Sony Open
Sony Open
Jan 06, 2025Sony Open
It was a pretty humdrum start to 2025 for us with none of our team of four seriously in the hunt at any point of the week.
Our headline pick Justin Thomas was slow out of the blocks on Thursday and from thereon in was always off the pace.
The event itself turned in to the usual low scoring birdie fest we’ve come to expect at Kapalua and come Sunday it was basically a shoot out between Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa. The Japanese star who had lead from the outset was always in control though and he ended up triumphing with a PGA Tour record low score for a 72 hole event of 35- under.
So with the first event of 2025 wrapped up we move on to the second event and the second leg of the ‘Hawaii swing’ the Sony Open.
The Sony Open was first played on the PGA Tour in 1965 and has been held at the same venue Waialae Country Club since its inception.
The first lead sponsor was United Airlines who took up the duties in 1991 before current sponsor Sony took over the reins in 1999.
The most recent edition of the event will be remembered for being where Grayson Murray posted his second and final PGA Tour win before he tragically took his own life a few months later and I am sure this weeks tournament will pay well deserved tributes to Murray.
The strength of field benefits from a knock on effect from the increased field size at last weeks Sentry with 33 of the 59 players who teed it up in Maui making the trip to Ohau. The winner at Kapalua Hideki Matsuyama who looks to go back to back in Hawaii and bag his second Sony title is the star attraction, however the majority of the biggest names who were in Maui such as, Xander Schuffele, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa are not in attendance.
At the time of writing Matsuyama is a clear favourite with Corey Conners next in the market.
COURSE
As noted above the event has been hosted at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu since it was first played on tour in 1965.
The course was designed by Seth Raynor who also designed the Old White Course used for the Greenbrier.
The course is a Par 70 playing to just over 7000 yards and features Bermuda Greens.
The two par 5s are the 9th and the 18th. Both are great birdie opportunities with the 9th usually playing to the easier stroke average of the two.
While the fairways aren’t overly tight at Waialae it is important to find them as the key to success here is accurate approach play in to smallish greens to set up plenty of birdie opportunities. In a nutshell strong iron play and a hot putter will be the order of the day to get the job done.
As is always the case in Hawaii wind is also a key factor here and how much it blows is largely responsible for dictating how tough or otherwise the course will play.
HISTORY
So, let’s take a look at the last ten winners;
2024 – G Murray
2023 – SW Kim
2022 – H Matsuyama
2021 – K Na
2020 – C Smith
2019 – M Kuchar
2018 – P Kizzire
2017 – J Thomas
2016 – F Gomez
2015 – J Walker
2014 – J Walker
The most important factor to note here is that eight of the last 11 editions of the event, have been won by a player who had played in the Sentry event the week before, so it pays to focus on those who teed it up at Kapalua.
Until 2020 we were on a streak of six from six in relation to this stat however Cameron Smith’s victory broke the run. Prior to the Aussie’s success the last player to win here without playing in Maui the week before was Russell Henley in 2013. Henley is also the most recent player to officially win their first tour title here, however Smith’s previous success was in the Zurich pairs event so realistically you can say he added to that number.
2021 and 2022 saw a return to the norm with players who had played the week before triumphing in the shape of Na and Matsuyama however 2023 champion Si Woo Kim and Murray last year again bucked the trend by winning on their first start of the year.
It is worth noting though that both of the players that Murray beat in a play off last year, Ben An and Keegan Bradley, had teed it up in Maui the previous week.
As we can see from the table below, which shows the finish of the winner of the Sony at Kapalua the week before, while it is not necessarily the case that the player who has won in Honolulu was right in the mix at Kapalua, a solid week there has as a rule historically been the order of the day with prior to 2021 Jimmy Walker’s 21st place finish in 2014 being the worst showing of any of the seven winners here who had played the previous week. In 2021 however Kevin Na bucked that trend by winning here having finished a lowly 38th at Kapalua the week before.
Sentry ToC Finish
2024 – G Murray DNP.
