTAN VEGAS – 80/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
After a period in the doldrums blighted by injury Jonny Vegas returned to the winners enclosure year for the first time in seven years at the 3M Open.
Following that win Jonny then continued to play nicely for the remainder of the year only missing one weekend in eight starts.
A look at Vegas’ stats for 2024 shows us exactly what we are looking for for this , in that he ranked eighth off the tee, 18th from tee to green, 22nd in approach play and ninth in driving distance.
If we then look at Jonny’s history here and he has been an over present over the years with numerous strong efforts and a best of third on debut way back in 2011.
The Venezuelan started 2025 really strongly with a fourth place at the Sentry before missing the cut last week at the Amex. I am not going to get too het up about that though as he signed off with a 67 on Saturday and shot 72 around the stadium course so it was only his opening 71, which let him down.
With Vegas it is quite simply all about the putter and if he can get the flat stick to cooperate this week, with his ball striking firing I can see a really big effort performance from him.
RICO HOEY – 100/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next up this week I can’t resist Rico Hoey.
While Hoey doesn’t fit the history here of winners with regards to PGA Tour previous winning pedigree and course experience as we saw last year with Pavon strange things can happen! Instead then I will focus on the combination of Hoey’s recent form, suitability for the track and affinity to the local area and course.
Starting with the final point and Rico was brought up 90 minutes north of here in Rancho Cucamonga and having attended the University of Southern California he is a SoCal guy through and through.
Furthermore Hoey was a standout amateur in California and having won the World Junior championships on the South Course here in 2012 when pipping Beau Hossler to the trophy he will clearly have very fond memories of the course, which I am sure he knows well.
With regards to his suitability to the course and one look at some of the recent winners here along with players who have performed well tells us that Rico has exactly the skill sets we are looking for. Ninth on tour last year in strokes gained off the tee, 25th in driving distance and first in total driving is exactly the sort of big hitting long game pedigree needed on the long, tough South Course.
Rico played here last year and missed the cut and it must be said struggled hugely on the South Course on day two carding a 75. That said we have to take this in context of his start to life on the PGA Tour where he missed his first four cuts and didn’t post a top 30 until April.
In June though everything changed as Rico posted an out of the blue sixth place. From there on in he made every cut for the remainder of the year bagging three further top tens including narrowly missing out on a debut tour title when losing in a play off at the ISCO when we were on board.
Rico has started 2025 in solid fashion making the cut at the Sony and being at the top of the leaderboard through 36 holes at the American Express last week before ultimately fading over the weekend. Still though he actually ranked first for GIR on the measured rounds and it was only a horrible performance with the putter, which derailed him. This week though back on greens he should be far more comfortable on and on a track that I see as perfect for him I expect him to push on and deliver a big performance.
VINCENT NORRMAN – 200/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Finally having started this week with one Swedish superstar I’ll wrap up going full circle with another slightly forgotten Swede Vincent Norrman.
Norrman burst on to the scene in 2023 winning on both sides of the Atlantic, at the Barbasol on the PGA Tour and in Ireland on the DP World Tour.
Heading in to 2024 then expectations were huge for Vincent however whether it be the pressure to push on, the illness that forced him to pull out of some events in the summer or trying to juggle two tours he completely lost his way and had quite frankly an awful year.
Starting out 2025 though the signs have been far more encouraging for Ludvig’s former roommate as he notched a 37th place at the Sony and then followed it up with 29th at the Amex last week. Furthermore in the measured rounds at the Amex on the Stadium Course he ranked ninth off the tee, second in approach and seventh in good old fashioned GIR so his trademark long game appears to be returning.