PGA FRL Picks & Trader Selection
FIRST ROUND LEADER
RYAN MOORE – 80-1 – 1/2pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8 – 8.45am TEE TIME - NO RETURN
The first of my three FRL picks is Vegas man Ryan Moore.
Regular readers will know that I have been keeping a close eye on Moore this season with the expectation of some big results being around the corner.
Unfortunately though whilst Ryan has produced some really solid stuff at times through the year he is yet to have that one big week.
Last time out Ryan produced another solid week to finish 12th at the Open.
Now after a couple of weeks rest Moore heads to a course offering a classical tree lined test, which should suit his accurate tee to green game.
On this basis I gave serious consideration to including Moore in my main team this week, however whilst I expect another solid showing from him ultimately he will most likely come up short of being right in the thick of things come Sunday.
I do however think Ryan has a decent chance of getting of to a fast start on Thursday when the pressure is off and this is the market I have therefore chosen to support him in.
My logic in thinking this is that we have seen from Ryan’s performances over the years that when he does have a really good week he tends to be ‘at it’ from round 1, he is not historically the sort of player who ‘back doors’ his way through the field to a high finish.
Therefore if we believe as I do that Ryan will perform well this week I would rather chance him at a slightly shorter price in the FRL market than in the outrights.
BEAU HOSSLER – 80 -1 – 1/2pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 – 12.31 PM TEE TIME NO RETURN
Next up for us this In this market is Beau Hossler.
Hoss is another player who has been heavily on my radar this season and I am still only to vividly remembering how Ian Poulter’s 25ft putt on the 18th at Houston cost us pulling of a big 150-1 ‘touch’.
Since that near miss Beau has settled in to a really solid run of form with no missed cuts to his name and another 2nd place finish at the Travelers.
What has been particularly noticeable from Beau in this run of form is how he has performed on Thursday’s with his last four opening rounds on US Soil being 65 65 66 64.
I expect another solid week to come from Beau for reasons I explain a bit further below in my ‘trader’ pick, and allowing for his really strong round 1 play of late I am keen to have him onside in this market.
DUSTIN JOHNSON – 20-1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - 12.53 PM TEE TIME FINISHED 10 way tie for 5th
I made my case for including DJ in my main team this week in my outright preview and I feel compelled to run with him in this market as well.
As we know Dustin closed out the week at Firestone in spectacular fashion and it is quite possible that he will keep that momentum rolling on to a fast start this week.
We have seen from Dustin before a propensity for him to start quickly at Majors when he opened with a 67 at Oakmont, a 65 at Chambers Bay, a 65 at St Andrews, a 66 at Whistling Straits and most recently with a 67 to lead after round 1 at Shinnecock Hills in this years US Open.
In addition as recently as last month of course DJ began his campaign for this year’s US Open with a 67 which saw him tied for the day 1 lead.
On this basis and therefore as I am expecting DJ to be right in the mix come Sunday I am keen to include him in our FRL staking plan as well.
BEAU HOSSLER – CURRENTLY TRADING @ 270 MISSED CUT
I hinted when running with Beau in my FRL picks above I have also chosen to go with him as my ‘trader’ selection this week.
The main logic to my thinking here is of course if Beau does start well as I am hoping his exchange price will drop straightaway based on that fast start.
In addition however even if Beau doesn’t make the frame in the FRL market I am optimistic he can stick around for the week and even go close to making the places frame come Sunday.
After all we are talking about a special talent who was in the top 10 of the US Open after three rounds in 2012 when playing as a 17yr old amateur.
Other than his really solid play this year my reasoning for thinking Beau will perform well this week is that I believe the course will be right up his alley.
There are two reasons for this. Firstly his really strong putting should be a great asset on the large undulating greens the players face.
Secondly Beau should feel really comfortable on the unusual Zoysia grass fairways the players face this week.
This is because one of the few courses on the PGA Tour that have the same grass on their fairways is Trinity Forest the new home of the Byron Nelson, and this as readers may remember from earlier this year is Beau’s home course.
There are therefore sound reasons to expect a strong week from Beau and I am keen to have him onside this week as our trader pick.