2023 – SW Kim DNP
2022 – H Matsuyama 13th
2021 – K Na 38
2020 – C Smith DNP
2019 – M Kuchar 19th
2018 – P Kizzire 15th
2017 – J Thomas 1st
2016 – F Gomez 6th
2015 – J Walker 2nd
2014 – J Walker 21st
2013 – R Henley DNP
2012 – J Wagner 9th
The obvious conclusion from the above is that while great form the week before isn’t a requisite a ‘run out’ the previous week is as a rule of significance.
To add to this it is worth noting that although Cam Smith broke the streak in 2020 of winners who had tee’d it up at Kapalua the young Aussie had been in action in the big events held in Australia and in the Presidents Cup well in to December so it could be argued he was still very much ‘match sharp’ when he arrived at Waialae CC.
Four of the last 11 winners were not American [SW Kim, Matsuyama, Smith & Fabien Gomez] while looking at the winners from the US it is clear this event as a whole has been a domain for players who either hail from southern states or had a proven track record in events played in eastern/southern states of the US.
There have been two wins from Texas based Walker [as well as wins for Texan’s Johnson Wagner & Ryan Palmer in previous years] while other winners from the US over the past ten years, Grayson Murray, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire and Justin Thomas also fit this bill [as does 2013 winner Russell Henley] with Vegas resident Na again the one who bucked this pattern.
In other words while you can ‘never say never’, not unsurprisingly allowing for the Bermuda greens, this is not historically an event won by players hailing from the West Coast of the US.
The next stat that certainly leaps out from recent years is that two players who have won here, Kuchar and Kizzire also won the Mayakoba the previous fall, a feat that was also achieved in 2011/12 by Johnson Wagner. Finally, more recently then of course, Waialae specialist Russell Henley added the Mayakoba trophy to his cabinet in 2022. Sadly now of course Mayakoba no longer hosts a PGA Tour event, however it could still pay to look at past history there.
Meanwhile following Si Woo’s win in 2023 it is striking that four of the last eight winners, The South Korean, Smith, Kuchar and Thomas have also triumphed at TPC Sawgrass.
There is no doubt then that these two courses correlate well here!
In addition to form at the Mayakoba and The Players it is also worth looking at form at events held at other short coastal tracks such as the RBC Heritage, The RSM Classic and the Bermuda Championship.
Finally on a course correlation front the obvious link with The Greenbrier, also designed by Seth Raynor, is there to see with 2021 winner Kevin Na and runner up Joaquin Niemann both having triumphed at The Old White.
While past course form is always useful it doesn’t seem hugely pertinent here. Grayson Murray had missed the cut in his only previous start here prior to last years win, Si Woo Kim had finished fourth here on debut in 2016 but had managed nothing better than 25th in four subsequent visits prior to his win while 2022 champion Maysuyama had a best of 12th and only two top 20s in eight previous starts. 2018 winner Patton kizzire had missed the cut on his only previous visit and Fabien Gomez had a best of 67th in three previous visits, and of course Henley was making his debut.
Conversely though 2019 winner Matt Kuchar had a really solid bank of form here, which saw him finish 13th in 2016 and third, sixth and fifth in the three years prior to that while 2020 winner Cam Smith had finished in the top thirty here the previous three years with a best of 18th so he had also built up some good history here.
Jimmy Walker had notched one top five here in plenty of previous visit and Na had played here 13 times prior to winning and had posted three top ten’s amongst plenty of poorer performances and MC so he had a real mixed bag here.
The highest winning score in the last 10yrs is -11 from Smith last year when the wind was an issue however as a rule the winning score has been -20 or lower with Matsuyama posting 23- under in 2022. Si Woo posted 19- under in 2023 while last year in trickier conditions Grayson Murray finished on 17- under alongside An and Bradley before triumphing in the play off. Ultimately though if the wind does not get up this is clearly a low scoring event.
WEATHER FORECAST
We could see some showers early in the week however as things stand the tournament days look set to be dry with temperatures sitting in the low to mid 80s.
The wind, which is the courses main defence looks like it could play a part with all days showing possible gusts in the forecast of above 20mph.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows;
MAVERICK MCNEALY – 25/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 45th
I will start this week with two fairly obvious selections from near the top of the betting who were both in Maui last week, the first of which is Maverick McNealy.
Long touted as a potential superstar on the PGA Tour it has taken McNealy much longer than many thought to bag his maiden tour title, however he finally got over the line at the RSM Classic at the end of 2024.
The fact that when Maverick’s win came it came on a shorter coastal venue should come as no surprise as he has shown clearly that he is hugely comfortable on this type of layout.
With his family having had a holiday home at Pebble Beach McNealy has shown how much he enjoys playing that hallowed layout with a fifth and a second place to his name in the annual AT&T Pro-Am. Furthermore he has notched a fourth place finish at the RBC Heritage, four top 12 finishes by the coast in Mexico and a seventh place finish at this week’s venue Waialae CC.
Having finished 2024 with finishes of sixth and 16th in his two starts prior to the year ending win at the RSM you would have forgiven Maverick if he had started 2025 a bit slowly, however the opposite was the case in that he performed superbly at Kapalua on debut to finish eighth.
Furthermore what caught my eye was that he ranked fifth for the week off the tee and in approach play, normally his weak link, while his usual strength his short game and putting held him back slightly. As we know though Kapalua is notoriously tricky on and around the greens for debutants so I would expect him to pick up on that front this week.
With McNealy having now bagged his first title, with confidence clearly sky high it would be no surprise to see him notch his second win soon after the first, and having marked our card so prominently last week he is a ‘must’ for me here on an ideal shorter coastal test.
AUSTIN ECKROAT – 40/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Austin Eckroat enjoyed a hugely successful breakout year in 2024 landing his maiden PGA Tour title at the Cognizant Classic and then following up at the back end of the year in Mexico when we were onboard.
Clearly then Austin’s star is hugely on the rise and as long as he stays fit and healthy I see him as a player who could have a massive impact over the next few years.
Starting 2025 at Kapalua Austin gave a very credible account of himself on debut posting an eye catching 15th place, ranking 13th in approach play and fifth on the greens.
A native of Oklahoma Austin has shown us already how comfortable he is playing in windy conditions, in particular of course when winning at PGA National so if the breezes do pick up this week he will be in his element.
Meanwhile to back up further that he is comfortable by the coast we can draw on the fact that in his two years on tour he also has a fifth place at the Corales and an eighth place at the RSM to his name. In addition having started his full PGA Tour career poorly at the outset of the wrap around 22-23 season he came out of the gates quickly when teeing it up here to start 2023 to finish 12th. Furthermore he opened up here in 2024 strongly with rounds of 65 and 66 before fading slightly over the weekend.
A third win for Austin in less than 12 months might seem a bit of a stretch however I do feel he is a special talent who could go on to be a Major Champion and I would not rule him out of making the Ryder Cup team this year.
I’m happy to stick with him then to keep his strong momentum going on a challenge which we know is very much to his liking.
DANIEL BERGER – 55/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Next up I will return to player who was on pretty much everyone’s radar at the back end of 2024 including mine, Daniel Berger.
As has been well documented Berger had an 18 month absence from the tour due to a major back injury before returning at the back end of January 2024. Once he returned it is fair to say that it took Daniel a long while to get back in to the swing of things and he headed in to the Fall series with only one top 20 to his name all year.
Finally, by his own admission only just feeling 100% again, things clicked for Berger at the Sanderson Farms event where he posted a seventh place finish. On the outside looking in Daniel then proceeded to make all the Fall event cuts and a superb runner up finish at the RSM, saw him in the end comfortably retain his card at 100th place in the final Fedex standings.
As well as hopefully sending him in to 2025 in great spirits that finish at Sea Island gives us a nice piece of correlating form on a coastal track. If we then add in that Berger is a former winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, has a top three finish to his name at Hilton Head, a runner up finish in Puerto Rico and has an excellent record at PGA National it is clear he is very comfortable by the coast and will be more than comfortable in the wind if it picks up.
We can also take great comfort from the fact that three of his four wins on tour have come at TPC Southwind [x2] and Colonial showing that a lot of his best golf comes on Par 70 layouts.
Meanwhile in relation to his form at Waialae CC Daniel has teed it up here on six occasions making the cut on every visit with a best finish of seventh on his most recent start here in 2021.
We also know that as a Florida native he fits the bill of previous winners here with East Coast ties who are comfortable on the Bermuda surfaces.
Assuming he stays healthy I fully expect Daniel to win again in 2025 and I am keen to have him onside as he starts the year on a track, which is very much in his wheelhouse.
RYO HISATSUNE – 175/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 65th
Next up I will take a chance on Ryo Hisatsune.
Shorter in length off the tee Ryo will find many PGA courses do not play to his strength of a neat and tidy accurate tee to green game, some though such as Sedgefield CC where he was third last year do and I would put Waialae CC very much in that bracket.
Still only 22 Ryo earnt his PGA Tour playing rights through his superb win on the DP World Tour in Paris in 2023 and he comfortably held on to his PGA card in 2024 finishing 93rd in the end of year standings.
With a year’s experience under his belt then and seeing courses now for the second time I can see Hisatsune pushing on this year and having played nicely on this short par 70 layout on debut to finish 30th I can see him improving considerably on that effort this year.
Fifth also in putting here last year Ryo clearly took a shine to the greens, which bodes well upon his return.
Ryo finished his 2024 on the PGA Tour strongly making his final four cuts, rounding things out with another strong effort by the coast when 17th at the RSM.
As we know Japanese players tend to feel very comfortable in Hawaii and if Ryo is looking for some inspiration to start 2025 he need look no further than his fellow countryman Matsuyama’s performance in Maui last week.
JOEL DAHMEN – 200/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Finally I will take a chance at the odds that Joel Dahmen can come out of the blocks flying in 2025 on the back of his card saving heroics at the RSM in the Fall.
Dahmen’s 2024 as a whole was of course a season to forget as he battled with his game throughout the year failing to post any finishes of note other than a tenth place in Canada and, interestingly for this week, an 11th place at the correlating Sawgrass.
As a result Joel headed in to the Fedex Fall events needing some strong performances to finish in the top 125. A mixed bag in the Fall, which included a best of 14th in Mexico and a WD after being penalised for having 15 clubs in his bag at the Shriners saw him heading in to the final event, the RSM right on the cusp of the 125. Credit to Joel then as after making a 6ft putt on his final hole on Friday to make the cut he produced a scintillating Sunday 64 to move through the field and bag just enough points to finish in 124th.
Afterwards an emotional Dahmen was rightly proud of his efforts but also fully appreciative and thankful to those who stood by him through such a difficult year.
On to 2025 then and Joel starts off with a clean slate and surely a determination to not find himself in a similar position this year.
A look at Joel’s course form doesn’t give us too much to get excited about, however he did finished 12th here in 2021.
As noted though past course form isn’t really something to get too caught up on here and instead then I would prefer to focus on Joel’s efforts on correlating tracks. Firstly a look at his historical record at the correlating Mayakoba shows us best finishes of third and sixth with six made cuts from six, while he has top ten finishes on his CV by the coast at the RSM and Pebble Beach. Furthermore his lone tour win came by the coast at the Corales. Finally in addition to some strong Sawgrass form as already noted, Joel has a fifth place at the Greenbrier to his name. Good form in all the right places then.
As superb ball striker, who is not the longest off the tee Dahmen tends to thrive on shorter tracks and if he can have a ‘go week’ with his nemesis the putter he could just start 2025 in spectacular style, on the back of his heroic end to 2024.